Racing To A Tie? Prez Contest Could Easily End Up Even

New Yorl Daily News ^ | March 27, 2004 | Helen Kennedy

[John W]

WASHINGTON - In 2000, it was a recount. This time, it could be a tie.

Yes, get ready for the horrifying possibility that this election could prompt a worse constitutional crisis than the last one did.

Four years after the electoral mess in Florida, the nation remains deeply polarized and polls in the swing states show a very real chance of an Electoral College tie.

"It's not as unlikely as most people might imagine," said Electoral College expert Michael White at the National Archives. "There are only about 16 states in play this time, so it doesn't take much figuring to get to a tie."

To win, a candidate needs 270 of the 538 electoral votes.

The way the states are leaning, there are several scenarios under which both George Bush and John Kerry end up with 269 - one electoral vote short.

In that case, the House of Representatives gets to pick the President. The House is controlled by the GOP, ensuring a Bush victory.

Bush's election via Supreme Court despite losing the popular vote has always left a shadow over his presidency. Getting to a tie is shockingly easy.

The simplest scenario is this: If all the states except Louisiana vote the same way in 2004 as they did in 2000, it's a tie.

Another scenario, plausible because polls are neck and neck in all four states, projects that two Al Gore states - Wisconsin and New Mexico - flip to Bush, and two Bush states - New Hampshire and Ohio - flip to Kerry.

Presto, it's even-steven again.

Come November, people may start getting nostalgic for a simple 36-day Florida recount.

The states that might swing it

Ohio

20 electoral votes

2000: Bush won by 165,019 votes

Current poll: Kerry 46%; Bush 44%

No Republican has ever been elected without carrying Ohio, but the jobs crisis could hurt Bush here.

New Mexico

5 electoral votes

2000: Gore won by 366 votes

Current poll: Kerry 44%; Bush 43%

Bush and his team have lavished visits on New Mexico, but Kerry only made a brief primary appearance.

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes

2000: Gore won by 5,704 votes

Current poll: Kerry 46%; Bush 43%

Wisconsin was the third closest state in 2000 and has since lost more than 80,000 manufacturing jobs.

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes

2000: Bush won by 7,211 votes

Current poll: Bush 45%; Kerry 39%

Bush's only Northeast victory in 2000, the state has lost nearly 18% of its manufacturing jobs in the past two years.

The wild cards

Florida

27 electoral votes

2000: Bush won by 537 votes

Current poll: Kerry 48%; Bush 45%

Dems aren't too confident, but say they don't need Florida if Kerry can bag Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania

21 electoral votes

2000: Gore won by 204,840 votes

Current poll: Kerry 45%; Bush 44%

Bush has visited Pennsylvania more than any other state, showing how key he considers the Keystone State.

[John W]

I disagree that this would be a "worse constitutional crisis than the last one...".It actually would be cut and dried compared to 2000.

[Jewels1091]

That would just be too much to take!!!!!!!!!!

[jocon307]

If this should happen (God forbid) it will show that the divide in our country is so deep that even attacks by outsiders bent our our annihilation did not heal it. It will be indicative of the fact that the "culture wars" are bigger and uglier than many (certainly I) even realized; that they are connected to larger world conflicts; and that they will become shooting wars eventually.

[raloxk]

a shooting war is in our future

[COEXERJ145]

Bush's election via Supreme Court despite losing the popular vote has always left a shadow over his presidency. Getting to a tie is shockingly easy.

I stopped reading after that...

[Cicero]

The Daily News is a clintonoid rag.

[Paleo Conservative]

Yes, get ready for the horrifying possibility that this election could prompt a worse constitutional crisis than the last one did.

What constitutional crisis? The Constitution is very clear as to the method of electing the president. If no candidate gets a majority of electoral votes, the House of Representatives votes by state delegation with each state having one vote. Any state that has a tied delegation has no vote. Voting continues till a president has been elected by a majority of state delegations.

[roadcat]

a shooting war is in our future

I agree. The demoncraps won't see reason, and are out for our blood. Conservatives can only play nice guy for so long, before we start punching back. Everyone get ready, it's coming.

[thoughtomator]

If Kerry gets 50 electoral votes I'll be impressed... he'll be going down like Mondale-Ferraro.

[new cruelty]

Yes, get ready for the horrifying possibility that this election could prompt a worse constitutional crisis Blah blah blah blather blather blather.

Keep that up, Helen Kennedy, and you'll go blind.

[thoughtomator]

I doubt it... hard to have a shooting war when one side is completely and voluntarily disarmed.

[Petronski]

Bush's election via Supreme Court despite losing the popular vote has always left a shadow over his presidency.

LIES!

[Polycarp IV]

It will be indicative of the fact that the "culture wars" are bigger and uglier than many (certainly I) even realized; that they are connected to larger world conflicts; and that they will become shooting wars eventually.

If there are still guns in our [global] citizens' hands by that point...otherwise it will just be jackbooted thugs shooting lambs.

I once heard a sermon about our times.

The priest was comparing the slaughter of pigs to the slaughter of lambs. When he was growing up he lived near a pig farm. At slaughter, pigs kick, bite, squeel, fight...anything. Its a loud bloody ugly mess.

Lambs, like the ones he saw while pastoring in Yugoslavia, lay down in their masters' arms while the slit their throat.

The priest, speaking in an openly apocalyptic fashion, said, "When your time comes, and it will come, are you going to go out like a pig, or like The Lamb.

Many years and gun purchases and gun training courses later, I had forgotten this sermon. After seeing The Passion of The Christ, and how Our Lord crawled onto His cross and spread His arms to be crucified, it hit me like a ton of bricks.

This time around, we Christians will be naked before the world, technology and chips and a Big Brother guaranteeing there will be no place to hide. No revolution against despots and tyrants.

Only the slaughter of the innocents by a New World Order.

What good will it do to try to fight the forces of anti-Christ in the worldly way of war?

We know if we follow Him, we will be persecuted.

But will we go out like a pig or like The Lamb? That might just be the central question posed by The Passion of The Christ, its just that we don't know it yet.

[templar]

This would be a truly interesting situation. It would be even more interesting if the tie was the result of another Supreme Court decision in some disputed State. I'd almost like to see it happen to see how the American populace would deal with it.

[dalebert]

Did anyone see the 1971 Kerry/O'Neil debate on CSPAN tonight. Kerry was awful and lied a lot.

[upchuck]

Just wait until the DemoCRAPS get through fooling around with all this electronic voting nonsense. The ease with which these machines can tampered is gonna make 2000 look like a walk in the park. It could be Feb or Mar before it all gets straightened out.

We should all fear electronic voting machines^.

a shooting war is in our future

I agree 100%. If we can't rip this country away from the socialist wackos by using the ballot box, you're right. We'll have to do it the hard way. It ain't gonna be pretty and I certainly don't look forward to it. Several million people will likely die before the libs give it up. We WILL WIN, of that I have no doubt. But the country will be badly damaged and become very vulnerable in the process.

[HarryCaul]

I could see an electoral tie. It wouldn't be pretty. But it wouldn't be a constitutional crisis, as it's something clearly accounted for in the rules.

Of course, half the country can't handle that Bush won by the rules last time, so I wouldn't expect it to go any better in 04.

[Indie]

If this race is even close...it will be evidence of the total successful destruction of America from within. All that will remain is to find a cave somewhere and become a monk..or commit hari-kari.

[KellyAdmirer]

Oh please, President Bush can't be tied or leading in virtually all the national polls and still be behind in every single one of those states except New Hampshire. What is this woman smoking? Pieces like this show the sad state of current "journalism," which is really just partisan manipulation of facts.

[Indie]

Correction...I changed my mind. I'd rather see a shooting war. Never surrender.