President, Washington State Poll (Kerry 47%-Bush 43%)

SurveyUSA ^ | 3/24/04

[LdSentinal]

President, WA

Kerry (D): 47%
Bush (R): 43%
Other/Undecided: 10%
Data Collected: 3/21/04 - 3/23/04

Geography: State of Washington
Sample Population: 698 Likely Voters
Margin of Error: 3.8%
Client: KING-TV Seattle

KHQ-TV Spokane

[spyone]

If Bush is only 3% back in Washington state, he is looking really good.

[Mariner]

Put Nader in the mix and we can win this state.......

I never wudda thunk it.

[joyce11111]

Prolly the questions were asked in King County.

[LdSentinal]

New Deal Generation is killing us:

65+

Kerry: 54%
Bush: 37%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 5%

18-35

Bush: 45%
Kerry: 42%
Other: 8%
Undecided: 5%

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

New Deal Generation is killing us: That doesn't suprise me. The old folks, like my grandparents, miss the good ole days of FDR and love their Social Security and Medicare.

What does suprise me is the fact that the college age vote is as close as it is in some of these polls. Gone are the days where college kids were leftists in this post-9/11 world.

I agree that Bush down 3% in lefty Washington is very encouraging especially when Nader is not factored in since there is a pretty high crunchy granolia quotient in that state.

[not_apathetic_anymore]

I never woulda thunk it either! Couldn't prove it by the gang I work with in King Cty. In my circle of acquaintace I think it's about GWB 30% Kerry 70%.

If I see a couple more polls like this I may need to send Ralphie some $$.

[MarkM]

Yes, this is good news if Bush has a shot in Washington state. Bush can win the presidency without Washington state but if Kerry can't win in a strongly liberal state like Washington he doesn't have a chance.

[Judith Anne]

And in a liberal state, after weeks and months of liberal attacks, that's the best Kerry can do?

Doesn't look good for him....

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

If Kerry loses Washington I think that means he'll lose in Oregon as well, which pretty much flushes his chances down the toilet.

Washington will certainly have a busy political year, with a competitive Senate race, an open governor's seat and two open congressional seats. Let's hope for W coattails!

[victoryatallcosts]

As I pointed out on another thread, there are two "good news" points on this poll.

1) Throw Nader in the mix, and Bush could manage a (very) narrow lead over Kerry even (he got 4% if WA last time).
2) Two days of this poll are March 22nd and 23rd (after the Clarke interview) meaning that the Rasumessen poll from today is probably the result of bad data (though we'll know that for sure in about nine hours).

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

As I pointed out on another thread, there are two "good news" points on this poll.

1) Throw Nader in the mix, and Bush could manage a (very) narrow lead over Kerry even (he got 4% if WA last time). 2) Two days of this poll are March 22nd and 23rd (after the Clarke interview) meaning that the Rasumessen poll from today is probably the result of bad data (though we'll know that for sure in about nine hours).

That Rasumssen poll seems to be loaded with some of Zogby's patented special sauce. How can a tracking poll change 6% in one day without some sort of methodology shift? I don't buy it.

[Fledermaus]

Bush only lost Washington by 139,000 votes. And it has 11 electoral votes.

[Fledermaus]

But they'll all be dead soon! Not to worry! lol

[america-rules]

Bush is running alot of very upbeat ads here in WA !

They have ads running not on the GOP web site. They say sponsored by Georgewbush.com but the ads aren't there and I haven't seen them on Fox or anywhere else.

They got some positive ads in under the radar !

[victoryatallcosts]

Only with bad data, basically. A 6% shift in one day in a tracking poll would mean something like an 18% shift in the final day's results. That just makes no sense.

[LdSentinal]

Yeah. Two-thirds of this poll was conducted after Sunday.

Welcome to FR, BTW.

[End_Clintonism_Now]

Kerry (D): 100%
Bush (R): 0%
Other/Undecided: 0%
Data Collected: 3/21/04 - 3/23/04

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Only with bad data, basically. A 6% shift in one day in a tracking poll would mean something like an 18% shift in the final day's results. That just makes no sense.

The only other way I can see the numbers to be so tweaked is if they somehow changed their formula or criteria for likely voters or their expected turnout numbers for Democrats. A shift of 6% in one day is odd for a tracking poll, even with Clark's statements.

[Salamander]

They should run ads featuring photos of the ChiCom nukes pointed directly at them, courtesy of Slick.