Officials Worry of Pre-Election Attack

AP ^ | 3-15-04 | TERENCE HUNT

[Indy Pendance]

WASHINGTON - Even before the bombings in Madrid, White House officials were worrying that terrorists might strike the United States before the November elections.

Now, with the Socialists' surprise election victory in Spain, analysts believe the ballot box rebuke of one of President Bush (news - web sites)'s closest allies in the war in Iraq (news - web sites) could embolden terrorists to try the same tactics in the United States to create fear and chaos.

"That's an amazing impact of a terrorist event, to change the party in power," said Jerrold Post, a former CIA (news - web sites) profiler who directs the political psychology program at George Washington University.

"The implications of this are fairly staggering," agreed political psychologist Stanley Renshon of City University of New York. "This is the first time that a terrorist act has influenced a democratic election. This is a gigantic, loud wakeup call. There's no one they'd like to have out of office more than George W. Bush."

In political terms, the question is whether an attack would cause Americans to rally around Bush or blame him for the nation's vulnerabilities.

Bush has made the war on terrorism his trademark issue, spending tens of billions of dollars at home and abroad in the name of fighting terrorists. Polls show it's his strongest suit in his re-election battle against Democrat John Kerry.

Traditionally, in times of peril, Americans have supported their president. After Sept. 11, 2001, Bush soared in the polls. That standing has softened over time but still remains strong, reinforced by the fact that America has not been hit again.

"People are critical of Bush in lots of ways but they still give him pretty good grades for dealing with the war on terrorism," said pollster Andy Kohut.

If there were an attack, he said, "the traditional effect is a rally."

But Kohut and others say the rally effect could diminish, particularly if Americans doubted Bush's ability to protect them or thought the war on Iraq played any part. His anti-terrorism standing might be weakened by other factors, too, such as doubts about his handling of the economy, analysts say.

How the Democrats responded to a possible attack would figure in as well.

"It has been made a political issue already," said Columbia University political scientist Robert Shapiro. "It's no longer the attack out of nowhere like 9-11 was," he said. "There's a context for it that's very different."

Kerry has been probing for Bush weaknesses on the international front, accusing the president of alienating allies at a time when the United States needed them the most. Kerry claims that some foreign leaders have told him privately that they would prefer him in the White House. The administration shot back Monday that Kerry ought to name names of foreign leaders, suggesting it would mean he lied if he failed to produce.

The administration has made no attempt to hide its concern about another attack.

"We live in an age of terror, in which ruthless enemies seek to destroy not only our nation and not only to destroy all free nations but to destroy freedom as a way of life," National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said last week. She spoke of "our worst nightmare" of attack by chemical, biological or nuclear weapons at the hands of terrorists.

Bush regularly talks about the threat in his stump speeches. In his State of the Union address, he said it was tempting to think, after more than two years, that the danger was behind Americans. "That hope is understandable, comforting and false," Bush said.

Brookings Institution political analyst Stephen Hess said issues such as terrorist attacks are troublesome for campaigns because they represent the unknown.

"Nothing bothers a politician or a strategist as much as trying to contemplate the unknown, trying to factor it in, what would happen."

[Finalapproach29er]

Does the Bush Admin. have a plan in place for election day mischeif?

[ysoitanly]

I agree with you. It's frightening that it appears Europe won't wake up. They seem to be agreeing with the 'appease' mentality of Kerry.

[Finalapproach29er]

Does the Bush Admin. have a plan in place for election day mischief?

[nutmeg]

We need your fantastic bumper sticker posted on this thread! :-)

[hosepipe]

Al-Quida is not known for being smart....
An attack before Nov.. would lock Bush in...

[Sam Cree]

"An actual attack that shut down or postponed a national election would have to be one heck of an attack."

IMO, whenever (not if ever) Al Qaeda gets a working nuke, they'll make plans to set it off in the USA. Without hesitation. The only way to make sure of preventing such a thing is to eradicate Al Qaeda and the rest of the terrorist gangs, along with the countries that provide them support.

Bush gets this, I believe. I think middle America may have decided it could be more fun to put its head in the sand. I hope not, but we'll see.

[Tuco Ramirez]

Most of the Spaniards that support the Bush policy are probably in the US, and it is a small number of them. Most Spanish have become fairly liberal since the end of the Franco government; they had much catching up to do (having missed the 60s, for all intents and purposes).

A majority of Spaniards opposed the intervention all along, and were very vocal about it in their own media.

Look at all the peace signs after the Madrid bombings, and contrast that with the US public's reaction to 9/11 (while the events were very different in magnitude, the impact on a country the size of Spain is almost comparable). Spain has finally caught up with the rest of Western Europe in its politics.

[nutmeg]

There's no one they'd like to have out of office more than George W. Bush.

Volumes could not say more.

Exactly! Let's bump that up a bit...

There's no one the terrorists would like to have out of office more than George W. Bush.

[MJY1288]

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

The perspective that, to me, is most significant is that the Islamists will view the Spain operation as a workable tactic for the future. The Dims can always be expected to exploit any circumstance to their favor, regardless of the affect on national security. They have more than proven this case.

[Will_Zurmacht]

We gotta hope so!

but really, what kind of plan do you put in place?
Thats the rub isn't it?

You really can't do anything about terrorist in the homeland. That's why Bush's policy of taking the fight to them is so much better.

I can and have come up with dozens of scenarios in which terrorist, once inside our borders, can strike with impunity. And even with heightened security, it is impossible to prevent everything. That's when I decided, If I can dream this cr@p up, trained terrorist can probably do better...so it's probablly impossible to completely prevent. We can either decide to accept it, and live like Israelis, or get medieval for a few years

There is also the great magnifier effect: the media.
Consider this....the DC Sniper, Olympic park bombing, etc. Not to diminish the suffering of those families and those Tragedies, but in sheer numbers, more people died in preventable car wrecks. You just don't see Catie Couric interviewing the victims 7 days straight

[Mo1]

I have a die hard sil, 'married' her girl friend in Vermont a couple years ago, lives in Madison WI, belongs to the wiccans, I kid you not

Wow .. that is bad but I can somewhat relate .. I have a sister that once claimed to believe in the wiccans .. and the neighborhood I grew up in has turned out the be a very happy neighborhood (if you know what I mean).

My one brother sounds almost like yours .. but he always wanted to be an only child ... so we let him *L*

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

[Indy Pendance]

Definately, so now AQ is bolder and feels stronger because Spain caved. It's only a matter of time before we see this wot a blown out war, good vs evil. It will be a WWII only, the countries will not be defined as in the historical past that will make it unique. It's extremely critical that President Bush win this election.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Roger that.

[Indy Pendance]

I have 4 brothers. Not counting the perot voter, one's an only brother as well, like you, that's his loss. Too bad for him.

[Will_Zurmacht]

That's the thing that really gets me in this one. It is a world war, but it's the toughest we've ever fought.

Our enemies don't have nation states. They definately have sympathetic nations, but no real capitol, etc.

And unlike our prior enemies, these folks can't be negotiated with or bombed into submission, they look forward to death. We are fighting a death cult........Makes one almost long for the Cold War...because even the commies wanted to see their children live...... when the push came to shove.

Our enemies today strap bombs on their kids and celebrate when they blow themselves up. How ya gonna hold a summit with that? Answer: you can't. All you can do is kill them.

[KC_for_Freedom]

I'll wager Kash N. Kerry will be preaching about how such a strike would not have been made unless the Iraq war happened. It's all Bush's fault.

John Kerry has already said if an attack happens, its Bush's fault for not doing enough. HE (Kerry) would do more to prevent attacks, like strengthen intelligence gathering and ties with the UN and foreign governments.

In Spain the reaction was panic and cowardice, "if we elect a different government, then we won't get in trouble like this again" In its essence, this reaction was also a complaint that the present government did not do enough to stop terrorism.

All Bush can do in this kind of attack is to show us every day that he is doing everything possible, and if he isn't (like at the borders) he is vulnerable to this criticism.

I don't believe Kerry will do more in any case, the other attack Bush can make is to show Kerry is a liar and soft on terrorism. He has to do at least one, and could just as easily do both.

[MJY1288]

Tom, Would you like a bumper Sticker? I have a few left and woul gladly send you a couple!, If so just Freepmail me an address where to send them and I will :-)

[Denver Ditdat]

If you really wanna get nasty, a few gun/ small bomb attacks on East Coast polling places like at 6 or 7 am would dramatically impact the vote across the nation.....for Bush or surrender I'm not real sure....Either way it'd be all over tv, even with a no to few casualties

Maximum exposure could probably come through shootings of ethnic minorities near polling places. Calypso Louie, Rev. Al, and Jesse Jackson would be spun to a fever pitch and quoted on every network. I agree with the East Coast speculation. Poison the well early. Look for disruption in Florida. I hope that the Bush administration has already wargamed this scenario or one like it and has a response ready to go.