Posted on 03/15/2004 6:19:08 PM PST by Indy Pendance
WASHINGTON - Even before the bombings in Madrid, White House officials were worrying that terrorists might strike the United States before the November elections.
Now, with the Socialists' surprise election victory in Spain, analysts believe the ballot box rebuke of one of President Bush (news - web sites)'s closest allies in the war in Iraq (news - web sites) could embolden terrorists to try the same tactics in the United States to create fear and chaos.
"That's an amazing impact of a terrorist event, to change the party in power," said Jerrold Post, a former CIA (news - web sites) profiler who directs the political psychology program at George Washington University.
"The implications of this are fairly staggering," agreed political psychologist Stanley Renshon of City University of New York. "This is the first time that a terrorist act has influenced a democratic election. This is a gigantic, loud wakeup call. There's no one they'd like to have out of office more than George W. Bush."
In political terms, the question is whether an attack would cause Americans to rally around Bush or blame him for the nation's vulnerabilities.
Bush has made the war on terrorism his trademark issue, spending tens of billions of dollars at home and abroad in the name of fighting terrorists. Polls show it's his strongest suit in his re-election battle against Democrat John Kerry.
Traditionally, in times of peril, Americans have supported their president. After Sept. 11, 2001, Bush soared in the polls. That standing has softened over time but still remains strong, reinforced by the fact that America has not been hit again.
"People are critical of Bush in lots of ways but they still give him pretty good grades for dealing with the war on terrorism," said pollster Andy Kohut.
If there were an attack, he said, "the traditional effect is a rally."
But Kohut and others say the rally effect could diminish, particularly if Americans doubted Bush's ability to protect them or thought the war on Iraq played any part. His anti-terrorism standing might be weakened by other factors, too, such as doubts about his handling of the economy, analysts say.
How the Democrats responded to a possible attack would figure in as well.
"It has been made a political issue already," said Columbia University political scientist Robert Shapiro. "It's no longer the attack out of nowhere like 9-11 was," he said. "There's a context for it that's very different."
Kerry has been probing for Bush weaknesses on the international front, accusing the president of alienating allies at a time when the United States needed them the most. Kerry claims that some foreign leaders have told him privately that they would prefer him in the White House. The administration shot back Monday that Kerry ought to name names of foreign leaders, suggesting it would mean he lied if he failed to produce.
The administration has made no attempt to hide its concern about another attack.
"We live in an age of terror, in which ruthless enemies seek to destroy not only our nation and not only to destroy all free nations but to destroy freedom as a way of life," National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice said last week. She spoke of "our worst nightmare" of attack by chemical, biological or nuclear weapons at the hands of terrorists.
Bush regularly talks about the threat in his stump speeches. In his State of the Union address, he said it was tempting to think, after more than two years, that the danger was behind Americans. "That hope is understandable, comforting and false," Bush said.
Brookings Institution political analyst Stephen Hess said issues such as terrorist attacks are troublesome for campaigns because they represent the unknown.
"Nothing bothers a politician or a strategist as much as trying to contemplate the unknown, trying to factor it in, what would happen."
If they pull off another WTC type attack, it could very possibly seal the election for Bush.
If our LEAs thwart another WTC type attack, it will definitely seal the election for Bush.
These were the people who were happy with Clinton because he was "one of us." These were the people for whom any problem not addressable by the UN is dismissed as the U.S.'s fault. Note the emphasis by the winner - the U.S. must place the UN in charge in Iraq or he's taking his troops home (so what?) and that Spain will come closer politically to France and Germany in an attempt to act as a counterweight to U.S. policy. The program and intention here is crystal-clear, and Mr. Kerry is very definitely also "one of us." What we are about to witness is a political alliance between the Spanish government and the people who murdered 200 of their citizens, in an attempt to unseat an American president who is not "one of us." It is difficult to imaginea a more cynical course of action.
I am disappointed in the Spanish vote and, frankly, surprised a little. The message is that terrorism works, and that is an open invitation to its repetition. "We'll agree with you if you just go bomb somebody else" is the pathetic bleating of a sheep whose highest aspiration is to be the last one to be eaten.
I think so ... I have a few of those liberals around my way and there are times I just want to scream
But then the middle of the road dems ... though I disagree with the view of politics ... they aren't completely over the edge like the hard left
They actually like their lives
The Spanish had a chance to stand tall. Under difficult circumstances, not everyone does. Particularly in Europe, the siren call for "security" is too tempting. Last week, the Spanish failed the calling. WE THE PEOPLE will not.
I have to disagree. I saw a snippet over at Lucienne.com (and another someplace else, memory fails) which said that the difference was about 5%. That's all it took, 5% to sway the election over to the socialists.
Now, think of the states in the upcoming election that are deemed "close" or "toss-ups". 5% could make a BIG difference in the electoral college.
We can only hope that our fellow Americans would not react like euro-weenies and vote for Kerry; but even if just a few switch over, it could mean big trouble for us and the World.
It's 2008 that concerns me. Big time.
But these terrorists don't care who they kill and that is why I said France and others are just as much of a target.
I've been 'worrying about that tomorrow'. Let's just get through this election. Have you noticed, the general elections are getting closer and closer?
I hope you're right, but I am astonished at their rapid capitulation to the terrorists. Do you know any Spaniards? I would really like to know what they are thinking right now. I've tried trolling a few Spanish sites, but my español is weak.
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