Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[demlosers]

The lefty media better get to work hahaha...

[Dog]

We all needed the boost...:-)

[freedumb2003]

I think the early polls were core constituents sending a message to Bush aboiut the illegal alien amnesty, the steel and farm subsidies and other very un-conservative things he has been behind.

When the question has been "are you dissapointed in Pres. Bush's presidency" my response is "Hell Yes!" How he can ignore the issues of the wave of illegals washing over our southern order is unbeleivable. But I will still vote for him. If Kerry wins, it is the final nail in the coffin of tradiitonal values -- the USA will go down the crapper forever. Kids will continue to be killed (but the date will probably be extended to the day before conception) and "values" and "morals" will mean "whatever makes you feel good."

In the meatime, I for one, have been using the polls to send a message to the good President in hopes he will not take my vote for granted.

[freedumb2003]

"You can't have health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack.

Powerful statement,... very good thinking.

Yeah, but UCLA Medical will be rolling in dough!

[MEG33]

State by state polls are much more reliable for how a candidate is doing,I agree.

[Howlin]

Very good news!

jw, can you post the other polls you saw this week?

[kittymyrib]

Is that woof in honor of that hang-dog Kerry look?

[ambrose]

.

[onyx]

Great way to start the weekend, huh?

[pending]

I would expect more of the same near term, given the Spanish mass murders.

I admit, that it emotionally brought me
back to me the feelings of post 9/11, seeing all the folks in the streets. The same thing has to be happening to folks here,too. It is now a common shared experience, between
our countries.

Couple of weeks of bad polls and the Big D will start
chewing its leg. Tere is no great enthusiasm for Kerry,
The only common thread,
anger can easily turn on him.
Hope its not too soon before the convention, they could still do an about face if he really crashes.

[gitmo]

I hope you're right. But I see anecdotal evidence to the contrary.

My MIL, for instance, is a staunch Rat. After 9/11, she shocked me when she said, "I think this president is an awfully good one." But talk to her today, and she'll tell you 9/11 was all Bush's fault, that the economy is worse than the Great Depression (and don't argue with her. She was there!) And Bush is breaking all "international law" by attacking a defenseless country. Plus he got rich on all that oil over in Iraq.

[gitmo]

Good post, Dog!

[PsyOp]

Anyone know where I can get "Nader for President" bumper stickers? ;-]

[Jeff Chandler]

it is too early yet, and I fully expect the DNC to pull a federal level NJ2002 on us come October, and swap Hillary for Kerry once he has been battered to bits by Dubya.

Entirely possible.

[Kaslin]

"You can't have health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack."

Let's change that to

"You don't need health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack."

[Jeff Chandler]

If Bush is smart he needs to solicite "unsolicited soft money " ads from third parties now as he will need to use his cash for the 60 day blitz between the September convention and the election as CFR rules will be in effect then.

I think he has to spend the money he has built up before he is renominated at the Republican convention. After that he will be using federal money. That would be the time to use "unsolicited soft money".

Does anybody know if I am wrong about that?

[My2Cents]

Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

HAHAHAHAHAAA!!!

[My2Cents]

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

Very interesting.

[King Prout]

my money is on 18 Oct 04 for the announcement:

AP/March 18, 2002 - "In order to answer the urgent need to provide the American public with a real choice between candidates, I have with great reluctance agreed to accept the Democratic National Convention's summons to stand for election to the Office of the President of the United States. It's for the children. Really." said New York Senator Hillary Rodham, as she solemnly addressed an ecstatic gathering of supporters. "It takes a village to rule -ah, govern- a democracy like ours."
Meanwhile, the embattled Senator John Flipper Kerry, dogged by months of bad poll numbers stemming from vicious Republican-funded attack advertisements, was last seen in a bar on Friday night. Witnesses report that the despondent erstwhile candidate appeared depressed, and was overheard muttering something about Vince Foster.
Sen. Kerry's present whereabouts are not known.

[My2Cents]

This is exactly what happened with Arnold.

Precisely. And there is good evidence that the LA Times polls leading up to the final week of the recall election, showing either Arnold losing, or the race a toss-up, were an intentional fraud to knock the legs out from under Arnold. I do not put it past the media polls to lie and spin in order to promote their leftist agenda.