Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[Choose Ye This Day]

The founding fathers, never wanted career politicians

Amen to that.

[ultima ratio]

Rasmussen has Bush up by a couple of points. But even more than this it claims to detect a subterranean shift, with more people identifying Kerry as liberal.

[MinuteGal]

I'm happy that Nader is hanging around 6%. He'll also pick up some additional votes from the disgruntled Deaniac pack.

I'm contentedly purring that Ralph threw his cap in the ring. The Dims must be going mad!

While we're delighted with the latest polls, let's remember a lurker who is reading the polls also. The Hildabeest will note every point that Kerry slips.

Leni

[A_Niceguy_in_CA]

Is it also true that the only time Kerry returned to Washington to vote in the past year is when the Senate was voting for a bill that included raising taxes?

[Liz]

This message must reach every Christian pastor, church, and group in America. It's important for our nation's future to let people know that Kerry is in the clutches of secularism. Kerry's ill-conceived remarks about The Passion demonstrate that he will strengthen secularists chokehold over our culture.

Kerry's radical secular liberalism includes (1) abortion worship (he has a 100% pro-abortion voting record), (2) support for the lawless homosexual takeover of the institution of marriage, and (3) aiding and abetting the secularist rampage to eradicate every vestige of Christianity from American culture.

[samtheman]

I've answered every online poll for Nader. Let Kerry go even further Left trying to grab those 5%... then give them a nice surprise in November: "Whoops! Didn't get enough dead people voting... apparently the Dems didn't actually have that much support!" ;^)

Excellent. Well done. I'm going to start doing it myself. I would love to see political polling go down the toilet. If enough people lied to the pollsters, that would be the end of it, and we would be left with "only the elections" to determine the winner.

[samtheman]

You sound like a Democrat. Voting outside the two-party candidates is not "throwing your vote away".Maybe they just really don't like Kerry and what he stands for.If I was forced to chose between Nader and Gore back in 2000 the choice would be easy.

Look. If I thought that my words here would persuade even a single Nader voter to switch his/her vote to Kerry, I wouldn't be posting them. But I assume I'm among friends here. I assume that the number of Nader voters actually reading FR, and then actually seeing my post, and then actually being persuaded by it is exactly zero. I think that's a safe assumption.

Given the fact that the people reading these words are either Bush voters, Libertarians or DUers (casing out the opposition) I don't think I'm harming Bush by pointing out the obvious:

Nader voters have a lot more in common with Kerry voters than they do with Bush voters. They are absolute ignoramuses if they ignore what happened in 2000 and vote for nimrod Nader again.

And I apply that same thinking to Libertarians (who I assume have more in common with Bush voters than with Kerry voters): It's stupid to throw your vote away.

Spin it any way you want, but this election is an important one and it's down to two candidates. The only other choices are different brands of garbage cans.

So I repeat, I cannot imagine what goes on in the "brains" of someone voting 3rd party this year.

[samtheman]

My in-laws always vote for the third party. They despise the rats for forsaking the Rule of Law and Pubs for being spineless. Although I disagree with them,, they make a point worth thinking about.

Those aren't reasons for voting for Nader. There's only one reason to vote for Nader: you believe in ending the Republic of America and beginning the new Socialist State of America.

With all due respect, either your inlaws are deeply left-wing socialists or they are very very misinformed about the political realities of a) the Left Wing in America, b) Naders place in the pantheon of the Left, c) their own opinions about the value of the Left.

[BamaAndy]

Thanks for the post. I pray President Bush wins all fifty States. Maybe then the democrat liars and thieves will get the message.

[firewalk]

Thanks for the ping

[BibChr]

Every time Kerry opens his poison yap, the more unprofessional he looks. Kerry will destroy himself.

[Sarcasm-not-directed-at-you,-but-at-the-American-voting-public Alert in three... two... one...]

Right. Because we know Americans would never actually elect a baldly-lying, anti-American, arguably treasonous, unprincipled, liberal trainwreck of a man to the Presidency, right? And especially, they would never RE-elect him if his first term had been shameful and scandal-ridden... right?

< /sarcasm >

I won't relax until all the polls show at least a double-digit Bush lead. And THEN I'll worry that Bush's support will ease off through over-confidence.

Know what I mean?

Dan

[PROUDAMREP]

I've already ordered my Bush/Cheny t shirts and am wearing them wherever I can. You're right. It does give me personal satisfaction to let EVERYONE know I support this man and not the glib-tongued frenchie who seems to want world rule for our country. I also bought a t shirt for my grandson and we wear them to the venues for children. This is exposure to the young generation.

[jempet]

I got some bunker stickers. And I'm giving them out in my area to those that aren't afraid to use them.

[BibChr]

We're thinking along very much the same lines, in all you said.

Yes, Kerry is not as "good a liar" as He Who Will Not Be Named. But when one sees the media so blatantly and overwhelmingly doing all it can to make Bush look horrible, to gloss and glaze over Kerry's idiocies and evils, to pump up his candidacy... well, you know how many still actually believe the media. It's concerning.

If it were just me, that's one thing. But I have kids. I... well, you know the rest.

God's been extraordinarly merciful, gracious, long-suffering. We richly deserve nothing but His judgment. But one prays that He will extend just a bit more grace... and far more, that He will bring a sweeping, root-to-branch revival. Genuine revival literally made this country. The 1900's passed without even one. It's grim, and we have no excuse.

Dan

[King Prout]

...and IF John Flipper Kerry is literally DEAD...?

Think Vince Foster.
Think Ron Brown.

They have done it before.

[Jaguar Girl]

Thanks for the ping to this good news.

[Jeff Chandler]

Shortly after the Republican convention, in late August, I suspect most states will have accepted the filings for the recognized political party electors and candidates names, in accordance with various state deadlines. From that point forward, the 'Rats are stuck.

Good info. Thanks.

[raloxk]

So youre telling me that all it took was 10 days of no primary news and presto Bush is leading again? Was Kerry really ever leading?

I looked at the primary calendar and basically there are no more big multi-state primaries that will cause news.