Bush Takes Back The Lead As 'Primary Effect' Wanes (Good News!)

Investor Business Daily ^ | March 13 2004 | NA

[Dog]

President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest.

The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader.

In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.

A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds.

now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest.

Bush's lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerry's lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bush's lead widened to 18 points from 13.

In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points.

"The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's polling partner.

Now, after Democratic candidates' months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said.

The president's ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution.

Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibson's blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ."

In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same.

In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided.

In a three-way race, Bush's lead expands by 2 percentage points – 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%.

Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush.

"Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur.

The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points.

[GeorgeW23225]

Thank God the American people are returning to their senses!!

[AmishDude]

Look for huge Nader numbers in safe states, too. I wonder if Nader will get 10% in Texas.

[txrangerette]

FYI, I was polled by IBD in '03.
Some of the poll was about how
the Pres. was handling various
issues, among a lot of ??? that
went on for some time. I thought
the approach was objective and
fair. Only time in my life one
of the national opinion polls
reached me, that I recall.

I gave totally honest answers.
Plenty of folks don't, so I've
heard...

[txrangerette]

See post #143

[Grassontop]

Nader's vote total may swell to 8% or more as disgruntled Democrats cast protest votes.

| NADER EQUALS DISENFRANCHISED VOTERS! And there goes another session to the courts, but which state will it be in this time?

[BigSkyFreeper]

You can't have health care .....if we are all dead from a terrorist attack.

That would be a campaign ad right there.

[BigSkyFreeper]

People on this site need to realize something .......9/11 changed everything.

The backpack bombings on that commuter train in Madrid should serve as a reminder that terrorism still exists in its most ugly form.

[BigSkyFreeper]

Kerrey's had his post-convention bounce.

I agree. Kerry's long since past his peak and is slowly beginning to fade. He knows this, the rest of America knows this. Which may explain why he's not defining himself, to prevent the ultimate demise of his campaign.

[BigSkyFreeper]

I believe this poll as well as all those others. The Bush ads have grabbed the attention of the American voter and this poll shows that effect.

[WOSG]

"two of them just can't really vote for Horse Face as a leader of this country during these "uncertain" times, and the other one won't vote for Horse Face after hearing he voted to raise taxes 350 times." That last factoid was a new one for me. 350 times he raised taxes? He's been in Washington a long time but still that's a lot.

As Reagan would say, "He never met a tax he didnt hike."

[WOSG]

I dont think so. Nader is passe and most on the left are now annoyed at his vanity campaign after the 2000 situation. he will garner about what Buchanan got in 2000, under 1%. JMHO.

[WOSG]

The bombing in Spain ...

... is just a wake-up call that we cant afford a 9-10 President in a 9-11 world. Kerry should apologize for demeaning Bush by alleging that the terrorist threat is 'exagerrated' - it isnt. Kerry is wrong and he desreves to lose.

[WOSG]

Every little bit helps.

Here in Texas Bush's victory is a forgone conclusion, but we've got the bumper sticker on the car. It serves the local liberals on notice.

[DrDeb]

Please ping our DOSE list to this thread -- it features an article detailing the
RED state/BLUE state results from the IBD/TIPP poll that I mentioned last evening on the DOSE. GOOD STUFF!!!


HOPE YOU'RE HAVING A GREAT EVENING WITH MR. OHIO!!

[FRgal4u]

Barron's - a widely read weekly paper for investors - has a cover story this weekend, claiming Bush is good for stocks, Kerry good for bonds. The story claims Kerry will raise taxes and will be more widespread than the "only those who made over 200,000 will get a raise" claim from Kerry. Overall, a pretty balance article and pretty much tell investors that if Kerry wins, don't get caught long on stocks. Hehehehe..

In America, 140 million own stocks in one form or another, should be interesting if the message that Kerry is bad for the stock market catches on, if yes, Kerry will lose the suburban male votes in significant margins and that could be just enough to tip states like PA into Bush camp. If Bush wins PA, keep OH and FL, this race is his to lose.

[txhurl]

If Kerry's about to tank, we should see signs of her Thighness ready to ride in and save the party - any day now.

[clintonh8r]

The Nader factor is meaningless if he doesn't get on the ballot in the battleground states.

[rintense]

Personally, I think he took the lead after the bombing in Spain.

[lizma]

Just think of the mental equipment of those willing to throw their vote away on Nader.

My in-laws always vote for the third party. They despise the rats for forsaking the Rule of Law and Pubs for being spineless. Although I disagree with them,, they make a point worth thinking about.

I think any one with " the mental equipment" finds themselves fed up with all of Washington on occasion. It's hardly what the Founding Fathers had in mind.

[ThreePuttinDude]

It's hardly what the Founding Fathers had in mind


The founding fathers, never wanted career politicians...