Threat Matrix- Daily Terror Thread (4):

New York Post ^ | February 24, 2004 | By NILES LATHEM

[Revel]

February 24, 2004 -- WASHINGTON - The Pentagon has dispatched the elite commando force that hunted down Saddam Hussein to Afghanistan for a new operation aimed at getting Osama bin Laden, officials said yesterday. Military sources confirmed that members of the shadowy Task Force 121, the unit that conducted the high-tech search for Saddam and his henchmen, have recently begun operating in the remote mountainous region along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border where bin Laden and key al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives are believed to be hiding. The Task Force is made up of highly trained Delta and SEAL commandos, as well as CIA paramilitary operators. It operates outside normal military channels.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Rainbows.

I thought we talked about them quiet awhile ago.

Who would have thought that a rainbow, would be the call for that cell to come to life.

Learn more every day.

[nw_arizona_granny]

Don't forget that the missing 737 or 727 plane and pilot of last year, the pilot is named Padilla also.....

But he has cute natural curly hair and a rounder face.

[TexKat]

Would you know if that's close to the BASF plant where the security guard was shot, purportedly by a "Middle Eastern" man?

Map of Lake Jackson, Tx where the airplane theft and crash took place this morning.

Nearest cities: Freeport, TX (7.7 miles)BASF location.

[Cindy]

Bookmarked.
Thanks TexKat.

[Cindy]

THE FACTS.com
http://www.thefacts.com/

PHOTO CAPTION (at this time on THEFACTS.com):

"Searching for a suspect
Chief Deputy Charles Wagner of the Brazoria County Sheriff’s Office and other members of the department wait to load up the horses used to trail the tracking dogs following the scent of the person who crashed a stolen Cessna 172 on Sunday."

[Lewis2]

I've been lurking hereabouts for quite a while now, and this seemed like as good a place as any to jump in.

I would tend to agree with Iron Eagle's perspective, i.e., the probablility that terrorist have smuggled any significant number of nuclear bombs into the US is extremely low. So far.

The current existence of the oft mentioned "Ex-Soviet suitecase nukes" is in itself highly unlikely. For those of you interested in an extremely thoughtful, well-researched study on suitcase nukes, let me refer you to these excellent open-source papers at the Monterey Intitute of Interenational Studies:

http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/020923.htm
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/week/040213.htm

As to if there are currently *any* nuclear weapons hidden within the US, I am rather less certain these days than I once was. Last year when NorthCom decided to include a small nuclear explosion in the planning for the recent United Defense 04 excercise scenario, there was a fair amount of eyeball roling. Some wags predicted that UD05 would probably include an alien landing, because the nuke idea was so improbable.

But they did it anyway, and since then the revelations about Mr. Khan's Atomic Walmmart have caused many people to completely re-assess the risk from smuggled nuclear weapons, and the UD04 scenario doesn't seem nearly as silly now as it did a year ago. Unfortunately, the idea has moved solidly from impossible to unlikely. So far. But the atomic genie is absolutely out of the bottle, and I suspect that the lengthy success of Mr. Khan's enterprise will go down as one of the greatest failures of intelligence and/or western political will in history.

So: Ex-soviet suitcase nukes? Probably nothing to worry about now, except perhaps as ready made dirty bombs. But IMHO, the existence (and possibly even presence) of 1-3 small nuclear bombs built with Pakistani or North Korean expertise and sold as "turn key" units to extremists just isn't as outlandish an idea now as it was a year ago. And believe me: 1 or 2 well-located bombs would be enough to destroy the US economy for a decade. Which is of course where our real international strength is.

I consider "dirty bombs" a much greater likelihood, and nearly as great a threat to the US/world economy. Mainly because the current conventional wisdom is that there is "no safe level" of exposure to radiation. Under that standard, even a small dirty bomb in an important area could make it unusable for many years. However in reality, there probably *is* a safe exposure level, i.e., low enough that constant exposure to it would still kill you, but it would take 200 years. But for now, no one is suggesting revisitng these zero-tolerance guidelines adopted during the No Nukes movements of the 70's and 80's. The political cost is too great, and low-tech people are simply too frightened of radiation of any kind. However if there is a Dirty Bomb set off, don't be surprised if the USG suddenly unveils new "standards" for safe exposure. They are the insurer of last resort, remember, and they (i.e., *you*) can't pay for the loss of, say, lower Manhattan and the health maintainance of a million people for 50 years. They would have no choice but to move the goal posts. And they would probably be right, bizarrely enough. Oh: and do the bad guys have the wherewithal to build and employ a dirty bomb? Take a look at this other table of data from the site mentioned above, showing all the reported instances where the Bad Guys have tried to aquire radionucleids:

http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/sjm_cht.htm

It's been a long day, and I'm beginning to ramble. Sorry about that. I guess I just don't want folks to get too worked up about a Nuke in every city. It just isn't very likely at this point. And as others have mentioned, if they had them, why haven't they used them? (Every January, I watch the State of the Union Address with my heart in my throat.) But so far, so good.... ;)

[TexKat]

Welcome aboard Lewis2. Glad you decided to stop lurking and started to participate in this madness.

Thanks for the links and your input.

[Iron Eagle]

Welcome out from the shadows! You analysis is excellent, and I don't think anyone, anywhere, would deny that there may be a device on U.S. soil. In fact, The Bush administration has such a great record of success since 9/11, but they don't dare blare the trumpet for fear it will provoke some sort of response. (Interesting political quandry -- instead they discuss number of AQ captured or killed, but they never say look, no attacks.)

No one knows for sure, but it seems that a dirty bomb is far more likely than a small tactical nuke.

let's hope we are right on this.

[Calpernia]

>>>Would you know if that's close to the BASF plant where the security guard was shot, purportedly by a "Middle Eastern" man?

Here's the Texas chemical plant story from this past January:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1064568/posts

[Calpernia]

>>>if these are legit governent sources, that Sean would divulge something that our government wanted to keep secret??? I keep going back to the "loose lips sinks ships" motto.

My only thoughts are that the info was NEEDED to be leaked. PsyOps.

>>>I can't think of other reasons that we wouldn't shout the capture from the rooftops as soon as positive ID is confirmed?

Many of us have speculated the reasons on this thread. Negotiation purposes with Iran/Pakistan/ or more. Maybe OBL's capture is a signal to launch an attack. Ricky had a great speculation...maybe it is posturing for us to plant our people within the Pakistani borders without alerting our real reasons for positioning.

>>>Are your sources the same as Sean's?

No they are not. I've said this on these threads before. I got the same information from Fort Sill the same day Sean got his from Washington.

More source has NEVER leaked info to me before. Which is why I think it was meant to be leaked.

[TexKat]

As the investigation continued Sunday night, it appeared more likely that the young man decided to steal the plane for fun, Wagner said. An aerial joyride seems like a plausible motive, judging from the beer that was found still cold in the plane’s cabin when investigators arrived on scene, Wagner said.

“It looked like they were going to have a good time,” Wagner said.

They???

[milkncookies]

BACTERIA RUN WILD, DEFYING ANTIBIOTICS... DEVELOPING...LINK

[Labyrinthos]

Welcome aboard. Very nice first post. I wish other newbies would adopt your style.

[Labyrinthos]

...judging from the beer that was found still cold in the plane’s cabin...

I forget who said it first, but when this story first hit the threads, someone did say "I bet alcohol was involved.

[Velveeta]

Well now, that answers that question! Thanks Texkat. I just got back and was going to check maps.

Coincidence?

Here's a recap of the description of the guy who shot the guard at the BASF plant:

****dark complexion, dark hair, a mustache****
and an accent believed to be Middle Eastern. Police continue looking for the man who was driving a white pickup with tinted windows and a black strip.

[Calpernia]

Bump!

[Calpernia]

>>>I question why so many groups are all set up and have no or only one or two messages in them? But many links to keep you looking at the subject, my eyes gave up, before the links did.

Three reasons I might know of.

#1 - The groups have a private chat room.

#2 - Private messaging doesn't get posted to the public board.

#3 - Groups acts like a private server. Files are posted than deleted after the necessary recipients download them.

[Velveeta]

Great post, welcome to FR.

[Calpernia]

BUMP!

[TexKat]

They must have been up all Saturday night partying judging how early it was at the time of the theft and the number of hangers that was broken into. In one of the articles it stated that a different plane had been pulled out.

Also in the plane that was crashed the ID of the owners partner was found which would not be considered unusual I guess.