[Dales]

Nine.

[scarface367]

You have a picture of Indiana above Illinois

[Dan from Michigan]

Agree with all of them. I have Arkansas and Minnesota as tossups, with Iowa as a leaner. Illinois I have as solid dem. Chicago and it's burbs just shifted too much, and George Ryan has killed the GOP badly.

[Ingtar]

At this point, Bush is not on the ballot in California, Illinois, Alabama, West Virginia, and D.C. due to the Republican Convention closing after the filing dates for these locations.

[HapaxLegamenon]

Are you crazy? Kansas is SAFE. It is the most reliable Republican state in presidentail races.

[RWR8189]

Thank you, these breakdowns are very informative.

Keep up the good work!

[Neets]

Nine.

[Kuksool]

MN is winnable for Bush, if he could encourage the growing suburbs (the Ventura Belt) to turnout for him in big numbers. Huge turnout from the Ventura Belt enabled Tim Pawlenty and Norm Coleman to win in 2002.

[Paleo Conservative]

Next installment: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.

As a Texan, I must object to your putting Texas last.

[Kuksool]

Illinois has suffered a lot of job losses, both Downstate and in the Chicagoland suburbs. Plus, the local media worships Mayor Richard Daley. I doubt Bush will carry IL.

[Kuksool]

Installment Nine.

[chimera]

I'd have to count IA as a Rat state. Even Reagan had a close run here against either Carter or Mondull, I can't recall. Something about farm subsidies and government handouts, I'd guess. The Rats have those issues locked up.

Bush has to "run the table" on the states he got the last time, and hopefully pickup up a few others to make it safe, or cover those that might go for Kerry. OH and WV look to be the close ones this time around, if things don't change. Bush will likely lose NV because of Yucca Mountain (even though he's right on his position on that, it just isn't popular there) and maybe NH because of Kerry being a New Englander, something Gore was not. But if we lose OH and WV without a pickup somewhere, we're probably done, no matter what NV and NH do.

[wylenetheconservative]

I don't think New Jersey is going to be in Bush's column. I don't think its even going to be close.

[WFTR]

There are a couple of poll results in the elections section here at Free Republic. If you haven't seen them, you might want to take a look.

Well, four and a half
Bill

[jdege]

Politics in Minnesota have changed dramatically, over the last four years.

The Democrat domination in this state always depended upon an uneasy alliance between the urban liberals and the Iron Range union members.

The solidarity between these two groups on issues fractured some years ago. For the last ten years, what loyalty has remained was mostly bought. With the Dems out of power at the Capitol, they no longer have the power to buy loyalty.

The DFL precinct organizations have been falling apart. The far-left crowd has descended into paranoid delusions, and their driving the majority of the party away.

It's possible that the Dems will pull it off, come November. But I'd put the odds against them.

[Clintonfatigued]

While your overall analysis is impressive, I think you should revise the Louisiana outlook. The African-American population is growing at twelve times greater rate than that of white voters, partly because many white people are leaving. The economy continues to be problematic there. This has shown up in recent election results. In 1988, this was Dukakis's strongest southern state (45%), and in 1996 this was Dole's worst southern state (except Arkansas). Even Al Gore made a respectable showing.

[Cacique]

L8R

[Teacher317]

237-228-12 splitting up the center... still a close one!