Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Nine

Various

[Dales]

Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this ninth installment, the random state generator presented me with Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.

---

Iowa

Electoral Votes: 7

2000 Result

Gore 48%

Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%

Punditry: Iowa was close last time, and Bush's numbers have hovered around the 50% mark. While the most recent poll (by a different company) reversed the previous result that showed Bush up, the net is that this state will continue to be a battleground, with perhaps a Slight Advantage for the Democrats at this point.

---

Arkansas

Electoral Votes: 6

2000 Result

Bush 51%

Gore 46%

Background: Arkansas votes Republican, although if there is a southerner running against a northerner it will go Democrat. Humphrey came in third here, Carter beat Ford, and Clinton won twice. Republicans won all the rest since LBJ.

Polling Data: None available.

Punditry: A five point win for Bush when the match was between a southern VP of a homestate President against a southerner (but a Texan!). If the matchup is between Bush and Kerry, I doubt it will be even that close. If Edwards is the nominee, things get more interesting. Leans for Bush.

---

Minnesota

Electoral Votes: 10

2000 Result

Gore 48%

Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%

Punditry: Due to the closeness of the 2000 election and the win by Norm Coleman, this is a chic pick to be a pickup for Bush in 2004. Still, it would take some work. The state simply has proved elusive for Republicans. Still, given the closeness last time and the currently tight polls, this merits only a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.

---

Louisiana

Electoral Votes: 9

2000 Result

Bush 53%

Gore 45%

Background: Louisiana votes for southerners in Presidential elections. George Wallace won here. Carter beat Ford. Clinton beat Dole. And Clinton beat Bush (with a big help from Perot). All others since JFK were won by Republicans.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
11/9/03	JPI Polling	Link	RV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	34%

Punditry: Bush has many more worries than Louisiana, especially if Kerry is the nominee. Strong Advantage for Bush.

---

Illinois

Electoral Votes: 21

2000 Result

Gore 55%

Bush 42%

Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat
6/9/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	36%
10/20/03	Chicago Tribune	NA	700 RV	3.8%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	49%
1/9/04	Chicago Tribune	Link	RV	3.8%	Bush	40%	Unnamed Democrat	48%

Punditry: It was not all that long ago that a candidate like Bush would be favored in Illinois. But now, getting within spitting distance would be considered a triumph. Strong Advantage for Democrats.

---

Summary Table
	Bush					Democrat
	Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
	ND (3)	CO (9)	GA (15)	NV (5)	OR (7)	NM (5)	CA (55)	NY (31)	VT (3)
	AL (9)	SC (8)	NC (15)	FL (27)	WV (5)	ME (4)	-	DE (3)	MA (12)
	MT (3)	KY (8)	MO (11)	NJ (15)	-	MI (17)	-	MD (10)	DC (3)
	WY (3)	KS (6)	VA (13)	-	-	PA (21)	-	WA (11)	RI (4)
	UT (5)	MS (6)	OH (20)	-	-	IA (7)	-	CT (7)	HI (4)
	ID (4)	SD (3)	IN (11)	-	-	MN (10)	-	IL (21)	-
	AK (3)	LA (9)	AZ (10)	-	-	-	-	-	-
	NE (5)	-	AR (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Designation Total:	35	49	101	47	12	64	55	80	26
Candidate Total:	190			123			164
Undesignated electoral votes: 61

---

Next installment: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.

Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.

Installment One
Installment Two
Installment Three
Installment Four
Installment Five
Installment Six
Installment Seven
Installment Eight

[Eccl 10:2]

Sorry. My apologies.

At least I didn't accuse you of being a Democrat.

[WFTR]

There are a couple of poll results in the elections section here at Free Republic. If you haven't seen them, you might want to take a look.

Well, four and a half
Bill

[BobFromNJ]

Bump--You are right --NJ is gone --we are trying to bring it as least closer to the real world but not yet!!

[WinOne4TheGipper]

He's saving the best for last.;-)

[GiveEmDubya]

I don't know what's going on in Nevada, but as far as New Hampshire, based on the latest elections, it is significantly more Republican here than 4 years ago. Its proximity to Massachusetts could negate that fact, but it will be up to Kerry to decide if he wants to spend money in a media market that he's going to win most of anyway.

The "battleground" in NH is probably going to be in areas around Rockingham, Hillsborough, and Merrimack Counties. Lately, the area has been good to us so I'd put NH at a slight advantage for Bush.

[FRgal4u]

IA is winnable especially on the value issues - if the dims overplay the gay marriage issue, IA will go R. Jobs is less an issue in IA than the unpopular Iraq war. Unemployment rate in IA is lower than national average and with Grassley in the ticket as well, Bush could get an extra percent or two, that's likely be enough for a pickup.

I agree OH is the Florida this year, manufacturing job losses are significant in OH. But then again, OH is another culturally conservative state, gay marriage thing could sway a percent or two.

This raise an interesting scenario, will Kerry pick Bayh as veep instead of Edwards. If Bayh is on the ticket, he will make OH interesting. I don't think Bayh is enough to flip Indiana, but a moderate senator with an attractive face and young family, Bayh has all the stuff Edwards had without the trial lawyer taint. I doubt Edwards can flip NC to Kerry or make many southern states competitive either.

I consider a Kerry/Bayh; Kerry/Breaux ticket much more threatening than a Kerry/Edwards ticket. Of course if the dims make a Bayh type of move, Bush can stun the political landscape by putting McCain/Powell/Rudy in the veep stake. A McCain pick will make Arizona safe and potentially pull in NH, and a few other marginal states in - like MN, OR. A Powell pick will truly unthinkable. A Rudy pick will have the media buzz going and who knows what else.

[pgkdan]

Thank you very much for the bump. I feel like a broken glass Republican all over again.

[Neets]

Yea, it does bring back some wild memories huh?

[jdege]

Politics in Minnesota have changed dramatically, over the last four years.

The Democrat domination in this state always depended upon an uneasy alliance between the urban liberals and the Iron Range union members.

The solidarity between these two groups on issues fractured some years ago. For the last ten years, what loyalty has remained was mostly bought. With the Dems out of power at the Capitol, they no longer have the power to buy loyalty.

The DFL precinct organizations have been falling apart. The far-left crowd has descended into paranoid delusions, and their driving the majority of the party away.

It's possible that the Dems will pull it off, come November. But I'd put the odds against them.

[Kuksool]

The RATS could win, if they could get enough elderly folks to the polls who vote Dem out of habit. The Norm Coleman/Walter Mondale showed a stark contrast between young people and old folks. The Elderly voted for Mondale, while the young people went for Coleman.

[Clintonfatigued]

While your overall analysis is impressive, I think you should revise the Louisiana outlook. The African-American population is growing at twelve times greater rate than that of white voters, partly because many white people are leaving. The economy continues to be problematic there. This has shown up in recent election results. In 1988, this was Dukakis's strongest southern state (45%), and in 1996 this was Dole's worst southern state (except Arkansas). Even Al Gore made a respectable showing.

[jack gillis]

It goes to the House of Representatives, where each STATE DELEGATION gets one vote and a candidate needs 26 states to win.

Because of split delegations, even in our two-party system, no candidate may get 26 votes. In that case, the Veep-elect becomes acting Prez until the Prez is decided. And Veep-elected is chosen by straight vote of the Senate except you need 51 Senators because the Veep can't break this tie.

[Tanniker Smith]

I have to agree with you on New Jersey. I'll have to find the installment with NJ to see what he's basing it on, but NJ is a Democrat state these days. Too many people from NYC and Philly settling in.

TS
...

[wylenetheconservative]

Louisiana is the most RAT state in the south (with AR not far behind), but my friends down there tell me that Bush is fine. The cajuns in SW Louisiana usually swing elections to the RATS, but I hear that the cajuns are with Bush. So I think Bush may win it without having to even spend money there. Kerry has other states to that are more amenible to his message, so Bush may win it by default if he stays ahead in the polls.

[jack gillis]

No, I mean evenly split delegations where it breaks down 1-1, 2-2 or 3-3. I think Iowa is 3-3, for instance.