Skip to comments.Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Nine
Posted on 02/22/2004 4:28:45 PM PST by DalesEdited on 02/22/2004 5:01:33 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
Due to popular demand, I am going to revive my poll tracking and analysis that I did during the 2000 election season. I will be starting things a bit differently this year. Instead of starting off with a comprehensive overview of the entire nation, I am going to start by looking at five states at a time. For this ninth installment, the random state generator presented me with Iowa, Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, and Illinois.
|Electoral Votes: 7|
Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.
|9/12/03||Des Moines Register||Link||803 Adults||3.5%||Bush||41%||Unnamed Democrat||41%|
|10/30/03||Research 2000||Link||LV||4%||Bush||46%||Unnamed Democrat||47%|
|1/5/04||Research 2000||Link||LV||4%||Bush||50%||Unnamed Democrat||42%|
|2/11/04||Selzer & Co.||NA||RV||3.4%||Bush||42%||Kerry||49%|
Punditry: Iowa was close last time, and Bush's numbers have hovered around the 50% mark. While the most recent poll (by a different company) reversed the previous result that showed Bush up, the net is that this state will continue to be a battleground, with perhaps a Slight Advantage for the Democrats at this point.
|Electoral Votes: 6|
Background: Arkansas votes Republican, although if there is a southerner running against a northerner it will go Democrat. Humphrey came in third here, Carter beat Ford, and Clinton won twice. Republicans won all the rest since LBJ.
Polling Data: None available.
Punditry: A five point win for Bush when the match was between a southern VP of a homestate President against a southerner (but a Texan!). If the matchup is between Bush and Kerry, I doubt it will be even that close. If Edwards is the nominee, things get more interesting. Leans for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 10|
Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.
Punditry: Due to the closeness of the 2000 election and the win by Norm Coleman, this is a chic pick to be a pickup for Bush in 2004. Still, it would take some work. The state simply has proved elusive for Republicans. Still, given the closeness last time and the currently tight polls, this merits only a Slight Advantage for the Democrats.
|Electoral Votes: 9|
Background: Louisiana votes for southerners in Presidential elections. George Wallace won here. Carter beat Ford. Clinton beat Dole. And Clinton beat Bush (with a big help from Perot). All others since JFK were won by Republicans.
|11/9/03||JPI Polling||Link||RV||4%||Bush||50%||Unnamed Democrat||34%|
Punditry: Bush has many more worries than Louisiana, especially if Kerry is the nominee. Strong Advantage for Bush.
|Electoral Votes: 21|
Background: Before Clinton broke through, Republicans had won six straight Presidential contests in Illinois. But Clinton's win against Bush was not because of Perot; he would have carried it without him in the race. And Gore flat out spanked Bush here.
|6/9/03||Chicago Tribune||NA||RV||3.8%||Bush||38%||Unnamed Democrat||36%|
|10/20/03||Chicago Tribune||NA||700 RV||3.8%||Bush||38%||Unnamed Democrat||49%|
|1/9/04||Chicago Tribune||Link||RV||3.8%||Bush||40%||Unnamed Democrat||48%|
Punditry: It was not all that long ago that a candidate like Bush would be favored in Illinois. But now, getting within spitting distance would be considered a triumph. Strong Advantage for Democrats.
|ND (3)||CO (9)||GA (15)||NV (5)||OR (7)||NM (5)||CA (55)||NY (31)||VT (3)|
|AL (9)||SC (8)||NC (15)||FL (27)||WV (5)||ME (4)||-||DE (3)||MA (12)|
|MT (3)||KY (8)||MO (11)||NJ (15)||-||MI (17)||-||MD (10)||DC (3)|
|WY (3)||KS (6)||VA (13)||-||-||PA (21)||-||WA (11)||RI (4)|
|UT (5)||MS (6)||OH (20)||-||-||IA (7)||-||CT (7)||HI (4)|
|ID (4)||SD (3)||IN (11)||-||-||MN (10)||-||IL (21)||-|
|AK (3)||LA (9)||AZ (10)||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|NE (5)||-||AR (6)||-||-||-||-||-||-|
|Undesignated electoral votes: 61|
Next installment: Tennessee, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and the great state of Texas.
Historical election data are located at Dave Leip's invaluable website.
So? They sound alike...
As a Texan, I must object to your putting Texas last.
Bush has to "run the table" on the states he got the last time, and hopefully pickup up a few others to make it safe, or cover those that might go for Kerry. OH and WV look to be the close ones this time around, if things don't change. Bush will likely lose NV because of Yucca Mountain (even though he's right on his position on that, it just isn't popular there) and maybe NH because of Kerry being a New Englander, something Gore was not. But if we lose OH and WV without a pickup somewhere, we're probably done, no matter what NV and NH do.
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