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I'd have to count IA as a Rat state. Even Reagan had a close run here against either Carter or Mondull, I can't recall. Something about farm subsidies and government handouts, I'd guess. The Rats have those issues locked up.

Bush has to "run the table" on the states he got the last time, and hopefully pickup up a few others to make it safe, or cover those that might go for Kerry. OH and WV look to be the close ones this time around, if things don't change. Bush will likely lose NV because of Yucca Mountain (even though he's right on his position on that, it just isn't popular there) and maybe NH because of Kerry being a New Englander, something Gore was not. But if we lose OH and WV without a pickup somewhere, we're probably done, no matter what NV and NH do.

I don't know what's going on in Nevada, but as far as New Hampshire, based on the latest elections, it is significantly more Republican here than 4 years ago. Its proximity to Massachusetts could negate that fact, but it will be up to Kerry to decide if he wants to spend money in a media market that he's going to win most of anyway.

The "battleground" in NH is probably going to be in areas around Rockingham, Hillsborough, and Merrimack Counties. Lately, the area has been good to us so I'd put NH at a slight advantage for Bush.

IA is winnable especially on the value issues - if the dims overplay the gay marriage issue, IA will go R. Jobs is less an issue in IA than the unpopular Iraq war. Unemployment rate in IA is lower than national average and with Grassley in the ticket as well, Bush could get an extra percent or two, that's likely be enough for a pickup.

I agree OH is the Florida this year, manufacturing job losses are significant in OH. But then again, OH is another culturally conservative state, gay marriage thing could sway a percent or two.

This raise an interesting scenario, will Kerry pick Bayh as veep instead of Edwards. If Bayh is on the ticket, he will make OH interesting. I don't think Bayh is enough to flip Indiana, but a moderate senator with an attractive face and young family, Bayh has all the stuff Edwards had without the trial lawyer taint. I doubt Edwards can flip NC to Kerry or make many southern states competitive either.

I consider a Kerry/Bayh; Kerry/Breaux ticket much more threatening than a Kerry/Edwards ticket. Of course if the dims make a Bayh type of move, Bush can stun the political landscape by putting McCain/Powell/Rudy in the veep stake. A McCain pick will make Arizona safe and potentially pull in NH, and a few other marginal states in - like MN, OR. A Powell pick will truly unthinkable. A Rudy pick will have the media buzz going and who knows what else.