Electoral College Breakdown, Installment Seven

various

[Dales]

Let me try this again. I had some screwups in the last post so I had it pulled.

[Clintonfatigued]

I don't enjoy saying this, but West Virginia voted for George W. Bush mainly because of Federal Distrcit Judge Charles Haden. He ruled that mountaintop mining, vital to the economy, violates federal environmental laws. This put the whole local mining industry at risk, and the local economy as well. Haden is a Clinton appointee, if I'm not mistaken, and the Clinton administration supported him. For Gore, it was more than a shot in the foot, it was a shot in the heart. Gore made things worse for himself here by his support for gun control, abortion, and gay marriage, but they didn't tip the scales by themselves. Haden's ruling has been overturned by a higher court and the issue is yesterday's news. Now job losses to outsoursing is the big issue, and Senator Robert Byrd (a local icon) despises Bush. It's hard for me to imagine Bush winning here in 2004.

[Dales]

As the counter to that, drive through from 79 to 19 and stop in restaurants, stores, and other local businesses. You will find photos of the troops on the walls, treated like local celebrities. Most of the time you will see a picture of the President as well. You won't find more patriotic people in the nation than you will find in West Virginia.

[onyx]

This one is perfect and you're now an expert "pinger" as well.

[Dan from Michigan]

Hawaii and ND are the easy ones.

Oregon is just a tough state to call. I have to give the dems a slight edge, but it's winnable. Gore only won 8 counties, and only in Multnomah county(Portland) did he get 53% or highter(64%). Gore only broke 50% in 4 other counties.(Lincoln, Lane, Benton, Clatsop), and the others he won with 48 or 49% were Columbia, Hood River, and Washington. Bush won two counties with 48 or 49%. Tillamook and Clackamas. He won the rest with over 50%.

Washington State is like Oregon but tougher and that's because of King County and Seattle. There were over 700,000 votes in King County, only 85,000 less than Wayne County here in Michigan. Gore got 60% in King. Gore won only 10 other counties there, and none of them with more than 53%(San Juan). The two biggest ones are Snohomish and Pierce Counties. In order for the big upset, Bush needs to do very well in the rural areas in the east and hold his own in Snohomish and Pierce.

West VA I have to give a slight edge to the dems based on jobs and past history, but that could change.

[Jewels1091]

Bush can not afford to lose one state....I'm very worried about the election. Unless Bush's campaign can make people think and not believe all Kerry's crap he has poured out and most of it LIES, then we'll be in big trouble. And every terrorist in the world is hoping Kerry wins...

[ambrose]

Hawaii was close in 1976...

In addition to being Democratic, Hawaii also has a habit of voting for incumbents...

[LdSentinal]

Very nice segments on your part.

My intitial anaylysis is to take all the electoral votes Bob Dole won in 1996 and automatically place it into Bush's count for '04.

159 -- 269 needed to win.

After rapportionment, 6 additional electoral votes went to states that will automatically go for Bush (2 for Georgia; 2 for Texas 1 for North Carolina, and 1 for Colorado.

Subract 3 electoral votes taken from heavy Republican states as Mississippi, Indiana, and Oklahoma.

162 now for Bush.

Add 8 for Kentucky, which has trended heavily to the Republicans and Bush has 170 as a base.

With the recent poll showing Bush leading Kerry by 8% among registered voters, add an additioanl 10 electraol votes to Bush and he has 180 as a electoral base -- 89 are needed to win.

I need to see polls from Lousiana and Tennessee to determine if they are safely in Bush's corner.

[LdSentinal]

With the recent poll showing Bush leading Kerry by 8% among registered voters, add an additioanl 10 electoral votes to Bush and he has 180 as a electoral base -- 89 are needed to win.

That poll was of Arizona which I was speaking about.

[raloxk]

"Bush can not afford to lose one state"

actually he can afford to lose WV or NH. If the 2000 election were re-run today Bush would win 278 EVs, not 271

[Joee]

Just want you to know, I appreciate your efforts. Very professional in all counts.

[Torie]

When are you going to make a surprise call? So far, you are playing to safe with the conventional wisdom, and of course assuming a tight election. It might be better to post plus or minus percentages from the national percentage totals. In that regard, I predict Ohio will be in the minus column for Bush, and Minnesota in the plus column. That's my out-of-the-box prediction for the day. New Mexico will be in the plus column for Bush too. New Hampshire will be minus.

[Torie]

Quiz time. What other part of the country (not a whole state actually), is known for its pro incumbent bias?

[AntiGuv]

I'm confused. North Dakota was in Installment One. In the Installment Seven version that got pulled, Montana was where North Dakota is now.

You are making my brain hurt.. ;)

Still excellent work. Keep 'em coming!

[Dales]

Gosh darn it! I'll fix. Give me a few.

[LdSentinal]

If you want to take a look, here are the latest registration numbers for about 30 states.

Link

[Dales]

When are you going to make a surprise call?

Don't confuse my measure of how things stand with where I think things will go. Right now, all I am doing is basically establishing a snapshot of things, without minimal prognostication being involved. There is plenty of time for guesswork later.

[jack gillis]

If you're thinking of anywhere except the Deep South, you've lost about 110 points of IQ since last we exchanged posts.

[jack gillis]

Don't worry about it.

Had ZERO impact on the charts anyway!!

If either of those states are anything except "Safe GOP" with three weeks to go, Bush is toast ... although MT on occasion displays a left-populist streak