Kerry, Edwards Lead Bush by Double Digits Among Likely Voters

Gallup News Service ^ | February 19, 2004 | David W. Moore

[RWR8189]

Support stimulated by especially high interest among Democrats

PRINCETON, NJ -- In a hypothetical presidential contest, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads President George W. Bush by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 55% to 43%, while North Carolina Sen. John Edwards leads Bush by 10 points, 54% to 44%. According to the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, these figures represent a significant improvement in the Democratic candidates' strength from 10 days ago, when Bush had a one-point lead over Kerry and a four-point lead over Edwards. At the end of January, Kerry enjoyed a seven-point lead and Edwards a one-point lead.

	Kerry	Bush
Likely Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	55	43
2004 Feb 6-8	48	49
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	53	46
	Edwards	Bush
Likely Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	54	44
2004 Feb 6-8	46	50
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	48

The current poll, conducted Feb. 16-17, finds a much smaller change among registered than among likely voters. Kerry's current lead among registered voters is five percentage points, 51% to 46%, up from one point 10 days ago, but identical to the lead measured at the end of last month. A CBS News poll conducted Feb.12-15 also found a five-point lead among registered voters, 48% for Kerry to 43% for Bush. An ABC News/Washington Post poll of registered voters conducted Feb. 10-11 found Kerry leading Bush by nine points, 52% to 43%. These results suggest little change in registered voters' preferences between Kerry and Bush over the past several weeks.

Similarly, Edwards and Bush are essentially tied in the current poll among registered voters, as they were in a late January poll. Ten days ago, Bush enjoyed a six-point lead over Edwards among registered voters.

	Kerry	Bush
Registered Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	51	46
2004 Feb 6-8	49	48
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	51	46
	Edwards	Bush
Registered Voters	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17	49	48
2004 Feb 6-8	45	51
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	48	48

The larger fluctuation Gallup found among likely voters probably reflects the ebb and flow of news stories about the Democratic primaries, which in turn can affect the relative number of Democrats or Republicans in the "likely voter" pool at any given point in time. During a period of intense coverage of Democratic primaries and caucuses, as occurred during the New Hampshire primary and more recently in anticipation of the Wisconsin primary, Democrats become especially interested in following the campaign -- a measure that boosts their chances of being included in the Gallup "likely voter" model.

This is an unusual situation. Republicans are disproportionately likely to be likely voters in most situations, which has historically given them an advantage on Election Day. It will be important to see if the Democrats maintain their current level of intense interest in the campaign, and thus a higher probability of voting, after the primary season is over and a nominee has been firmly determined.

Over the same period of time -- between the New Hampshire and Wisconsin primaries -- Bush's job approval rating has remained essentially stable, ranging between 49% and 52%. Thus, the changes in the horse-race figures would appear to reflect more the changing likelihood of Democrats turning out to vote than a fundamental change in the public's perceptions of Bush.

Kerry Holds Overwhelming Lead Among Democrats

The poll confirms the front-runner status of Kerry over all of his Democratic opponents, as he receives support from 65% of registered Democrats nationally (including those who lean to the Democratic Party). Edwards receives just 19% support and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean 8%.

Democratic Challenger Trial Heat
Among Registered Democrats

The current poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday, and was thus completed for the most part before results of the Wisconsin primary were known. It is possible that Edwards' unexpectedly strong second-place finish in Wisconsin may change the dynamics of the race, but he obviously has a long way to go to overcome Kerry's lead nationally. Even among Democratic voters living in the nine Super Tuesday states holding primaries on March 2, the poll shows Kerry leading with an average of 63% support, followed by Edwards (9%), Dean (7%), civil rights activist Al Sharpton (4%), and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich (1%).

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,006 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 16-17, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 568 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 general election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption.

For results based on the sample of 898 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 426 Democrats and Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

2. If Massachusetts Senator John Kerry were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Kerry, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

2A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Kerry, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

	Kerry	Bush	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	55	43	1	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	48	49	1	*	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	53	46	*	--	1
2004 Jan 9-11	43	55	1	*	1
Registered Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	51	46	2	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	51	46	1	--	2
2004 Jan 9-11	40	57	2	--	1
2003 Nov 10-12	46	52	1	--	1
2003 Sep 19-21	48	47	2	1	2
National Adults
2004 Feb 16-17	51	44	3	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	48	48	2	*	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	52	44	2	--	2
2004 Jan 9-11	40	57	2	--	1
2003 Nov 10-12	44	53	1	--	2
2003 Sep 19-21	47	48	2	1	2
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response

3. If North Carolina Senator John Edwards were the Democratic Party's candidate and George W. Bush were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for -- [ROTATED: John Edwards, the Democrat (or) George W. Bush, the Republican]?

3A. As of today, do you lean more toward -- [ROTATED: Edwards, the Democrat (or) Bush, the Republican]?

	Edwards	Bush	NEITHER (vol.)	OTHER (vol.)	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
Likely Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	54	44	1	*	1
2004 Feb 6-8	46	50	2	--	2
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	48	2	--	1
Registered Voters
2004 Feb 16-17	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	45	51	1	--	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	48	48	2	--	2
National Adults
2004 Feb 16-17	49	48	1	*	2
2004 Feb 6-8	45	50	2	--	3
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1	49	47	2	--	2
* Less than 0.5%
(vol.) Volunteered response

5. Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Democratic primary for president in the next election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2004. [ROTATED:Massachusetts Senator, John Kerry, North Carolina Senator, John Edwards, Former Vermont Governor, Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, Ohio Congressman, Dennis Kucinich]

BASED ON 426 DEMOCRATS OR DEMOCRATIC LEANERS WHO ARE REGISTERED TO VOTE

		Kerry	Ed- wards	Dean	Kuc- inich	Sharp- ton	Clark	Lieb- erman	Gep- hardt	Braun	Gra- ham	None/ other/ no opin.
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
2004 Feb 16-17		65	19	8	2	*	--	--	--	--	--	6
2004 Feb 6-8		52	13	14	1	4	10	--	--	--	--	6
2004 Jan 29-Feb 1		49	13	14	2	3	9	5	--	--	--	5
2004 Jan 9-11		9	7	26	1	3	20	9	7	4	--	14
2004 Jan 2-5		11	6	24	2	2	20	10	9	3	--	15
2003 Dec 15-16		7	6	27	2	6	12	12	7	3	--	18
2003 Dec 11-14		10	4	31	1	5	10	13	8	3	--	15
2003 Dec 5-7		7	7	25	2	3	17	10	14	5	--	10
2003 Nov 14-16		9	6	17	3	5	17	13	13	4	--	13
2003 Nov 10-12		10	7	17	3	3	14	15	12	4	--	15
2003 Oct 24-26		10	6	16	1	6	15	12	12	4	--	18
2003 Oct 10-12		11	6	13	3	6	18	13	10	5	--	15
2003 Oct 6-8 ^		13	2	16	2	6	21	13	8	4	--	15
2003 Sep 19-21		11	4	13	2	4	22	10	11	3	4	16
2003 Sep 8-10		12	5	14	2	2	10	13	16	4	5	17
2003 Aug 25-26		10	5	12	1	4	2	23	13	5	4	21
2003 Aug 4-6		12	5	15	2	4	--	18	15	5	5	19
2003 Jul 25-27		15	6	11	2	5	--	21	16	6	4	14
2003 Jun 12-18		13	6	7	1	6	--	21	17	5	7	17
2003 May 31-Jun 1		17	6	5	2	7	--	20	14	4	4	21
2003 Apr 22-23		18	8	6	3	3	--	22	16	4	5	15
	NOTE: Wesley Clark dropped out of the race on Feb. 11, Joe Lieberman dropped out of the race on Feb. 3, Dick Gephardt dropped out of the race on Jan. 20, and Carol Moseley Braun dropped out of the race on Jan. 15.
^	NOTE: Bob Graham dropped out of race on Oct. 6, his name was removed from question for Oct. 7-8 interviewing and in subsequent polls; "Graham" responses from Oct. 6 included in "other" category.
* Less than 0.5%

[T. Jefferson]

Here's a reason I don't believe in these polls

Mondale was ahead of Reagan by 2% in the polls right before election night, Reagan won 49 states. End of story.

[CyberAnt]

"Support stimulated by especially high interest among Democrats"

Rush proved today, this statement is a crock!! The supposed "interest" is being hyped by the media.

As for the polls being in double digits. Since the dems and the media are a bunch of LIARS, WHY THE HELL SHOULD I BELIEVE THEIR STUPID POLL? Any group of people who are so willing to say the President is AWOL or a deserter, and assorted and sundry other unspeakable things, I will never believe their ANTI-WAR PROTESTER candidate is ahead of the President.

[randog]

If the media had spent the last three months shouting "eat poo" instead of "democrats!" half the US population would be sportin' s**t-eatin' grins by now.

[KJacob]

do you have a source?
Someone yesterday claimed that Reagan never trailed after February.

[newzjunkey]

I'd like the Media to *ban* primary results so voters aren't tainted by the "momentum" from the nothing states like Iowa and New Hampshire. It's entirely corruptive of the democratic process of each state and purely an affectation of mass media.

Anything to keep them from being the "king makers" they always set themselves up to being.

I can't see with what America has experienced during his term how W could lose. 9/11 was designed to cripple the US economy and it did not. I think W can win points with women if more remember the oppression of the Taliban and he makes the usual noises about "the chil'ren". Kerry isn't going to improve anything. I'm pleased that Iraq is no longer under Sadam's control, WMDs or not. However, Bush *must* demand accountability from the intelligence community. He can't ignore that.

[MagnusMaximus1]

IMHO, and those of other swing voters who will decide who wins this November, Dubya needs to do the following in order to squeak out a win:

1. Dump Cheney - anyone but Cheney will raise Dubya's poll numbers in key swing voter states.
2. Flush the neo-cons (Wolfowitz, Pearle, Rumsfeld? and their snooty yuppie staffers) from the current administration. Let them take the fall for both this Iraq war and the WMD debacles.
3. The entire Bush administration must take a firm and public stance against gay marriage/civil unions and other such unholy alliances.
4. The entire Bush administration must take a firm and public stance supporting expiration of the Clinton Gun Ban (so-called "Assault Weapons Ban"), plus, show tangible support for REPEAL of numerous other gun control laws currently "on the books."
5. Repeal the entire so-called "Patriot Act", or at least eliminate certain major portions thereof. Merely dumping Ashcroft may not be enough.

Otherwise, the Bush Campaign can kiss certain states, especially Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania, goodbye.

[Wright is right!]

Unless the pollsters conduct fifty individual state polls on the race, the results are meaningless. Electoral votes count, not the pipular vote. That's pipular, as in of the pipple.

For those who don't remember, it was Mandela who refered to our citizenry as "The Amurrican Pipple."

Michael

[EllaMinnow]

From the article:

The larger fluctuation Gallup found among likely voters probably reflects the ebb and flow of news stories about the Democratic primaries, which in turn can affect the relative number of Democrats or Republicans in the "likely voter" pool at any given point in time. During a period of intense coverage of Democratic primaries and caucuses, as occurred during the New Hampshire primary and more recently in anticipation of the Wisconsin primary, Democrats become especially interested in following the campaign -- a measure that boosts their chances of being included in the Gallup "likely voter" model.

This is an unusual situation. Republicans are disproportionately likely to be likely voters in most situations, which has historically given them an advantage on Election Day. It will be important to see if the Democrats maintain their current level of intense interest in the campaign, and thus a higher probability of voting, after the primary season is over and a nominee has been firmly determined.

Over the same period of time -- between the New Hampshire and Wisconsin primaries -- Bush's job approval rating has remained essentially stable, ranging between 49% and 52%. Thus, the changes in the horse-race figures would appear to reflect more the changing likelihood of Democrats turning out to vote than a fundamental change in the public's perceptions of Bush.

[chimera]

Bush may lose Ohio this time around (and with it, the election), but the issue will be job loss, not the ones you listed. John Kerry gave a speech yesterday at a union hall not a quarter of a mile from where I'm sitting now (yes, I had to take a shower and burn my clothing last night) and he was absolutely slaughtering Bush and the Republicans on this issue. It's not like he (Kerry) will solve the problem, and in fact will likely make it worse, but still it gave him the 4x8 he needed to club Bush over the head again and again. If Bush loses any more of flyover country than he did last time, he's toast.

People on FR talk a lot about the Rats having to "run the table" to make it close this year. But they forget that Bush essentially has to do the same thing. He has to hold what he had last time and hopefully pick off a few other states to make it more comfortable. I think he'll have a hard time doing that if things continue as they are. He's already in trouble here, and I think NH and NV will also be a question. NH because it was very close last time, and Kerry is a New Englander, a regional identity that Gore didn't have last time. NV because it was close last time and Bush has lost support because of the Yucca Mountain controversy (even though he's on the right side of that issue). So there are three states alone that we'll probably have to work at to hold onto.

[rintense]

Bush sucks! The United States would be SOOOOO much better with Kerry or Edwards in charge. /sarcasm

[MagnusMaximus1]

You've brought up some excellent and relevant points regarding why Bush may lose your state this time. Since Kerry supported the Iraq War (though now a disingenuous critic thereof) and he is a real Vietnam War hero, among other things, the military veterans won't have the same problem with him as they did with Clinton, or even Algore. Therefore, the anti-war one-issue voters will go with the liberal Kerry by default.

IMHO, in those more industrial "swing states" like yours, the swing voters will either give the issue of JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, the highest prority OR it will come down to the social issues of GOD, GAYS, GUNS and ABORTION, especially given the large number of gun owning, Catholic, union members in your state and certain others!

[Dan from Michigan]

Looks like an "outlier" to me.

[Dan from Michigan]

he is a real Vietnam War hero

NO HE IS NOT!!!!!!#$#$*_^@#()

Sorry, but that just irks the hell out of me seeing that repeated over and over. He got the silver star for doing once what my dad did all the time over there. He likely got it since he was an officer.

And my dad was not a war hero(his words). He simply did his duty, and while he didn't agree with a lot of how the war was run, he didn't turn his back on this country like Kerry did.

[HostileTerritory]

Not in any Gallup poll, though.

[MagnusMaximus1]

Frankly, I don't care whether he was a real war hero or not. That doesn't do it for me nor most of the other swing voters this year.

However, as I posted above, the issues of JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, and/or "God, Guns, Gays and Abortion" WILL make the critical difference in your state of Michigan, too.

If you doubt my word, talk to a few of your fellow citizens, especially union guys in your state. Also, former Buchannan supporters will play a big role in this election, too.

[Dan from Michigan]

However, as I posted above, the issues of JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, and/or "God, Guns, Gays and Abortion" WILL make the critical difference in your state of Michigan, too.

THAT I agree with.

And I find it interesting that not one paper has printed my "Kerry and Outsourcing" letter. I live on the edges of the Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Detroit media outlets.

[wilmington2]

The actions would make it look like Bush was on the run. Instead, he should come up wiyh new individual rights which will be added to The Bill of Rights by constitutional amendment. One would be the right to not go to a public school but to receive 75% of the per pupil expenditure to use to pay for a private school. This would be an absolute right. The reasoning is that the US secondary schools have failed to teach science and math and will never be reformed because they are controlled by the dead hand of unions. The next right would be for a person to chose arbitration instead of a court in the case of any crime except murder. The point is that the system is too expensive, the point being that even if not guilty you will be broke at the end of the battle. The next right would be to defeat zero tolerance at schools by immediate consideration by an administrative judge elected by the people for a term and not for life. The next right is that a person's property cannot be forfeited until he is convicted of a crime.The next right would be that nobody's total tax burden could exceed 1/3 of his income. This includes all taxes.The next right is that no one is subject to punitive damages, only compensatory damages. The reason is that a bunch of emotional jurors should not be able to go crazy with awards.What other rights would you suggest? The focus should be on improving the rights of the individual in face of the overwhelming destructive power of today's government and imperious court system.

[oceanview]

results aside, its amazing to what level the national media will go, how polling has become the integral part of how they move to shape the election to achieve their desired outcome.

[MagnusMaximus1]

Kerry's hypocrisy on both the Iraq War and economic/jobs/outsourcing issues will slightly play in Dubya's favor. Regardless, the social issues, of God, Guns, Gays and Abortion, may not be enough to get those union guys to vote (R) - going against their leadership.

IMHO, Dubya must take a more conservative position on Guns, Gays and Abortion than now, in order to possibly squeak out a win in your state.