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Bush may lose Ohio this time around (and with it, the election), but the issue will be job loss, not the ones you listed. John Kerry gave a speech yesterday at a union hall not a quarter of a mile from where I'm sitting now (yes, I had to take a shower and burn my clothing last night) and he was absolutely slaughtering Bush and the Republicans on this issue. It's not like he (Kerry) will solve the problem, and in fact will likely make it worse, but still it gave him the 4x8 he needed to club Bush over the head again and again. If Bush loses any more of flyover country than he did last time, he's toast.

People on FR talk a lot about the Rats having to "run the table" to make it close this year. But they forget that Bush essentially has to do the same thing. He has to hold what he had last time and hopefully pick off a few other states to make it more comfortable. I think he'll have a hard time doing that if things continue as they are. He's already in trouble here, and I think NH and NV will also be a question. NH because it was very close last time, and Kerry is a New Englander, a regional identity that Gore didn't have last time. NV because it was close last time and Bush has lost support because of the Yucca Mountain controversy (even though he's on the right side of that issue). So there are three states alone that we'll probably have to work at to hold onto.

You've brought up some excellent and relevant points regarding why Bush may lose your state this time. Since Kerry supported the Iraq War (though now a disingenuous critic thereof) and he is a real Vietnam War hero, among other things, the military veterans won't have the same problem with him as they did with Clinton, or even Algore. Therefore, the anti-war one-issue voters will go with the liberal Kerry by default.

IMHO, in those more industrial "swing states" like yours, the swing voters will either give the issue of JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, the highest prority OR it will come down to the social issues of GOD, GAYS, GUNS and ABORTION, especially given the large number of gun owning, Catholic, union members in your state and certain others!