Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Poll (Kerry 52, Bush 48)

Knowledge Networks ^ | 2.18.04

[ambrose]

February 18, 2004 05:59 PM US Eastern Timezone

Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Hoover-Knowledge Networks Poll

STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 18, 2004--Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn't decided were included, Kerry won by 42-38.)

Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry's lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4).

The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state's Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47.

The survey also reveals that the public sees major differences between the two parties on key issues. By more than 2:1, Californians believe that Republicans are better than Democrats in dealing with terrorism. On healthcare, the results are reversed, with the Democrats holding a 2:1 margin. The issue that is most closely contested is the economy: here, 42 percent favor Democrats, 31 percent Republicans.

Survey respondents generally give California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger high marks for his performance in office. Seventy-four percent of the sample rated the governor's performance as good or very good. Schwarzenegger's popularity gives President Bush a potential advantage in his re-election bid; among respondents who approve of Schwarzenegger, Bush defeats Kerry 62-38.

There is a 5 percent gender gap in presidential vote choice. Men split between Bush and Kerry evenly, while Kerry wins (by 5 percent) among women. Bush wins narrowly among white voters (52-48) and Hispanics (51-49), while Kerry is the overwhelming choice of African-Americans (86-14).

The poll was designed by Stanford University communications professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks' vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results.

This is the first of two surveys prior to the California primary. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California, offers consumer and business research using the only projectable Web-based consumer panel in the research industry. The company leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics to provide insights that speak directly to clients' most important marketing issues. In addition, Knowledge Networks has built a substantial practice in government and academic research, an area notable for its rigorous methodology standards.

Information about Knowledge Network's extensive practice in government, academic, and non-profit research, is available at www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp. For more information, contact: J. Michael Dennis, VP and Managing Director, Government and Academic Research, Client Service; 650-289-2160, email: mdennis@knowledgenetworks.com.

All results, content, and information about this survey copyright 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University and Knowledge Networks, Inc.

Appendix to the News Announcement for the Stanford University Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks California Primary Election Survey February 18, 2004

Survey Results

The results are from 567 interviews conducted between February 4 and February 13 with registered voters in California. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks (http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp) in collaboration with Stanford University's Hoover Institution. This is the first of two surveys to be conducted on the California primary election. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

[eureka!]

Re#34 Thanks. California will be in play with Arnold at the helm. Hehehehe...

[ambrose]

It will be a while. The Superior Court judge is playing games and stalling for time in terms of ruling on the challenge. By the time he rules, thousands of certificates will be issued, and there will be a good deal of chaos - which was their goal to begin with.

[AmishDude]

Them's pretty decisive folks there in Cali, doncha think?

[My2Cents]

This is amazing, considering the pounding Bush has been taking in the media, to be only four points down in flippin' California!

[GiveEmDubya]

Hmmm...

As I was saying yesterday, a Bush-Arnold-Jones push in California, if properly coordinated, will put this state in play.

I also hope a good, solid grassroots effort can get working on the ground there.

[ambrose]

The only other pollster to come close to the actual spreads (in the recall) was SurveyUSA.

[GiveEmDubya]

Survey USA also pretty well called the Kentucky House race last night, so I am inclined to believe they're reliable.

Did Gallup & Zogby do their own polling for the recall? If so, how were their numbers?

[foreshadowed at waco]

Dear Chris--As always your sane take on things offers me comfort...will never forget your observations during the Wellstone Memorial Rally...hang in there.

[FRgal4u]

Holy cow - Bush at 48 in California -

If this is the case the dems better be careful. If Bush can take California, the election is over.

[Paleo Conservative]

By the time he rules, thousands of certificates will be issued, and there will be a good deal of chaos - which was their goal to begin with.

Chaos is good. It will hurt Kerry and possibly DemocRATS in general.

[Republic Rocker]

money is also an issue.....GW has a trunk full.....and if these Cali polls are this close then Kerry will br forced to spend time here and GW should get Arnie going for hin ASAP...Kerry will be walking on a thin line......

Lets Roll Kali Freepers!

[Paleo Conservative]

Lets Roll Kali Freepers!

I'm a Texas Freeper.

[KQQL]

Kerry 55% - W 43%

USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup 02/18/04

[daybreakcoming]

(CNN) -- Democratic presidential hopefuls John Edwards and John Kerry both hold leads of 10 percentage points or more in hypothetical match-ups against President Bush, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Wednesday.
Half of those polled were called “likely voters”. What the ‘ell are “likely voters”??
Among registered voters, Kerry held a narrower edge over Bush, 51 percent to 46 percent. Edwards led Bush 49 percent to 48 percent in the same survey of registered voters.
More of those surveyed considered Bush a strong leader when matched against Kerry, 65 percent to 59 percent. But more said they considered Kerry honest and trustworthy, 61 percent to 55 percent.
Can we assume this 61% were “children left behind”? geeze

[Simmy2.5]

And guess which poll is at the front for Yahoo and another of other sites? Yup, Gallup. No bias here. </sarcasm>

Many times, California has shown that it isn't a liberal state. Or at least, liberal GREEN party state (which the Dems are fast becoming). And the gay issue could put California into play. Remember, we DID pass Prop. 22 despite all the ads against it in Cali. With San Francisco continuing to be the Gay Marraige capital of the United States, that is not sitting well with moderates to conservatives which is what makes up most of this state.

[Jeff Chandler]

The point is Kerry shouldn't have to defend California at all. It should be in the bag for him.

Indeed, and California isn't even a must win for President Bush. As long as it's in play, it can act as a sink, draining off rat funds they shouldn't have to spend there. Every dollar spent in California is a dollar taken away from other states. It's as if President Bush had to defend Texas.

[Bonaparte]

A state that voted Gore by 12% just three years ago, is ready to vote Kerry by only 4% today. That's quite a shift. If the poll is accurate and the trend continues, Bush may win California next fall -- especially if Arnold's popularity holds.

[okie01]

"If Kerry is truly only 52-48 in CA (notice that this must be a forced number since there are no undecideds)."

It's an allocated total. According to the article, the actual numbers were 42/38, with 20% undecided.

[Keith]

and it's important to note that this is REGISTERED voters, not LIKELY voters...

[okie01]

"and it's important to note that this is REGISTERED voters, not LIKELY voters..."

Oooooooooh...I missed that. Thus, the news is even better!