Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Poll (Kerry 52, Bush 48)

Knowledge Networks ^ | 2.18.04

[ambrose]

February 18, 2004 05:59 PM US Eastern Timezone

Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Hoover-Knowledge Networks Poll

STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 18, 2004--Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn't decided were included, Kerry won by 42-38.)

Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry's lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4).

The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state's Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47.

The survey also reveals that the public sees major differences between the two parties on key issues. By more than 2:1, Californians believe that Republicans are better than Democrats in dealing with terrorism. On healthcare, the results are reversed, with the Democrats holding a 2:1 margin. The issue that is most closely contested is the economy: here, 42 percent favor Democrats, 31 percent Republicans.

Survey respondents generally give California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger high marks for his performance in office. Seventy-four percent of the sample rated the governor's performance as good or very good. Schwarzenegger's popularity gives President Bush a potential advantage in his re-election bid; among respondents who approve of Schwarzenegger, Bush defeats Kerry 62-38.

There is a 5 percent gender gap in presidential vote choice. Men split between Bush and Kerry evenly, while Kerry wins (by 5 percent) among women. Bush wins narrowly among white voters (52-48) and Hispanics (51-49), while Kerry is the overwhelming choice of African-Americans (86-14).

The poll was designed by Stanford University communications professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks' vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results.

This is the first of two surveys prior to the California primary. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California, offers consumer and business research using the only projectable Web-based consumer panel in the research industry. The company leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics to provide insights that speak directly to clients' most important marketing issues. In addition, Knowledge Networks has built a substantial practice in government and academic research, an area notable for its rigorous methodology standards.

Information about Knowledge Network's extensive practice in government, academic, and non-profit research, is available at www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp. For more information, contact: J. Michael Dennis, VP and Managing Director, Government and Academic Research, Client Service; 650-289-2160, email: mdennis@knowledgenetworks.com.

All results, content, and information about this survey copyright 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University and Knowledge Networks, Inc.

Appendix to the News Announcement for the Stanford University Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks California Primary Election Survey February 18, 2004

Survey Results

The results are from 567 interviews conducted between February 4 and February 13 with registered voters in California. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks (http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp) in collaboration with Stanford University's Hoover Institution. This is the first of two surveys to be conducted on the California primary election. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

Exactly.

[goldstategop]

Exactly. The Democrats are doing their best to turn off for the Democrats swing voters here - the Arnold Democrats and moderate independents who would go for a moderate Democrat. I mean they're doing radical stuff like gay marriage in an election year! And when moderates like Laura Bush are against this, they should listen to the middle of the electorate but they won't cause being liberals they're feeling their oats and are full of it. So their extremism will come back to bite them in the rear in November.

[KellyAdmirer]

It is beginning to look more and more as if the Gallup poll showing Kerry ahead nationally is the outlier. No way Kerry leads by 8-10% nationally if he isn't winning California bigger than this. This confirms Zogby and Rasmussen.

[GiveEmDubya]

As I recall, the Greens got about 5-6% in the 2002 and 2003 Governor's races (I may be thinking of the wrong races though). Still, about 5% for the Greens is not out of the question.

[section9]

Now couple this with the fact that Kerry is up on Bush by five points in PA. This is after two months of relentless pounding against Bush.

Zogby's state by state tracking has Bush solidly in control of the Red Zone, while Kerry's lead in Blue Zone states is marginal, at best.

Ignore the Gallup poll that has Kerry and Edwards beating Bush handily right now. That ain't the game. State by state is the game, as Al Gore learned to his sorrow in 2000. The only reason why Hillary isn't getting in right now is that both she and her husband have seen poll numbers fluctuate before. They also know that Bush hasn't spent dime one of his money yet.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

[ambrose]

I should also add; the "gay marriage" issue could be decisive in California. The courts so far have refused to stop the issuance of marriage licenses in San Francisco. Kerry being from Massachussets where the courts are mandating the legislature write legislation allowing same-sex marriage won't have much wiggle room. The real news here is the DemocRATS can't automatically count on California and will have to spend lots of money there.

The CA Supreme Court is moderate to conservative. They'll put a stop to the gay marriage thing.

[goldstategop]

If you take the statistical noise into account, Bush would actually be leading in California! So I think the truth is Kerry is unelectable but we wouldn't want to make things too easy for Bush so the conventional wisdom is its a horse race til November. If it were a sane world, Kerry would be lucky to get 10% on Election Day. Ain't gonna happen but its a comforting thought.

[ambrose]

It is beginning to look more and more as if the Gallup poll showing Kerry ahead nationally is the outlier. No way Kerry leads by 8-10% nationally if he isn't winning California bigger than this. This confirms Zogby and Rasmussen.

New PA poll shows Kerry up over Bush by only 5% - which was Gore's 2000 margin of victory. That simply makes no sense in light of the Gallup number. Someone is wrong.

[Mike Darancette]

If Kerry is truly only 52-48 in CA (notice that this must be a forced number since there are no undecideds) Kerry will lose big time in November.

[Momaw Nadon]

Momaw, I know you post from that site that gives Pres. Bush only a 17% chance of winning California. I thought this thread might interest you.

Thank you for the ping, WinOne4TheGipper.

Perhaps if the traders in the political futures market saw this poll, the price of futures saying that President Bush will win California would go higher.

[Who dat?]

Caleeforneeeya is traditionally much further to the democratic side.

It still is, IMO.

They had a GOP strategist on the Lee Rodgers show prior to the last election predicting a 10 point win in CA by GWB.

Heh.

Meanwhile, he’s lost a lot of support among the hold-your-nose-and-vote-GOP voters they had last time, also IMO.

End result doesn’t change though. Not in CA.

What’s the old saying? Wish in one hand, s#it in the other – see which fills up first? Something like that…

[unspun]

Oh come on! Edwards can beat Bush any day of the week, too!

heh heh heh heh

[GiveEmDubya]

Absolutely correct.

Gore won the US popular vote by less than half a percent while winning California by 12%. If Kerry were up by 12% nationwide as Gallup suggests, Kerry's lead in California should notionally be around 20-25%.

Gallup got it wrong.

[ambrose]

Knowledge Network's final recall poll had Arnold at 43, Bustamecha at 30, and McClintock at 13.

[.38sw]

They also know that Bush hasn't spent dime one of his money yet.

You mean that $150 million just waiting to be unleashed?

[goldstategop]

The Democrats are going for Kerry for one reason only - his biography. They're not nominating him cause they know his record well or cause he has compelling new ideas or is a dynamic, exciting candidate. Howard Dean had the dynamism and excitement and the Democratic establishment got himn out of the way cause he was the real thing. Kerry's momentum is all manufactured. No one really likes the guy and the Democrats went for Kerry cause Bush hatred is driving them. That's not the stuff a national party victory is made off. I mean all these polls coming out are only interesting in light of the fact that a scant two months ago no one ever heard of John F. Kerry and he was a political cadaver bound for the Museum Of Political Also-Rans. Only its Dean who wound up there. What I don't get about the Democrats is why they put their most exciting candidate out to pasture in favor of a phony plastic banana boring Washington insider.

[GiveEmDubya]

""Knowledge Network's final recall poll had Arnold at 43, Bustamecha at 30, and McClintock at 13.""

:::Spits out Pepsi:::

If I remember my recall election night correctly, those WERE the actual numbers, and if they weren't, they're pretty close. Amazing.

I guess this poll is to be trusted then.

[GiveEmDubya]

My mistake, Arnold got about 49%.

Still not bad though.

[Paleo Conservative]

The CA Supreme Court is moderate to conservative. They'll put a stop to the gay marriage thing.

So do you think they'll squash this quickly, or could this take a few months? It would be great if this were in court getting lots of media attention just before the convention or even next fall before the presidential election.

[goldstategop]

The Democrat got the lowest percentage of the vote since 1930 and carried only the Bay Area.