Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Poll (Kerry 52, Bush 48)

Knowledge Networks ^ | 2.18.04

[ambrose]

February 18, 2004 05:59 PM US Eastern Timezone

Kerry Only Democrat Leading Bush in California According to New Hoover-Knowledge Networks Poll

STANFORD, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 18, 2004--Without even setting foot in the Golden State, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry now leads President Bush, according to a Hoover Institution-Knowledge Networks survey of 567 registered California voters. The survey was administered via the web-enabled panel between February 4 and February 13 and has a sampling margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

Respondents were asked how they would vote if the presidential election were between Bush and Kerry. Of those who had a preference, 48 percent preferred Bush and 52 percent Kerry. (When people who hadn't decided were included, Kerry won by 42-38.)

Kerry is the only Democratic candidate who beats Bush one-on-one; against Edwards, Bush wins narrowly by 52 to 48. (Given the margin of error, Kerry's lead could be as high as +12 or as low as -4).

The survey indicates that Californians are already strongly divided by their party affiliation. Bush wins only 8 percent of the state's Democrats, while Kerry is the choice of the same proportion of Republicans. Among Independents, Bush has a slight advantage, by 53 to 47.

The survey also reveals that the public sees major differences between the two parties on key issues. By more than 2:1, Californians believe that Republicans are better than Democrats in dealing with terrorism. On healthcare, the results are reversed, with the Democrats holding a 2:1 margin. The issue that is most closely contested is the economy: here, 42 percent favor Democrats, 31 percent Republicans.

Survey respondents generally give California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger high marks for his performance in office. Seventy-four percent of the sample rated the governor's performance as good or very good. Schwarzenegger's popularity gives President Bush a potential advantage in his re-election bid; among respondents who approve of Schwarzenegger, Bush defeats Kerry 62-38.

There is a 5 percent gender gap in presidential vote choice. Men split between Bush and Kerry evenly, while Kerry wins (by 5 percent) among women. Bush wins narrowly among white voters (52-48) and Hispanics (51-49), while Kerry is the overwhelming choice of African-Americans (86-14).

The poll was designed by Stanford University communications professor Shanto Iyengar and Stanford political science professors David Brady and Morris Fiorina, who also are Hoover Institution fellows, to learn more about voter attitudes and preferences as the California presidential primary approaches on March 2. They worked in concert with Knowledge Networks' vice president and manager director Michael Dennis on the administration of the survey and analysis of the results.

This is the first of two surveys prior to the California primary. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

Knowledge Networks, based in Menlo Park, California, offers consumer and business research using the only projectable Web-based consumer panel in the research industry. The company leverages its expertise in brands, media, advertising, and analytics to provide insights that speak directly to clients' most important marketing issues. In addition, Knowledge Networks has built a substantial practice in government and academic research, an area notable for its rigorous methodology standards.

Information about Knowledge Network's extensive practice in government, academic, and non-profit research, is available at www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp. For more information, contact: J. Michael Dennis, VP and Managing Director, Government and Academic Research, Client Service; 650-289-2160, email: mdennis@knowledgenetworks.com.

All results, content, and information about this survey copyright 2004 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University and Knowledge Networks, Inc.

Appendix to the News Announcement for the Stanford University Hoover Institution/Knowledge Networks California Primary Election Survey February 18, 2004

Survey Results

The results are from 567 interviews conducted between February 4 and February 13 with registered voters in California. The survey was conducted by Knowledge Networks (http://www.knowledgenetworks.com/ganp) in collaboration with Stanford University's Hoover Institution. This is the first of two surveys to be conducted on the California primary election. The second survey will measure changes that occur in the views of voters in the days immediately before the election and the most important California propositions.

[ambrose]

Knowledge Networks was fairly accurate during the recall, if my memory serve me...

[noexcuses]

I'm impressed...Bush within the margin in California??

[Paleo Conservative]

Well let's reverse the spin here. Republicans haven't even come close to winning California since they last won ther in 1988. If Kerry is only up by four points during the middle of primary season, California is in play.

[#3Fan]

Break up California!

[goldstategop]

Kerry has only a 4-point lead in liberal and Democratic California? There's no real excitement about this guy, that's clear.

[mystery-ak]

With the MOE it's a dead heat...

[eureka!]

I think they were accurate, but I don't remember for sure. That W gets 51% of the Hispanic vote in this one is amazing. If that is a trend, the Rats are toast (I know, I know, it's too early)...

[GiveEmDubya]

There's ups and downs to this:

UP: Only a 4 point spread in California. If anything, that should be trouble for Kerry.
DOWN: It's February; 100% for either candidate? No undecideds, 3rd parties, anything? The Green party will get at least 5% of the vote here.

[cripplecreek]

That has to scare democrats. Caleeforneeeya is traditionally much further to the democratic side.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

This could be huge. Gore beat Bush by almost 12% in California in 2000. Bush has been taking a batter from the Democratic candidates, the GOP hasn't yet trained its sites on Kerry, and Bush is down by only 4%.

Expect Kerry's numbers to get a little bit larger, when the primary takes place.... Still.... If the Dems have to defend California against Bush, they're in trouble.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Momaw, I know you post from that site that gives Pres. Bush only a 17% chance of winning California. I thought this thread might interest you.

[goldstategop]

California IS in play. We've a Republican Governor here who's enormously popular. The truth is I expected a generic Democrat to own this state but considering Kerry's the all but acknowledged Democratic nominee, there's no real enthusiasm for him. He should be doing better then double digits. Algore led Bush by 10 percentage points throughout 2000 in California. What this is - it isn't real good news for Kerry entering into the fall campaign and there's not going to be a big Democratic turnout here in two weeks now that Dean's out of it.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

DOWN: It's February; 100% for either candidate? No undecideds, 3rd parties, anything? The Green party will get at least 5% of the vote here.

Yeah, but the Green vote will most likely be at the expense of the Democrats. (BTW, Nader got less than 4% in 2000, so I think the odds of 5% for the Greens in 2004 is iffy, at best.)

[.cnI redruM]

Cali has moved right in a big way. Gray Davis was a disaster for the Dems in ways they haven't even figured out yet.

[kabar]

WOW. That is encouraging news. Run Ralph Run.

[goldstategop]

The point is Kerry shouldn't have to defend California at all. It should be in the bag for him. But if he can't even get a comfortable lead in what should be a reliable Democratic bastion - where can he win in November? That's why this poll reveals Kerry's support is basically a mile wide and an inch deep.

[Paleo Conservative]

I should also add; the "gay marriage" issue could be decisive in California. The courts so far have refused to stop the issuance of marriage licenses in San Francisco. Kerry being from Massachussets where the courts are mandating the legislature write legislation allowing same-sex marriage won't have much wiggle room. The real news here is the DemocRATS can't automatically count on California and will have to spend lots of money there.

[Republic Rocker]

From what I see here in LA.....it was DEANS town! And now that he has imploded many here may not care as much...they were really Deaniacs! Kerry is not cool enough here. I knew many a Dim who were going to all these Dean Meet Ups and such...I just do not see them getting together now for a Kerry night out!

So being we have arnie...and he is powerful....we can really put the fear in em here...After the recall, anything is possible....

Keep up the gay marriage mayor! You are bring the traditionalist out of the woodwork!

[ALOHA RONNIE]

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'JOHN KERRY = Enemy of Vietnam Vets'

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Signed:.."ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer / Vet-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965

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