Why Beijing will not attack Taiwan

Brookes News ^ | Peter Zhang

[GOP_1900AD]

The answers, land, geopolitical position, psychological impact on distant great powers ... Got Von Clausewitz? Got Sun Tzu?

[skinkinthegrass]

In order for a region or...first over our emotional ones.thanks...interesting points.

[GOP_1900AD]

How important might it be to have a submarine base with direct access to deep water? How important might it be to occupy land within Japan's unwritten sphere of influence? I know this type of thinking is quite foreign for those of us in the Post 1945 generations. But that doesn't mean such thinking does not exist.

[GOP_1900AD]

Or, in time for IRBM attacks, followed by air drops, followed by hovercraft, followed by plain old boats full of troops docking in seized ports.

[Gefreiter]

First: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan might be considered the "million-man swim", considering the lack of a credible Chinese navy, the presence of a formidable Taiwanese one, and the US Pacific Fleet.

Second: A pick to nit. I don't believe the phrase occurs in this article, but it's really annoying when the press talks about missiles being "aimed" at Taiwan; or any other country for that matter. Some indeed are aimed, sort of, like Saddam's raggedy Scud-series unguided rockets that he pointed west and hoped landed somewhere in Israel; not terrifically effective. Modern missiles though aren't aimed in that sense; "aiming" them is a software question, not a question of which direction to point the launcher.

Another example of the press, not understanding the equipment at issue, assuming the worst and writing it up for dramatic effect. And that passes for news.

[Quix]

i HOPE you are right.

But I still say that deeply endemic, visceral, conscious and unconscious arrogance is a major flaw in leadership of both Party and Military--and in large measure . . . of the Chinese individual mentalities far too commonly. . . . an arrogance of enough intensity to be blinding in more than a few ways.

[Arkinsaw]

If you see the Chinese purchasing large amounts of snorkels and fins or they corner the market on inner tubes then their might be a problem. But until then, they are not going to invade Taiwan.

[Dr. Marten]

"In order for a region or province to successfully breakaway from its "mother" country"

Sorry Fee, you lost me after this sentence. Taiwan has not been a part of China since it was ceded to the Japanese in an 1895 treaty. After the Japanese defeat in 1945, the allies ceded control of the Taiwan island to the Kuomintang. Therefore, by all intensive purposes, the very same government that was given contorl of the island, still maintains that control today. :)

[Frohickey]

One needs to recall that though China has about 2.5 million troops, much of their equipment is still largely obsolete. Furthermore, analysts believe that not even this many troops could take Taiwan.

No thanks to Clinton. :(

[Taylor42]

What's with the Australians?

They all can't have their heads up their a$$

[XBob]

4 & 9 - "The other issue is--what happens IF Beijing decides to use a neutron or other atomic set of weapons against Taiwan. They are not exactly above that in 'morality.' "


Youall skipped over a very important point: "The problem was that the Japanese had dug themselves so far into the mountain and underground that the bombing scarcely touched them."

Think - Chyanne Mountain is tiny.

[Charles H. (The_r0nin)]

Imagine how it would have been on Iwo Jima if there had been 50,000 Japanese troops, all of them as well equipped, if not better, than the Americans and backed up with the latest in heavy ordinance, etc., and entrenched in impregnable positions?

OK, if this author doesn't know the difference between "ordinance" and "ordnance," I have a hard time taking his opinion on a military conflict seriously...

[John H K]

OK, if this author doesn't know the difference between "ordinance" and "ordnance," I have a hard time taking his opinion on a military conflict seriously...

Well, it's far better than all the pants-wetting nonsensical articles overhyping every aspect of the PRC military that are routinely posted on FR.

[John H K]

A bit of a pet peeve but "intensive purposes" actually is "for all intents and purposes."

You're correct about the status of Taiwan. People often get really confused.

CURRENTLY, the government of Tawain (Republic of China) claims to be the legitimate government of ALL of China, including the mainland.

However, some wish Taiwan to stop claiming this, but proclaim itself independent of the rest of China as a separate country.

Somewhat inscrutably from a psychological standpoint, it would bother the PRC more for Taiwan to declare itself independent than it would for Taiwan to keep claiming it's the legitimate government of all of China.

[John H K]

A dirty little secret of World War II is that large-scale airdrops generally weren't effective and entailed massive casualties, and all countries have pretty much abandoned the idea of paradroping divisional-sized units. However, "paratroops" developed a lot of elan and cachet, so we still have "paratroops" that don't actually paratroop into combat (the brigade drop in Iraq was a farcical show, not a combat drop.)

I can only imagine the hilarious (and bloody) failure of a wildly inexperienced military like mainland China attempting paradrops over a place that they likely can't achieve air superiority over, such as Taiwan.

[John H K]

The Taiwan military can withstand the barrages, but her civil population has inadequate Civil Defence measures. Even if Taiwan can discourage China from invasion, her civil population, economy and etc will take major damage

Throughout history the effect of semi-accurate convetional bombardment on civilian morale and economic production has consistently been wildly overestimated. In 1944 German military production INCREASED under massive firebomb attacks at night from the British and American attempts at pinpoint bombing by day, amounts of ordnance that the Chinese couldn't even begin to approach by simply lobbing conventional missles into Taiwan.

[searchandrecovery]

China will retake Taiwan when it perceives that america is no longer a threat. This may happen in 15-25 years when our manufacturing base has been absorbed by the communists.

The chinese plan for strategic activities farther out than the current quarter (unlike the u.s.).

[tallhappy]

People who use terms like 'she" and "her" for nations generally expound pompously and emptily. I see no exception in your post here.

There's no brinkmanship. There is sincere and open move to be recognized and not live under the shadow of China's irrational claims.

It is straightforward and honest, not games and reflects public sentiment.

How callous, jaded and puffed up so many have become.

[tallhappy]

CURRENTLY, the government of Tawain (Republic of China) claims to be the legitimate government of ALL of China, including the mainland.

Not accurate. The consistution has been amended since 1991 to modify this and recognize that mainland China is legitimately ruled by another government. There is no more take back the mainland from the communist bandits.

Yet, interestingly, to the extent that the ROC says China is part of their territory (although under a different governmental jurisdiction at this time) what ostensibly will make the communists attack is that taiwan wants to officially say they are not the legitimate government of all China and don't want to be.

It's crazy. A country says they will attack another country if that country stops saying they want to take it over.

usually that means a peace treaty. The communists want war because Taiwan says they don't want war. But if Taiwan said they will take back the mainland from the communist bandits, the communist bandits are happy.

The communist's whole policy and threat is that they will attack taiwan if Taiwan says we don't want to attack you and destroy your regime and take over your land.

[JasonC]

There is no point in keeping a nuclear deterrent secret. It doesn't deter anybody if they don't know you have it. Having nukes but not saying so is the quickest way to an actual nuclear exchange, through miscalculation.