Why Beijing will not attack Taiwan

Brookes News ^ | Peter Zhang

[Dr. Marten]

Ping!

[GeronL]

I read this at their site last night... I still think it should end with 'I hope'.

[Quix]

THIS MAKES A LOT MORE SENSE than some other noise on the topic "heard" hereon recently.

I am somewhat skeptical, however, having talked to a number of people on Taiwan involved in such matters . . . how really trained and prepared how many of their military are. The main hope there is that the Mainland troops seem to be worse in training and preparedness.

The other issue is--what happens IF Beijing decides to use a neutron or other atomic set of weapons against Taiwan. They are not exactly above that in 'morality.'

Thanks for an article that presented more than I've seen before on the topic.

[joesnuffy]

Why China Will Not Attack Taiwan
Famous last words?

[Pan_Yans Wife]

ping

[ZOOKER]

Conquest seems like a waste of effort if you destroy Taiwan's high-tech infrastructure. What have you gained?

I'm hoping, too, but I think the Chinese will blink if you make the cost high enough.

[CzarNicky]

Imagine how formidable Taiwan would be if they let all their citizens own guns.

[Dr. Marten]

"what happens IF Beijing decides to use a neutron or other atomic set of weapons against Taiwan."

I know that China has said it will take Taiwan at any cost, but I do not believe that they would use nuclear weapons to do so as that would defeat their purpose and the people on the mainland would not even support such actions.

[Mr.Clark]

China will never even bother invading Taiwan, what do they gain? They have a small chance of success, and even if they do, the infrastructure will be destroyed and they'll probably have to get through the US to do it. When dealing with the Chinese, just ask, what is profitable? The Chicom military just uses Taiwan as an excuse to puff up their own budget, they won't even have the capability to attempt a landing for a decade or so, if then.

[Dr. Marten]

Ironically the Olympics will be there in time to have the billion man swim :)

[Poohbah]

I am somewhat skeptical, however, having talked to a number of people on Taiwan involved in such matters . . . how really trained and prepared how many of their military are. The main hope there is that the Mainland troops seem to be worse in training and preparedness.

Exactly. Martial skill and ability is a relative thing.

The other issue is--what happens IF Beijing decides to use a neutron or other atomic set of weapons against Taiwan. They are not exactly above that in 'morality.'

They might.

The real question in that situation is "what happens next?"

I don't believe that Taiwan would go quietly into that good night...

...and they've worked with the Israeli and South African nuclear weapons programs.

Faced with national destruction, the Taiwanese leadership will probably decide that, as long as they're going to Hell, they might as well send some ChiComs ahead of them as sideboys.

[Fee]

In order for a region or province to successfully breakaway from its "mother" country, it must have three things. One- a military capable of resisting the central government forces sent to put down the "rebellion", two- a population committed to independence, and finally the most important, recognition by a super power (which opens the door for military and economical aid). Taiwan has the first two, but the last and most critical component is not assured. China has not demanded Taiwan to surrender or die but rather declared that if Taiwan declares independence China will attack her. Reason is simple, China figures that as her economical strength grows, Taiwan's leverage on foreign countries will decrease. The leadership of Taiwan knows that, thus she can not remain under the status quo of no war (and no peace). She has to make her move now, or China will grow too influential (thru economics more than military power) and suffocate her existance. It is a high risk gamble for Taiwan, because China has 500 launchers aimed at Taiwan. The rockets are free fall systems with mechanical fused warheads (cannot be jammed). I think China will fire simultaneously at the major infrastructures of Taiwan's packed cities. The Chinese military leaders are not Maoist human wave advocates anymore. They had a rude awakening during the war with Vietnam in 1980, and understand the lessons of the US Gulf War. I think they will resort to long range rockets. The Taiwan military can withstand the barrages, but her civil population has inadequate Civil Defence measures. Even if Taiwan can discourage China from invasion, her civil population, economy and etc will take major damage. This is the brinksmanship game being played by Taiwan with China, and let us hope Taiwan does not trigger a war at the wrong time for our interests. Great powers do not let small countries decide when to fight another war against another large power. Despite my emotional feelings against Communism, we must not forget this rule because we are caught in our own war against Islam. Being a student of the Cold War, one lesson is that sometimes we face hard choices, but the premier principle is our immediate strategic interests must come first over our emotional ones.

[Quix]

Yes, I think your assessment is apt.

But, I think first, Taiwan will have to disabuse itself that Beijing will never do anything significant militarily. Toooooo many are passive to blind to dismissive to wallowing in rank denial that there is any serious issue involved at all. Such mentalities only aid Beijing, IMHO.

[Poohbah]

But, I think first, Taiwan will have to disabuse itself that Beijing will never do anything significant militarily.

Actually, they don't.

Taiwan has their "strategic forces."

If push comes to shove, they'll use them.

China, on the other hand, has to weigh the prospect of how much face they'll lose if they try to take Taiwan...

...and fail.

[Quix]

I believe that the masses on the Mainland would not approve any more than they approved Tienanmen.

However, an alarming number of them for some time believed the Mainland's tales on Tienanmen and tried justifying the deaths up one side and down the other.

I think the particular contingencies at the time may be very critical regarding how much the masses tolerate destruction of Taiwan or not.

There used to be jokes that Mainland PLA personnel would rush to attack Taiwan and once there, change clothes and turn around and defend Taiwan. But that was when Taiwan was the rich place and Manland areas poverty ridden. The tables have turned somewhat.

[Quix]

I HOPE Taiwan's strategic forces include secret nukes.

I am skeptical that China will weigh sufficiently that they may lose. Too many yes men may congratulate each other and their superiors that nothing can defeat the great MOTHERLAND'S PLA.

[Poohbah]

I am skeptical that China will weigh sufficiently that they may lose. Too many yes men may congratulate each other and their superiors that nothing can defeat the great MOTHERLAND'S PLA.

The PLA is most likely to try to get out of actually fighting a war. They KNOW just how inept and corrupt they are--and amphibious warfare is probably the most demanding type of warfare there is.

[GOP_1900AD]

When ever I read this sort of stuff, and then imagine the day of the eventual attack, I am reminded of a lyric from a certain Tool song.... "dumbfounded dip$#*(".... ! ;)

[GOP_1900AD]

"Peace in our time" bump. Neville Chamberlain bump.