[Dr. Marten]

Ping!

[Quix]

THIS MAKES A LOT MORE SENSE than some other noise on the topic "heard" hereon recently.

I am somewhat skeptical, however, having talked to a number of people on Taiwan involved in such matters . . . how really trained and prepared how many of their military are. The main hope there is that the Mainland troops seem to be worse in training and preparedness.

The other issue is--what happens IF Beijing decides to use a neutron or other atomic set of weapons against Taiwan. They are not exactly above that in 'morality.'

Thanks for an article that presented more than I've seen before on the topic.

[joesnuffy]

Why China Will Not Attack Taiwan
Famous last words?

[Pan_Yans Wife]

ping

[ZOOKER]

Conquest seems like a waste of effort if you destroy Taiwan's high-tech infrastructure. What have you gained?

I'm hoping, too, but I think the Chinese will blink if you make the cost high enough.

[CzarNicky]

Imagine how formidable Taiwan would be if they let all their citizens own guns.

[Mr.Clark]

China will never even bother invading Taiwan, what do they gain? They have a small chance of success, and even if they do, the infrastructure will be destroyed and they'll probably have to get through the US to do it. When dealing with the Chinese, just ask, what is profitable? The Chicom military just uses Taiwan as an excuse to puff up their own budget, they won't even have the capability to attempt a landing for a decade or so, if then.

[Fee]

In order for a region or province to successfully breakaway from its "mother" country, it must have three things. One- a military capable of resisting the central government forces sent to put down the "rebellion", two- a population committed to independence, and finally the most important, recognition by a super power (which opens the door for military and economical aid). Taiwan has the first two, but the last and most critical component is not assured. China has not demanded Taiwan to surrender or die but rather declared that if Taiwan declares independence China will attack her. Reason is simple, China figures that as her economical strength grows, Taiwan's leverage on foreign countries will decrease. The leadership of Taiwan knows that, thus she can not remain under the status quo of no war (and no peace). She has to make her move now, or China will grow too influential (thru economics more than military power) and suffocate her existance. It is a high risk gamble for Taiwan, because China has 500 launchers aimed at Taiwan. The rockets are free fall systems with mechanical fused warheads (cannot be jammed). I think China will fire simultaneously at the major infrastructures of Taiwan's packed cities. The Chinese military leaders are not Maoist human wave advocates anymore. They had a rude awakening during the war with Vietnam in 1980, and understand the lessons of the US Gulf War. I think they will resort to long range rockets. The Taiwan military can withstand the barrages, but her civil population has inadequate Civil Defence measures. Even if Taiwan can discourage China from invasion, her civil population, economy and etc will take major damage. This is the brinksmanship game being played by Taiwan with China, and let us hope Taiwan does not trigger a war at the wrong time for our interests. Great powers do not let small countries decide when to fight another war against another large power. Despite my emotional feelings against Communism, we must not forget this rule because we are caught in our own war against Islam. Being a student of the Cold War, one lesson is that sometimes we face hard choices, but the premier principle is our immediate strategic interests must come first over our emotional ones.

[Gefreiter]

First: A Chinese invasion of Taiwan might be considered the "million-man swim", considering the lack of a credible Chinese navy, the presence of a formidable Taiwanese one, and the US Pacific Fleet.

Second: A pick to nit. I don't believe the phrase occurs in this article, but it's really annoying when the press talks about missiles being "aimed" at Taiwan; or any other country for that matter. Some indeed are aimed, sort of, like Saddam's raggedy Scud-series unguided rockets that he pointed west and hoped landed somewhere in Israel; not terrifically effective. Modern missiles though aren't aimed in that sense; "aiming" them is a software question, not a question of which direction to point the launcher.

Another example of the press, not understanding the equipment at issue, assuming the worst and writing it up for dramatic effect. And that passes for news.

[Arkinsaw]

If you see the Chinese purchasing large amounts of snorkels and fins or they corner the market on inner tubes then their might be a problem. But until then, they are not going to invade Taiwan.

[Frohickey]

One needs to recall that though China has about 2.5 million troops, much of their equipment is still largely obsolete. Furthermore, analysts believe that not even this many troops could take Taiwan.

No thanks to Clinton. :(

[Charles H. (The_r0nin)]

Imagine how it would have been on Iwo Jima if there had been 50,000 Japanese troops, all of them as well equipped, if not better, than the Americans and backed up with the latest in heavy ordinance, etc., and entrenched in impregnable positions?

OK, if this author doesn't know the difference between "ordinance" and "ordnance," I have a hard time taking his opinion on a military conflict seriously...

[searchandrecovery]

China will retake Taiwan when it perceives that america is no longer a threat. This may happen in 15-25 years when our manufacturing base has been absorbed by the communists.

The chinese plan for strategic activities farther out than the current quarter (unlike the u.s.).

[Brian Allen]

<< .... what's the problem with the Australian Labour Party? Doesnt it realise that [Peking's thuggees] have only contempt for those who kowtow to them? >>

Self-loathing, psychopathologically-hesperophobic, envy-motivated and rage-engined and hatred-driven "Labour" potty members -- and "DemocRATS" -- love it when they're treated to the Peking predators' contempt.

Except for their [Girly] boys nights out in Kings Cross, Saint Kilda -- and Georgetown's [The mama-san-kkkli'ton place, eg] -- leather, chains, whips and bondage salons, that's the only time the bastards feel noticed.

[chilepepper]

I think that China could at some point in the future take Taiwan by force, maybe twenty years from now.

On the other hand, optimist me thinks China would be so different in 20 years they would not want to take Taiwan by force.

If China becomes democratic (if a large enough middle class develops it will probably happen!) then Taiwan may ask to rejoin China on their own...

I think what the Maoist fossils in Beijing are hoping for is a hyper jimmuh carter type president who gives up Taiwan to the China like Chamberlain and the weak willed Europeans gave up the Sudetenland to Germany in 1938...

[Cronos]

1000,000 heavily armed troops in heavily fortified positions.

Big deal. in iwo Jima 20K Japanese troops killed 25K American troops. If the 1 million Taiwanese kill say 2 million Chinese soldiers, that's NOTHING for china, it's got lots of cannon fodder. It can just push thousands or millions of militia members on to the island. It'll take heavy losses but big deal, the Russians won WWII by throwing unarmed men at the Germans, knowing that the sheer wieght of numbers would destroy the enemy.

[Cronos]

Plus China has so many spare young men thanks to it's skewed male-female ratio (at least 20 million at the last count) that they may deem it good for their society to get rid of the excess.

[Dr. Marten]

The most valuable sentence in this article is "an atrack on Taiwan would be a political suicide" for the PRC.

Any person that has a good understing of the PRC realizes this. The degree of the people who believe that the PRC will attak Taiwan depends on their degree of understang of the PRC. Chen Shui-bian, Hu Jintao and Bush are playing a game of cat and mouse. They are simply trying to push their political agendas rater than trying to touch the hot potato itself.

At the same time though, I am not naive enough to say that Beijing would NEVER attack Taiwan under any circumstances.

[Destructor]

"The PLA’s troubles would really start once it reached Taiwan. Facing it would be a highly trained patriotic army of 400,000 troops equipped with the latest gear, backed by cutting-edge technology and supported by a colossal reserve army of about 800,000 men. The PLA would be running up against something like 1000,000 heavily armed troops in heavily fortified positions."

If America got thrown into that equation, then you would get an ass kickin' for the Chinese.

[ZULU]

Beijing may be unwilling to face the economic fallout that would occur if they attacked Taiwan. They are raking in millions and millions from the U.S. which is turning into an economc serf of the Red Devil. They could lose this over a small island.

Profit may trumph pride in the Red Chinese mind - for now.