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Bush Gains, Horse Race a Dead Heat (Kerry down by 7 points since last week - Gallup)
GALLUP ^ | 02-10-04 | David W. Moore

Posted on 02/10/2004 7:35:54 AM PST by veronica

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey finds a hypothetical presidential contest between President George W. Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry a dead heat. Bush receives 49% support among likely voters and Kerry 48%. Last week, Kerry led Bush by 7 points, 53% to 46%, but a month ago -- before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary -- Bush led Kerry by 12 points, 55% to 43%.

Bush also does slightly better this week than last against the other three major Democratic candidates.

While Bush trailed North Carolina Sen. John Edwards by one point last week, the president leads by four points now. Bush leads retired Gen. Wesley Clark by five points now, compared with three points last week. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean trails Bush by 10 points in the current poll, compared with 7 points last week. Changes since last week in the relative electoral strength of Bush vs. each of the candidates, Edwards, Clark, and Dean, are all within the poll's margin of error. Still, Bush's improvement against each of the candidates is consistent with the significant improvement in Bush's standing against Kerry.

The poll results show that the political landscape has changed dramatically since the beginning of January, when Bush enjoyed double-digit leads over the Democratic candidates. Still, it is not as positive for Democrats as it was last week, when Kerry led Bush by seven points. The change from last week could be related to a decline in the positive publicity Kerry received in the wake of his dramatic victories in Iowa and New Hampshire. Whether the political landscape continues to move back in Bush's favor or stabilizes at a more competitive level remains to be seen.

Bush Approval Up to 52%

Bush's job approval is now at 52%, compared with 49% a week ago, and 59% a month ago.

GRAPHS, MORE, HERE


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; gallup; gwb2004; polls
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To: chiefqc
Yea, I think his middle name was Amana. ;-)
41 posted on 02/10/2004 8:29:33 AM PST by Quilla
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To: Quilla
Sheesh...clinton, clinton, clinton people.

John Kerry makes me want to vomit. He is so full of sanctimony, it's practically dripping from his mouth. I, I, I, I...I bet he could even best clinton in the use of "I" category.

FWIW, I watched the MTP interview last night and I thought W did fine. Peggy Noonan is all wet. She's so caught up in the beltway think and talk that she has totally lost any connection with real people.

42 posted on 02/10/2004 8:30:46 AM PST by Wphile (Keep the UN out of Iraq)
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To: FlipWilson; veronica
The President should continue his rope a dope strategy and then lower the boom in the tenth round.

How many rounds in your fight? If it is a Heavyweight Championship, and I think it is, that's 15.

I think you meant 10 rounds, so if you did, I say Bush pound Kerry with hard jabs to the ribs from the beginning of the fight, and start pounding him hard around the seventh round! Don't wait 'til the tenth. It might be too late.

43 posted on 02/10/2004 8:33:09 AM PST by thesummerwind (Like painted kites, those days and nights, they went flyin' by)
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To: TheBigB
Perhaps we may discover that this was, indeed, the high point of the Kerry campaign for the Presidency. Unless and until Kerry comes up with a strategy with more meat to it than "Bush is bad", with no substantiating arguments in support of that assertion, he is doomed.

Perhaps Kerry might be able to use Dubya's membership in some secret society at Yale as a wedge issue against him, trying to picture a dark conspiracy to control the nation through shadowy manipulations. Oops, seems like Kerry himself was a member of exactly this same secret society....
44 posted on 02/10/2004 8:35:23 AM PST by alloysteel
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To: joesnuffy
"The doctors admitted they made a terrible mistake.. Kerry came in and said he wanted Bo-Tox injected into his face

They thought Kerry said Butt-tocks

"you gotta admit we did do a good job of duplicating a buttocks" the docs said "not our fault the guy doesnt speak clearly"

there you have it..."

Its because he looks like the north end of a south bound camel

45 posted on 02/10/2004 8:35:30 AM PST by spokeshave (She said one of the men yelled after the retreating burglar: "And that's just our womenfolk.")
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To: thesummerwind
Ah, boxing, my favorite sport. FWIW, championship fights are now only 12 rounds.
46 posted on 02/10/2004 8:37:07 AM PST by Quilla
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To: Conservative Coulter Fan
Keep posting this until November!!
47 posted on 02/10/2004 8:39:04 AM PST by international american (Support our troops..............................................revoke Hillary's visa!!)
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To: rintense
Or can they do a botox reversal?

Maybe the cheap botox really doesn't last as long as the expensive stuff.

48 posted on 02/10/2004 8:39:33 AM PST by NeoCaveman (New and improved is typically neither!)
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To: Conservative Coulter Fan
Also the Ortega photo if you have it:)
49 posted on 02/10/2004 8:40:39 AM PST by international american (Support our troops..............................................revoke Hillary's visa!!)
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To: Quilla
Ah, boxing, my favorite sport. FWIW, championship fights are now only 12 rounds.

Really? I've been away too long. When did they change a Heavyweight Championship fight from 15 down to 12 rounds?

50 posted on 02/10/2004 8:41:03 AM PST by thesummerwind (Like painted kites, those days and nights, they went flyin' by)
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To: joesnuffy
"you gotta admit we did do a good job of duplicating a buttocks" the docs said "not our fault the guy doesnt speak clearly"

"My gosh, did you see the size of them jaws?"

(From an old joke about a guy with diarrhea sticking his butt out a car window and letting fly, hitting a pair of old hobos alongside the road)

51 posted on 02/10/2004 8:41:16 AM PST by Ole Okie
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To: cweese
Actually, these polls are essential -- for getting Kerry the nomination. His "electability" is the only issue in the minds of Democratic primary voters. If he is shown losing badly to Bush, Dems will go elsewhere.

It is amazing to me how this primary fight has been solely driven by poll results. If Dean polled higher against Bush, he'd have all the delegates by now.

52 posted on 02/10/2004 8:42:41 AM PST by AmishDude
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To: veronica
Gallup probably heard the pundits say that it was better for the challenger (DemocRAT) to have the incumbent (Republican) lead in January-February.
53 posted on 02/10/2004 8:43:17 AM PST by OrioleFan (Republicans believe every day is July 4th, DemocRATs believe every day is April 15th. - Reagan)
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To: thesummerwind
I believe the change was considered after Boom Boom Mancini knocked out (and killed) his opponent in the 14 round in 1982. The rule change was finally implemented in 1986 or 1987.
54 posted on 02/10/2004 8:47:00 AM PST by Quilla
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To: veronica
And all I was hearing in the news media all week was that Bush's dip in poll numbers and Kerry beating Bush was a 'real' shift in the political landscape. Nevermind the fact that the democrat primaries had a monopoly on news coverage since mid-January. The day after Bush gives a one hour interview and Kerry is back to being the ketchup kid. It's like the dems took months to build a house of cards and when Bush opened the door to let fresh air in, it blew down.
55 posted on 02/10/2004 8:51:40 AM PST by rudypoot
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To: veronica
Kerry (why the long face?) is getting a bump from the blitz of completely free media publicity. The polls are skewed to the Dems right now, just as they'll be skewed to the Republicans after their convention, and skewed back towards the dems after the Dim convention.

Wait 'til October.

56 posted on 02/10/2004 8:52:05 AM PST by wbill
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To: jmaroneps37
I think that, in some sense, this is an accurate snapshot. But there are ways to manufacture poll results and you have caught one: push undecideds to decide.

It is well-known that undecideds break 2-1 against the incumbent and it is clear that Gallup here wanted to favor Kerry. A charitable motivation is that they want to gin up a race where there is none. 44% Bush, 38% Kerry and 18% undecided (for example) just does not make interesting poll results.

57 posted on 02/10/2004 8:52:42 AM PST by AmishDude
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To: Conservative Coulter Fan
I like it. Would make a great pol ad.
58 posted on 02/10/2004 8:55:57 AM PST by Lee'sGhost (Crom!)
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To: Quilla
Claudia Kennedy.....isn't she the one who got mixed up in the sexual harrassment suit? As I remember she was the harassee, not the harasser.

I'll do a little checking......

59 posted on 02/10/2004 8:55:59 AM PST by wbill
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To: Quilla
Yup, thought that her name sounded familiar. From Fred on Everything.....good pundit to read. http://www.fredoneverything.net/Claudia.shtml

The other day I picked up a newspaper and found, page one, above the fold, that a three-star generalette in the Army, name of Claudia Kennedy, has her skivvies in a knot. It's because an unnamed he-general groped her years ago. Yep, he did. She says.

...Next day, so help me, another page-one piece: They had discovered the identity of the groper. Yes, there he was. Guy named Larry Smith. This revelation was treated as a great astonishment, as if the press had found Clinton in bed with his wife. The obvious question--"Who cares?"--eluded capture.

Now, why do you think Kennedy (some now call her Attila the Hen) is doing this? She's likely to destroy the guy's career, heterosexuality being in disrepute in the military, and she knows it. Groped? At her age you'd think she'd be grateful. Do we have overkill here? Revenge against the patriarchy? Generalized resentment against the unsatisfactory nature of life?

Who knows?

What vile act did Smith perpetrate? Did it involve a cattle-prod? Farm animals? Dunno. The papers did report a definition of harassment once given by Claudia the Combat-Ready: "His hand lingers on your back. He touches you on your upper arm and you can't tell if he's a touchy-feely person. All you know is that he gives you the creeps."

The horror.

Me, I'm trying to figure out the whole concept of sensitivity in generals. Generals are supposed to be warriors. I read that in a book somewhere. Here we have one coming unglued, positively delaminating, over something that middle-school girls handle every day.

I'm trying to picture a generalette at war. It's not easy. Historically women have not been warriors, but booty. (Why do you think all those guys with the swords and shields wanted to break into the city? Not to steal the crockery.) But I'm trying to be modern. It's not going well.

Let us say that Pyong Yang decides to acquire Seoul. Massed artillery cuts loose in January. Wind howls along those bleak Korean valleys with paddies frozen to steel. Bullets whine, wounded scream, arms and legs fly through the air like migrating birds. Remorseless North Korean infantry run around with those pointy things on their rifles.

And here comes General Kennedy charging across the landscape, yelling, "Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaak! Don't touch me!"

60 posted on 02/10/2004 9:07:18 AM PST by wbill
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