Kerry, Bush in statistical dead heat among Minnesota voters

The Red-Star Tribute (Star Tribune) ^ | 1/30/04 | Associated Press

[Solson]

Democratic Sen. John Kerry and President Bush are in a statistical dead heat in Minnesota, according to a new statewide poll.

Forty-three percent of Minnesota voters favored Kerry compared to 41 percent for Bush. Sixteen percent were undecided, according to the poll commissioned by the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio.

[Solson]

Interesting poll. A random sample of 628, after Kerry posts big wins and big media in Iowa and New Hampshire, and he only polls to a dead heat with Bush.

That doesn't bode well for Kerry moving forward, IMO.

[Alberta's Child]

There are any number of states that will be described as "toss-ups" in November, but Minnesota is one that I would describe as a "bellweather" state from the GOP perspective -- if Bush wins Minnesota, there's no way he loses this election.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

This is exactly why the stock market is plummeting.

All it takes is the slightest hint, no matter how unlikely, that a DEMO(N)cRAT might become the next President.

[republicanwizard]

Well, this isn't good for Bush in the sense that he is losing Minnesota by three points. That substantiates national polling data showing Kerry with a slight advantage, in much the same way Gore had a slight advantage in the end.

Bush really has to start getting out there and hitting the stump. He has to start talking about issues which matter. And he has to maker a stronger, intellectual case for war other than merely restating "Saddam was an approaching danger."

I love George W. Bush and will do everything within my power to re-elect him. That includes making sure that every member of Wiz's family has voted for the President. However, he needs to help me and the rest of us.

And cut the damn federal spending!

[republicanwizard]

True, but for him to get a social security reform bill through, I'd like to see Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregona, Washington, and Maine all flip to his column.

[JohnnyZ]

Just registered voters makes it a little weird, but probably a positive poll from GWB's point of view. I feel pretty good going into an election against Senator Botox.

[The G Man]

Ah, it's just a natural bounce that Kerry got off of Iowa and NH.

[finnman69]

Looks good. I would have expected kerry to have a big elad there right now.

[Republican Red]

An excerpt from an email I got from Bush-Cheney '04 after New Hampshire primary:

"Finally, per my memos from last April and November, expect us to be behind at some point in the coming weeks because of the closely divided nature of the country. This is something we have long expected, and when the nominee is nearly secure for the Democrats, they will (as Kerry has already) get a tremendous amount of positive press coverage nationally."

[TYVets]

" ,according to the poll commissioned by the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio."

Public Radio ? An Honest poll ?

I can't help it, the words public radio or public tv and my antenni are on point!

[Alberta's Child]

Basically, this goes to the heart of the problem with a democratic form of government -- candidates essentially bribe voters in the hopes of getting elected. This was exactly what that bloated Farm Bill was all about -- securing votes for Bush in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. If he wins those states, there's no way he loses.

[GiveEmDubya]

Bush was very close to Gore in the last election up in Minnesota, so even about a 2% gain here would give him the state.

I agree, if Bush carries Minnesota, he probably will win.

[69ConvertibleFirebird]

Yep, and Dean was up by HUGE margins in Iowa...

It's so nice to be flooded by "news" of polling data, which, by the way, is normally off by 30% or more.

[smith288]

Minnesota a dead heat tells me that all blue states are also going to be potential toss ups. Some will go Botox but if Bush can pull Minn, Penn, maybe even California then we are golden.

[Alberta's Child]

Bush really has to start getting out there and hitting the stump. He has to start talking about issues which matter. And he has to maker a stronger, intellectual case for war other than merely restating "Saddam was an approaching danger."

The Bush team is actually being very smart about this -- there's no need to start "hitting the stump" until a clear front-runner is identified on the Democratic side.

What you have to remember is that Bush is collecting a ton of cash for a primary campaign even though he is running unopposed for the GOP nomination. There is a reason for this. Because the GOP convention is a month after the Democratic convention, there is a month-long period of time in which the Democratic candidate will be spending his "general election" campaign funds while Bush will be tapping his "primary election" funds. By the time the GOP convention ends in early September, the Democratic candidate will be nearly broke before the GOP has spent a single dime of its "general election" funds.

[beckysueb]

Bush is just waiting to see who his opponent is going to be. Then you'll see his campaign.

[mewzilla]

The telephone poll of 625 random Minnesota voters was taken Jan. 26-28, shortly after Kerry's victories in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

It's a cheesy poll. Small sample, and notice they don't say if the voters were even registered or likely voters. This poll is worthless.

[Kaisersrsic]

In 2000, the vote in Minnesota was not really close -- Gore 47.91%, Nader 5.20%, and Bush 45.50%. I would say Bush is ahead of the game.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Only "three points" ahead after four months of non-stop coverage of the Hawkeye cauci, in overwhelmingly liberal Minnesota where the Strib has yet to retract its slanderous lie about Bush knowing about 9-11 beforehand ?
W's doing fine.

[babaloo]

When you consider 95% of the news stories re:politics now are anti-Bush, I think it is incredible that he is still polling so strong vs. Kerry in the Blue states. With Dean making Kerry go totally out on a limb with his Bush bashing it will be great to see the ads run by Bush when he decides to start spending his dough.