Kerry Maintains Double-Digit Lead in New Hampshire - Leads Dean by 12 points (Gallup January 24)

Gallup News Service ^ | January 24, 2004 | Jeffrey M. Jones

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POLL ANALYSES

January 24, 2004

Kerry Maintains Double-Digit Lead in New Hampshire

Leads Dean by 12 points

by Jeffrey M. Jones

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup New Hampshire tracking poll results show Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry continuing to have a healthy lead over the rest of the field. According to the poll, which includes interviews conducted Wednesday night through Friday night, 35% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would vote for Kerry if the primary election were held today. Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean is second with 23%. The gap between Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark has widened in the latest poll, from five points to nine points, with Clark now at 14%. North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (11%) and Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (10%) are vying with Clark for third place.

Likely New Hampshire Voters:
If the Primary Were Held Today,
for Whom Would You Vote?

In the initial phase of this tracking poll, conducted before the Iowa caucuses, Dean led Kerry by 32% to 25%. Momentum quickly shifted to Kerry following his surprise win in Iowa, and Kerry has led Dean by at least 10 points in each individual night of interviewing after Iowa. Support for Dean has now appeared to stabilize after his immediate post-Iowa drop, suggesting the effects of the negative publicity he received following his third-place finish in Iowa and his often-criticized address to his supporters there may have run their course.

At the same time, support for Clark has been gradually diminishing. His 14% share of support among likely voters is his lowest so far in the New Hampshire tracking poll, and represents an erosion of one-third of his support compared with his 21% score in the initial tracking poll. Clark received some criticism for his performance in Thursday's debate. Aside from the debate, some have wondered what effect Kerry's performance in Iowa may have had on Clark's candidacy, since many previously considered Clark to be the likely alternative to presumptive front-runner Dean -- a position Kerry may now have seized. Clark's higher standing in the initial tracking poll may also stem from his decision not to contest Iowa, thus allowing him to focus almost all of his time on New Hampshire, while the other candidates (aside from Lieberman) were campaigning in Iowa.

Edwards' strong showing in Iowa apparently did not do much to boost his immediate fortunes in New Hampshire. The North Carolina senator's support in the Granite State has risen to only the low double digits.

This latest poll marks the first time Lieberman has reached double digits.

With just three days left until ballots are cast in the primary, 63% of likely primary voters say they are certain to support their current candidate of choice, while slightly more than one in three, 36%, leave open the possibility of changing their minds.

Among the group of likely voters who indicate they have made up their minds, 40% say they will support Kerry, 26% Dean, 11% Clark, 11% Edwards, and 10% Lieberman.

Survey Methods

New Hampshire tracking results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 280 New Hampshire residents per night who say they plan to vote in the Democratic Primary on Jan. 27. Results are reported in three-day rolling averages.

The most recent results are based on interviews conducted Jan. 21-23, 2004 with 641 New Hampshire residents deemed most likely to vote in the Democratic primary. For this sample, the maximum margin of error attributable to sampling is ±4 percentage points.

The "likely voter" model assumes a turnout rate of 60% of those who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary, approximately 25% of New Hampshire adults. The likely voter results are weighted to match this assumption (weighted sample size is 516).

All results reported here are based on likely voters.

		Number of Interviews
		Plan to vote in Democratic primary	Likely voters	Margin of error, likely voter sample
2004 Jan 21-23		853	641	±4
2004 Jan 20-22		848	641	±4
2004 Jan 19-21		852	646	±4
2004 Jan 18-20		849	644	±4
2004 Jan 17-19 ^		854	657	±4
^	NOTE: All interviews conducted on Jan.19 were completed before the results of the Iowa caucuses were reported.

2. Suppose the Democratic primary for president were being held today. If you had to choose among the following candidates, which candidate would you vote for? [ROTATED: John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich, or Wesley Clark]

2A. As of today, to which Democratic candidate do you lean most?

		Kerry	Dean	Clark	Ed- wards	Lieb- erman	Kuc- inich	Sharp- ton	None/ other/ no opinion
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
(LV) 2004 Jan 21-23		35	23	14	11	10	3	*	4
(LV) 2004 Jan 20-22		34	22	17	12	8	3	*	4
(LV) 2004 Jan 19-21 ^		30	25	18	11	8	4	*	4
(LV) 2004 Jan 18-20 ^		28	30	19	9	8	2	*	4
(LV) 2004 Jan 17-19 ^		25	32	21	7	7	2	1	5
^	Dick Gephardt dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination on Jan. 20 and his name was removed from this question beginning with that date's interviewing. For data collected on Jan. 17, 18, and 19, Gephardt voters' second choice is substituted. Gephardt received 4% of the vote in the Jan. 17-19 poll.
(LV) Likely voters
* Less than 0.5%

3. Are you certain to vote for -- [INSERT RESPONSE FROM Q.2] -- in the primary election, or do you think you might change your mind?

	Certain to vote for	Might change mind	No opinion
	%	%	%
(LV) 2004 Jan 21-23	63	36	1
(LV) 2004 Jan 20-22	62	37	1
(LV) 2004 Jan 19-21	63	36	1
(LV) 2004 Jan 18-20	64	35	1
(LV) 2004 Jan 17-19	62	37	1
(LV) Likely voters

[zencat]

Man, do I ever have poll fatigue.

[MEG33]

Ditto!

[Viet Vet in Augusta GA]

Best thing that could happen for Republicans/Libertairians/conservatives is that Kerry Dean Clark and Edwards go 25-25-25-25 from here on out. The closer, the better, as they will spend all their money and wear each other down fighting amongst themselves. So pray for a close race everywhere, the closer the better.

[Blood of Tyrants]

And better yet is if Dean drops out while he still has a goodly sum of money and goes Green.

[wylenetheconservative]

I don't think he'll go Green. I think all New Hampshire Republicans should be crossing over and VOTING for Dean. Kerry and Edwards are scary in a general election. So is Clark to some degree. Dean is a sure win for us. CROSS OVER AND VOTE FOR DEAN TUESDAY.

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

FReepmail me if you want to be on or off the list.

[George W. Bush]

Dean seems to have stopped the bleeding. He may make some steady gains to 25% or more.

I'm not surprised. NH doesn't favor runaway elections. The voters are just too, well, too ornery or something...

It appears that Dean's slowly rising numbers are at the expense of the other candidates, mostly Clark. Kerry is holding his numbers currently.

Other independent polls show Dean's supporters are 68% committed to him, by far the highest. Very high for NH. FNC reports that his rally attendance is up since his three big media appearances (debate, Letterman, Diane Sawyer softball interview).

I'd bet Clark is wishing he'd gone to Iowa. And that Edwards' campaign is wishing they could have skipped New Hampshire but their strong Iowa showing almost compelled them to go hard in NH. Edwards is reported to be taking time away from NH to lay more groundwork for other primaries and that doesn't go over well in NH.

NH, as usual, will give us a few surprises.

Since Iowa, Kerry reports raising over $800,000. Dean reports $750,000. A strong second here by Dean will keep him going for a long time. With the estimated $15 million he has on hand and a lot of other ads in upcoming primary states already prepaid, Dean can stay in about as long as he wants.

A bloody Dim primary to suck all the money out of their activist base is just what I like to see.

[mvpel]

There's still hope for Bush - saw a volunteer out putting up a Dean campaign sign along highway 101 on our way home from a party this evening.

[wylenetheconservative]

CROSS OVER AND VOTE FOR DEAN!

[deport]

CROSS OVER AND VOTE FOR DEAN!

---

cross over from what?

[ChadGore]

[lucidloony]

Republicans in New Hampshire a have great opportunity too screw the dems up royally. CROSS OVER

[mvpel]

I registered to vote as "undeclared" back in November when we arrived in NH, just for the very purpose of voting in the Dem primary.

Count one Dean vote right here.

[lucidloony]

From what I have heard the Republicans can vote in the DemoRAT primary in New Hampshire.

[Born in a Rage]

I'm an Independent in NH so I can vote in the primary. I'm not going to vote, however for someone because they 'may' lose to Bush. I'm going to vote for the most conservative, level-headed one of them all and that's Lieberman. Dean is a close second. I met them both and Lieberman seems the most sincere, jmo.

I'm really very extremely tired of Bush and his spending, spending, spending to tell you the truth.

Clark is scary, something weird is up with him. He's a liar too....

[deport]

Don't think so..... It's a modified Primary which means as I understand it only the Registered party members or the undeclareds can vote in the respective Party's Primary. The undeclareds [independents] must declare to that party when they vote.... or that's my understanding.... In other words registered Dems/Reps must vote in their own party primary but the Ind. can declare at the voting booth on election day. I'm sure someone will correct if I'm in error.

[mvpel]

Nope, that's pretty much how it works.

[Koblenz]

Please cross over and vote Dean!

But Kerry isn't the end of the world for Bush. Kerry has a long history of raising taxes, or at least voting for tax increases. You name the tax, and at some point in his Senate career, he's voted for it. Kerry was Mike Dukakis's Lt. Governor. Paging Willie Horton... Well, the Repubs don't have to bring him up, just let the media do that. Kerry doesn't have the propensity to stay dumb things like Dean, and I still think Dean is the better choice, but if it's Kerry, he's beatable. Edwards is a bigger problem: he's from the south, and has only been a Senator for only 6 years.