IA caucus - Kerry 38% (winner), Edwards 32%, Dean 18% (97% reporting) (Gephardt drops out)

self

[calvin sun]

FYI it's being carried live on Cspan. They said coverage starts at 7 pm ET, with the actual caucus at 7:30 pm ET.

[DollyCali]

Hehehehehehe ...

Yes, very difficult choice, it seems!

[mwl1]

Here's to hoping that Dean comes in first... his organization is said to be the best. Gephardt might still come in 2nd over Kerry -- his ground game may be stronger.

[OXENinFLA]

How do you figure in "Peter Paul" and him testifying against Hillary and getting her hauled off the senate floor in handcuffs into your theory?

[babaloo]

It has been a zoo believe me. My next door neighbor is an attorney who likes Dean because he was against the war. He said he would be supporting him at the caucus tonight tonight but if Dean had a majority he would go stand with the Kerry people because he is a veteran. He also tried talking me into going with him and his wife. I laughed and reminded him I was from the "darkside" and probably would not be appreciated there. He laughed and said that there was always hope for me.

[kingu]

Predictions: Gephart wins, Dean second, Kerry third.

(Reports will say that the GOTV effort by all the candidates backfired and that grandparents came out and intimidated their kids to vote for Gephart, the youth vote goes to Dean, and Kerry gets what's left. Edwards drops off the charts.)

Can't wait to see how wrong I am, but in this close of a race, anything goes.

[JohnnyZ]

Thought the rules said that anyone under 15% was not counted?

Yeah, but it's by precinct. I expect Kucinich to get delegates in some precincts where he has 15%, maybe with a little help from his deal with Edwards.

It's kinda hard to predict at the low end because, well, I have no frickin' clue how those fringe votes work out in the Rat caucus method.

[Spunky]

The way I understand it most of the caucases are held in private homes. Who is the host? A woman. Who do the women like? Pretty soft spoken Breck Boy Edwards.

Women always get there way.

EDWARDS WINS IOWA

;-)

[mwl1]

You should go and stand with the Dean people -- just take a headset so you don't have to listen to their nonsense. Every Bush supporter should be at the caucuses for Dean!

[OXENinFLA]

This pic just sums it all up.

[ambrose]

Oh yes, could we see a return of the arousal gap?

And given how catty and vicious women can be towards one another, Mrs. Dean's homely looks may be more of a liability among women than among males.

[BunnySlippers]

I'm with you, Jorge. That's my line-up too.

[DollyCali]

Just out of curiosity, are any FReepers out & about in Iowa at the caucus activities?

[Dog Gone]

Don't know about the percentages, but the people willing to bet real money on the outcome have the order of outcome as:

Dean
Kerry
Gephardt
Edwards

so you may be dead on the mark.

[mwl1]

I'll stand up for Judith Dean... at least she is not a fat, unkempt, uncouth, foul-mouthed airhead like the Heinz-Kerry bitch.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Earlier today, I posted my predictions for the Iowa Caucuses here http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1060073/posts?page=22#22. I still stand by them.

Basically, I say that the percentage of delegates elected tonight at the Iowa Caucuses will be as follows:

1. Dean 31%
2. Gephardt 29%
3. Edwards 20%
4. Kerry 19%

So it'll be bye-bye Gephardt and Kerry. Edwards will stick around, with SC being a must-win for him. Gephardt's departure will benefit Edwards in SC, since he should be able to get many of Gephardt's labor supporters, as well as blacks who are smart enough to stay away from Al Sharpton (Gephardt has the inside track on those voters because of Congressman Clyburn's endorsement, but if Dick's gone I think they'll go for Edwards).

[Congressman Billybob]

I not only agree with your conclusion, I went one better on a thread a couple says ago. I expect Dean to do 5% better as a result of large and thorough organization, and also because Joe Trippi had his thics surgically removed at birth.

Congressman Billybob

Click here, then click the blue CFR button, to join the anti-CFR effort (or visit the "Hugh & Series, Critical & Pulled by JimRob" thread).

[ambrose]

I actually like Judith Dean. She seems like a real person, not some conniving wench like Hillary (or Teresa Heinz).

[mwl1]

as long as Dean finishes first, I don't care how the others stack up -- if Gephardt is third or fourth, he's toast and will quit the race. The others can all move on to NH.

[mwl1]

Me too, but favorably comparing any woman to Hillary or Theresa is faint praise indeed.

[Right_in_Virginia]

So it'll be bye-bye Gephardt and Kerry.

What do you base this on?