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Dean Down to Two-Point Lead over Gephardt in Iowa
Reuters ^ | Jan 11, 2004 | John Whitesides

Posted on 01/11/2004 7:13:40 AM PST by nwrep

DES MOINES, Iowa (Reuters) - Democratic presidential front-runner Howard Dean holds a narrow two-point lead over Missouri Rep. Richard Gephardt in Iowa barely one week before the state's caucuses, according to a Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released on Sunday.

The former Vermont governor led Gephardt 25-23 percent in the three-day tracking poll, with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in third place at 14 percent and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards moving up to a close fourth at 13 percent.

"It's very, very tight," pollster John Zogby said. "It's a close race and it probably will go right to the end."

The poll of 500 likely caucus-goers was taken Thursday through Saturday and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent. The rolling poll will continue each day through the Jan. 19 caucuses.

The Iowa caucuses are the first meaningful prize in the Democratic race for the right to challenge President Bush in November, and Dean and Gephardt have been locked in a tight duel at the top in Iowa for months.

With eight days to go until the caucuses, 14 percent of likely participants are still undecided, the poll found.

Dean led among the very liberal, independents, young voters, the college educated and singles, while Gephardt led among union households, those with less than a college education and lower income voters.

The survey also found growth for Edwards, who gained strength during the course of the three days and earned the endorsement of the state's largest newspaper, the Des Moines Register, on Sunday.

"Edwards has picked up a lot of steam each night," Zogby said.

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman and retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who are not competing in Iowa, were each at 3 percent in the poll, with Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich at 2 percent.

Civil rights activist Al Sharpton and former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun were at 1 percent each.


Home > News > US News > Article

Dean Holds Two-Point Lead on Gephardt in Iowa Sun January 11, 2004 09:02 AM ET (Page 2 of 2) Dean, the one-time longshot who has roared to the front of the Democratic field nationally on the basis of his outspoken criticism of Bush, the Iraq war and Democratic Party leaders, had a roller-coaster three days during the polling.

The survey began on Thursday as four-year-old tapes surfaced showing Dean criticizing the Iowa caucuses as dominated by special interests, and continued on Friday when Iowa's most influential Democrat, Sen. Tom Harkin, endorsed Dean.

Zogby said Dean had a bad Thursday night as news spread in Iowa of his critical comments about the caucuses, made on a Canadian public affairs program, but recovered on Friday with the endorsement from Harkin.

"It could not have come at a better time for him," Zogby said.

Gephardt's backers were the least likely to change their mind, with 31 percent calling their support "very strong." Twenty-six percent of Dean's support was "very strong," with Edwards at 18 percent and Kerry 14 percent.

Polling in Iowa is complicated by the unique nature of the caucus system, which requires participants to leave their homes on what is typically a bitter cold night and gather with neighbors for hours before publicly declaring their support for a candidate.

The ability to identify and turn out supporters is critical to each of the campaigns. The Zogby poll only included respondents who said they were likely to attend the caucuses.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; britain; dean; electionpresident; gephardt; howarddean; president
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1 posted on 01/11/2004 7:13:41 AM PST by nwrep
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To: *Election President
PING
2 posted on 01/11/2004 7:14:10 AM PST by nwrep
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To: All
Rank Location Receipts Donors/Avg Freepers/Avg Monthlies
Never Never Land 1,438.00
51
28.20


238.00
19

Thanks for donating to Free Republic!

Move your locale up the leaderboard!

3 posted on 01/11/2004 7:16:01 AM PST by Support Free Republic (Freepers post from sun to sun, but a fundraiser bot's work is never done.)
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To: nwrep
Fingers crossed for Howard, GO DEAN GO!
4 posted on 01/11/2004 7:16:13 AM PST by Mr.Clark (From the darkness....I shall come)
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To: nwrep
I think the air is fizzing out of Dean's balloon.
5 posted on 01/11/2004 7:20:51 AM PST by Prodigal Son
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To: nwrep
Dean will NOT win in Iowa.

Big upset for the dim party.

I don't think he will win in NH either!
6 posted on 01/11/2004 7:21:20 AM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: nwrep
This all continues to point to a Clark nomination...and the Clinton's continue to hold the power of the Dems...
7 posted on 01/11/2004 7:22:36 AM PST by Solson (Our work is the presentation of our capabilities. - Von Goethe)
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To: nwrep
Zogby called the 2000 election very accurately. Gephardt will be first in Iowa.
8 posted on 01/11/2004 7:23:08 AM PST by TheGeezer
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To: nwrep
I'm hoping Gephardt wins, because it isn't healthy for one of America's major political parties to be taken over by far left freakazoids. President Bush will beat whoever the Democrats nominate anyway.
9 posted on 01/11/2004 7:27:15 AM PST by BCrago66
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To: nwrep
This is for all the Freeploaders on Free Republic.

DONATE MONTHLY TO FREE REPUBLIC TO INSURE THAT THE FOLLOWING HAPPENS AFTER THE ELECTION THIS NOVEMBER.


10 posted on 01/11/2004 8:17:21 AM PST by Grampa Dave (Freeploading is a liberal social disease. A $5/month donation to Free Republic is an instant cure!)
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To: nwrep
dang, Howie

go Howie go...we need you!
11 posted on 01/11/2004 8:17:31 AM PST by FRgal4u
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To: nwrep
I wonder what is causing the "Dean Dive"?

I can't believe that the RATS are getting smart.

Maybe Dean will go Green?
12 posted on 01/11/2004 8:17:56 AM PST by Mike Darancette (Proud member - Neoconservative Power Vortex)
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To: nwrep
The closer the race the nastier the exchanges. No one is better at digging up dirt than the Democrats. If the nomination is in play, the candidates will pull out out all the stops in attempting to damage each other. That saves GWB's team from having to do the dirty work.

Let them eat their own...

13 posted on 01/11/2004 8:51:51 AM PST by Senator_Blutarski
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To: Mike Darancette
I wonder what is causing the "Dean Dive"?

A bad reaction to "Mad How Disease." The mujahiDEAN are not pleased by any of this.

14 posted on 01/11/2004 8:55:32 AM PST by Petronski (I'm not always cranky.)
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To: Mike Darancette
Maybe Dean will go Green?

That reminds me, I read somewhere that Nader may join the presidential race if he got enough volunteers. Any volunteers out there?
15 posted on 01/11/2004 9:07:36 AM PST by GROOVY
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To: GROOVY
The problem Gerphardt has is Edwards is winning over the blue collar and Rural undecided voters that Gerphardt needs to put him over the top. Gerphardt is the incrubment in Iowa and incrubments always have trouble getting undecideds. He seems suck at 22, 23% right now.
16 posted on 01/11/2004 9:23:42 AM PST by Paul8148
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To: nwrep
I'm certainly hoping for Dean to win this one, and win in New Hampshire. Neither of those wins will guarantee him the nomination (Clark could still beat him in the South and West) but it will guarantee a long bloody fight this spring. Which is what I want to see happen.
17 posted on 01/11/2004 9:28:06 AM PST by samtheman
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To: Solson
Then why would Harkin endorse Dean? Harkin's is the kind of smart, opportunistic party hack that will always go with who he senses will win. I am not arguing with you, I just wonder if we have some of the "special sauce" that we get so often from Mr. Zogby.
18 posted on 01/11/2004 9:45:24 AM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: nwrep
I love the smell of Civil War in the morning! Wonder how many hours a day BJ and the witch are on the phone to Iowa per day???

Pray for W and The Truth

19 posted on 01/11/2004 9:50:02 AM PST by bray (The Wicked Witch of NY and Her 9 Flying Monkeys are Falling!)
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To: Mike Darancette
"I wonder what is causing the "Dean Dive"?

"The gang bang by Clinton, Washington insiders and the media???

20 posted on 01/11/2004 9:55:11 AM PST by ex-snook (Protectionism is patriotism in the war for American jobs.)
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