Denise Majette Considers Georgia Senate Race

Roll Call ^ | 19 Nov 2003 | By Lauren W. Whittington

[Amish]

Senator Denise Majette? Latest Name Floated as Desperate Democrats Search By Lauren W. Whittington ROLL CALL STAFF November 19, 2003

Rep. Denise Majette (D-Ga.) is quietly talking to some of her colleagues about the possibility of running for the Peach State’s open Senate seat in 2004, sources said Tuesday.

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How would she (or Baker or Franklin or another prominent black democrat) effect a cross over vote for Herman Cain???

Who can help me look at the math??

Contested pres Primaries in 2000

Demo- 384,000 (Gore/Bradley) GOP- 629,000 (Bush/McCain/Keys)

Contested GOP primaries in 2003:

Gov.: 509,000 Sen: 491,000

2004--Non Contested GOP Pres, so the game at the top is on the Dem side...

What will the numbers be?(assuming the Demo McCainiacs cross back, and there is a general shift inthe middle toward the primary which matters) ??? GOP: 550,000 Dem: 480,000

Presidential Primary: March 2, 2004 State Primary: July 20, 2004 Primary Run-off: August 10, 2004

So what is the likely turnout in the down ticket GOP Senate race primary 4 months later?

Back up to 520-560,000???

In an exact three way split, 174,000 wins...but in July all they have to do is keep someone under 50%. My guess will be that will occur easily.. the question is who comes in second? Giving the $$$ edge for Isakson... can we expect 38-40% for him? (218-224k). Both other candidates will need to focus on the front runner to drive up his negatives as they work on their own positives...

Collins and Cain average 30% each..which would be 156-168k... but who comes out on top? WHAT IF Herman comes on as "personality" and a Unique idea type (like Jindal was) with appeal for young votes and middle class whites...and can generate, say a 20,000 black cross over???

Then Cain comes in second, and the issue in the Aug 10 election a month later (with say a 480k turnout) is "who is not Isakson???" And hopefully Collins would endorse Cain. (I'm sure that it would be vice versa is Collins was the number two). Could Cain take 241k/50+%? I think yes?

Could he win in November?

It depends....on top of the ticket, who the Dem Nominee is, the Jindal North Louisiana effect-- will black cross over equal white fall-off (probably not fully...but does it do enough?)?

Comments?

[Vigilantcitizen]

Pure speculation on my part, but Majette running for the senate seat could hurt Cain's chances, bigtime.

Georgia ping.

[Kuksool]

The GA Senate race might feature a black vs. black contest after all.

[aynrandfreak]

She'd be better off consolidating her power in McKinney's old district. I would not want to run for statewide office in GA as a dem for a few years.

[William McKinley]

I don't assume there would be a white drop off.

[FreedomPoster]

While I like Cain with my heart, my head says he doesn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning the primary. As long as Mac Collins gets it, instead of Johnny I, that's OK.

That said, I think Majette is high on drugs if she thinks she can win a statewide Senate race. If she tries, and Cythia sneaks back in to her old haunts, I will be ROYALLY PISSED OFF!

[FreedomPoster]

Majette does not need to worry one bit about a Republican challenger in that district.

[Phantom Lord]

The big problem with this happening, if it does, is that no doubt McKinney would try to regain her old seat. And with GA's open primary system, if she lost her and her father could once again scream, THE JEWS! J-E-W-S!

[aynrandfreak]

Right, which is why she'd be smart to stay there.

[mhking]

I dunno. Majette is one of the few who probably could put a dent in a Cain candidacy.

Black conservative ping

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[AuH2ORepublican]

"Pure speculation on my part, but Majette running for the senate seat could hurt Cain's chances, bigtime."

---

Do you mean that it could decrease the number of blacks who vote in the Republican primary? I don't think that will be the case unless there's a really hot Dem primary taking place on primary day, and I don't believe there will be even if Majette runs. Blacks who are open-minded enough to vote for Cain in the primary will do so even if there's a decent black Democrat running. As for the general election, if Cain is the nominee, there's no way Majette will beat him. First of all, having a black liberal running against Cain would eliminate all doubts regarding who conservative Democrats in South Georgia will vote for. And second, I don't think Majette will get heavy support from the thousands of blacks who remain loyal to Jihad Cindy McKinney. They see Majette as a traitor because she dared run against the anti-Semitic McKinney, and would rather stay home than vote for her (especially if it's obvious that Bush will carry the state in a landslide). And Majette's relative lack of political experience (2 years as a Congresswoman, a judge before that) means that the RATs won't be able to exploit the fact that Cain has been in private business his entire life. So I wouldn't worry about Majette beating Cain.

However, I certainly hope that Majette stays in her House seat, since if she leaves it may allow McKinney to get back into Congress. We need McKinney to run in the 12th CD instead, where she can help vulnerable Republican freshman Congressman Max Burns hold on to his RAT-leaning seat either by causing a divisive RAT primary or by winning the nomination herself.

[Vigilantcitizen]

"And with GA's open primary system, if she lost her and her father could once again scream, THE JEWS! J-E-W-S!"

Sounding like the old spike lee nike commercials,"It's da shoes."

[FreedomPoster]

Exactly. It may be a ploy to get some 2004 donors anteing up early - but for the Congressional race, not Senatorial.

[FreedomPoster]

To which I must respond: You lose, BillyM! L-E-W-S lose!

[NewLand]

"While I like Cain with my heart, my head says he doesn't have a snowball's chance in Hell of winning the primary."

Why do you say that? The race has yet to begin...Cain will have better fund raising skills and networks, more national support, more black voter support, more charisma, better speaker...he's not a lock but I think he has a good chance...maybe a snowball's chance in North GA mountains at least... :-)

[xrp]

Except that a Democrat is not going to be elected in 2004 ;-)

[GraniteStateConservative]

Cain will not be the nominee because he won't open his wallet. He has awful statewide name ID.

[Guillermo]

This is BAD NEWS.

McKinney would step right back into her old seat.

Cain isn't going to win the primary anyways.

[Guillermo]

Money doesn't win elections in GA, especially primaries.

He needs grass roots, which, as far as I know, he does not have.

He'd be better off saving his money, or running against Denise Majette, assuming she stays in the 4th.

[Pubbie]

Don't worry, Majette is too liberal to win statewide.

PS: Anyone know how Herman Cain is doing polling wise?