Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Bobby Jindal with a 9% Lead

PoliticsLA ^ | 11/12/2003

[DodgeRam]

Brand New Poll A new poll conducted for PoliticsLA.com by JPI Polling & Market Research shows Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Bobby Jindal with a 9% lead over Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Kathleen Blanco.

Click here to see the cross tabs.

PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY SURVEY DATES: November 9-10, 2003 NUMBER OF RESPONDENTS: 667 MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 3.9% (95% confidence level)

Typically, the general public only sees final numbers and a general summary. But NOT this time. We've decided to open up the polling process and provide every piece of data available. So grab a cup of coffee and enjoy!

Click here to see the cross tabs. -- PoliticsLA.com - Wednesday November 12, 2003

[onyx]

First CA, them MS and KY, now possibly LA? Glory be, if it happens.

[ambrose]

This election is in the refrigerator... the door is closing, the light is out, the butter is getting hard and the jello-o is jigglin'!

[timydnuc]

Well....I for one think that Blanko desparately need the help of the national DNC. She needs McAwful, er, uh McAulif, Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton, and Bill and Hillary Clinton to make a rush campaign whistle stop tour through Louisianna endorsing her for the Govorner of that great state. This must start tomorrow if this true savior of the people (Blanko) is to win and lead the people on.

Oh Lord,...I didn't think I could write that. I'm LOL at that one. Ok, lets stop that laughing now Timy. Ok, just a little giggle. The New Orleans machine is not blind, stupid...yes, but not blind. It sees where the victory will fall. They messed over Mike Foster and he took it out on them for 8 years. I think they learned their lesson.

I'm OK now, honest! Having lived in Louisiana for some time I can tell you for a fact that RAT voter fraud makes up 3% of the state wide elections, sometimes 4%. When Mike Foster ran, 8 years ago, he also went into the 'run off' election with a small 6% lead in the polls (not from the news media, but independant LSU and Tulane polls). He won by more than 6% (sorry, I don't remember exactly how much more). Here's my point. The New Orleans RAT machine thinks it runs that state, but they got rocked by Mike Foster. Bobby will do better than Mike, you watch.

[Prolifeconservative]

"but is it possible that Louisiana is finally turning a corner on its ignoble political past?"

It began with the election of New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. Then Nagin turned around and not only crossed party lines he crossed the Democratic sleeze machine to throw his support behind Jindal. This was a political earthquake in my opinion. I never thought I'd see the day a New Orleans Mayor endorsing a staunch Republican.

Blacks have had it. I heard a guy on the radio today saying he and others were tired of the Democratic "pimps" courting their votes every election. If just 5% of the black vote State-wide defect to Jindal as predicted, it's going to be a long day for Blanco come Saturday.

[alnick]

It's so refreshing to have someone running here in Louisiana that I won't have to hold my nose to vote for. Wow, a Louisiana politician that I can be proud of! Who'da thunk it?

[OldFriend]

It's probably a bigger lead than advertised!

GO JINDAL GO

[OldFriend]

The media has been running with the hitlery 44% margin over the rest of the pack.......and that was only 403 registered dems from across the country. Truly a poll designed to create spin...and buzz!

[JNB]

Here is a general question. Was the GOPs 72 hr get out the vote efforts in Mississppi the big factor in Barbours victory last week, and are the efforts going to be replicated this saturday?

One big thing that hurt the GOP from the off year election in 95 to the 2000 general election was the Democrats were masters in getting out their vote, 2002 looked to be even in terms of get out the vote efforts, with victories in NC and GA and losses in SD and LA. If the GOP does now have a effective GOTV machine that can be used in local races nationally, that does change the dynamics of many elections.

[Saints fan]

I think it began when the iron bars slammed shut behind Edwin Edwards at the federal penitentiary. That's when it seemed to change. Remember when he ran against David Duke and his campaign slogan was " Vote for the crook, it's important."?

[GraniteStateConservative]

The 72 hour plan is actually a years and years plan. The RNC has spent millions collecting information on independent voters-- since the day Bush was elected. They have bought subscription lists of magazines, membership lists of organizations, donor lists from candidates and organizations, voter history lists, credit card lists so they know how much people make and whether they own their own car and whether they own a car and so on, lists from issue surveys they do and they even track these voters across the country (if you are an independent and you fit any profile as likely to vote GOP, they'll target you in your new state). This is the biggest piece of the puzzle. Their database is priceless.

Then, they target these voters with information-- tailored for them. A parent? You'll get information on tax breaks for having children, No Child Left Behind, etc. A grandparent? You'll get information on protecting Social Security. A woman? You'll get letters written in script font in deep purple color. All of this has been market tested into the ground. It works like magic. They want to use every advantage to seal the deal-- get these people to decide to pull the lever for the GOP candidate.

The next step is to get these people to show up and vote. That's the 72 hour part. They have digital maps with pinpoints and every pinpoint is an individual likely GOP voter. They then use computers to create walk lists so that volunteers are as efficient as possible in "knock and drag". They get celebrity and big name Republicans-- county, local, state, and national-- and send them out to help with the GOTV effort. They then use checklists throughout the day to keep tabs on whether they've voted and call those people or stop by their homes. They also coordinate lifts to the polls if necessary.

The RNC gets better at it every day-- culminating with Bush-Cheney '04.

[Plutarch]

I can't wait to see how the media downplays, ignores or belittles the significance of a Jindal victory in LA.

Should be priceless.

[the Real fifi]

"Local issues"--that has been their story with each defeat.

[Plutarch]

"Local issues"--that has been their story with each defeat.

That's right. That excuse will likely be trotted out to explain Bush's re-election landslide as well.

[ducks1944]

We are PROUD in Mississippi to have Haley Barbour as our new Governor. Just like with Fordice the first Republican in 102 years. And he won a land slide reelection first to win 2 terms also. Being raised in Indiana and seeing what is going on hear is great for our family.

[JNB]

While it was in part due to the 11th hr DUI revelation in 2000, Karl Rove stated that 4 million Christian conservatives did not vote that year. I read that among self proclaimed Christian conservatives in 2000, turnout was only 56%. One thing I did notice in the Mississppi Gov race this year and in the GA, SC and NC races last year, that higher turn out actually helped the GOP, not hurt them, and that flies in the face of so called conventional wisdom, and says that the GOP GOTV efforts are starting to equal those of Democrats. Could it be bad experiences from the 95 off year elections,(In the 96 elections Republicans were put on such a defensive that they regaurded retaining the majority in congress as a victory), the 98 mid terms and the 2000 election, elections the GOP expected to do well in spurred this plan into action?

[Theodore R.]

What makes this race optimistic for the GOP is that Jindal has had all the momentum since Labor Day. He dispatched of his GOP rivals, then led the primary ballot 2-1 over Blanco, and has led throughout the general election campaign. Still the institutional factors favor Blanco, but I am beginning to think Jindal will pull it out, 52 or 53 percent.

[Theodore R.]

I understand that Haley Barbour got only 6 percent of the black vote despite all the GOP "outreach" efforts there. It may be that the black vote in the South is locked at 94 to 95 percent Democrat, and no one can change that fact.

[Theodore R.]

It may be that Blanco went into the general election campaign and squandered the first three weeks because she assumed that she would win based on institutional factors. She did not realize that an energized campaign by the GOP could change the dynamics of the race. Notice that Blanco has all the institutional leadership support: EWE, Breaux, Johnston, Landrieu, Mitch Landrieu, Jim Brown, William Jefferson, Cleo Fields, etc.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Could it be bad experiences from the 95 off year elections,(In the 96 elections Republicans were put on such a defensive that they regaurded retaining the majority in congress as a victory), the 98 mid terms and the 2000 election, elections the GOP expected to do well in spurred this plan into action?

I defintely think it was a factor. Republicans were losing seats in 1996, 1998 and 2000. If they didn't come up with a better turnout plan they could have lost the majority by now.

[ducks1944]

The GOP get out the vote may have helped some, but our Media is just most Liberal. They said Fordice would not win against Mabus but Fordice did it. Fordice had never held office before. And won in landslide in 2nd. term. Mississippi is changing. Now we need to take care of our Congress here. We are looking forward to 2004. I knew Haley Barbour would win but I thought it would be even more. We had a black women runing against our LT. Governor Amy Tuck and brought our more black vote. Amy Tuck changed party before this election she was a Democrat but very conservative democrat.