Iowa Poll says Gephardt edges ahead of Dean; Flag Flap Destroys Dean?

AP ^ | November 9, 2003

[nwrep]

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Article published Nov 9, 2003
Iowa Poll says Gephardt edges ahead of Dean

Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri has inched ahead of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean as leader for the Democratic presidential nomination in Iowa, according to a new poll surveying registered voters who plan to go the caucuses.

Gephardt was the favorite of 27 percent and Dean, 20 percent, the Des Moines Sunday Register said in a copyright story.

That's a gain of six percentage points for Gephardt and a three-point drop for Dean since July.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. Inc., of Des Moines, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. It is based on phone interviews with 501 voters who said they were registered as Democrat, Green Party or no-party and indicated they plan to go to the Jan. 19 caucuses.

Sen. John Kerry, of Massachusetts, was in third place with 15 percent.

The remaining candidates were in the single digits, according to the poll.

Sen. John Edwards, of North Carolina, was supported by 5 percent, unchanged from July despite extensive campaigning and television advertising in the state.

Sen. Joe Lieberman, of Connecticut, who stopped campaigning in Iowa, dropped from 10 percent in the July poll to 5 percent and retired Gen. Wesley Clark drew support from 4 percent of likely caucus participants. He also withdrew from personal campaign appearances in the state.

Ohio U.S. Rep.Dennis Kucinich remained at the 3 percent level of support he saw in July.

Former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York both had 1 percent each, the poll said.

The poll conducted Nov. 2-5 may have reflected some reaction to Dean's comment in which he said he wanted to be the candidate "for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks."

Though he fell from the front-runner position, poll results indicate his popularity remained high.

Among likely caucus participants who have formed an opinion about Dean, 73 percent rate their feelings toward him as mostly or very favorable.

"His intention was good, but he made a pretty stupid remark," said Debra Sanborn, 39, a firm Dean supporter who lives near Luther in Boone County. "I certainly don't think he supports the tenets of what the rebel flag stands for."

Gephardt, who won the Iowa caucuses in 1988 but lost the Democratic nomination to Michael Dukakis, had the highest popularity ratings. Among likely caucus participants with an opinion about Gephardt, 82 percent regard him favorably.

Gephardt's lead over Dean could be wobbly since more of Dean's supporters say their minds are made up and they are certain of their participation in the Jan. 19 caucuses, which launch the presidential nominating season for the nation.

Poll respondent LaVerne Robinson, 60, a nurse from West Des Moines, supports Gephardt but could still change her mind over the next two months.

She said she agrees with "some of the battles he has fought about the issues I believe in," including support for Medicare.

She said she hasn't followed Dean's campaign as closely but does agree with him in opposing the Iraq war.

About 20 percent of the likely caucus participants indicated they are uncommitted to one candidate. Among those that do favor a candidate, three-fourths said they could change their minds before the caucuses.

Gephardt has fairly broad-based support in the new poll leading among likely caucus participants 65 or older, among men and women. He is also now the favorite among union households with 28 percent to Dean's 24 percent and he took the lead from Dean among Catholics.

Dean leads the group among likely caucus participants with incomes $70,000 or over and those with college degrees. He also leads in the 18 to 44 age category.

Democrats are confident they will field a candidate that will defeat President Bush in the 2004 election. In the latest Iowa Poll, 45 percent say any Democratic candidate, regardless of who it is, has a very good chance of winning against Bush. That's up from 34 percent in the Iowa Poll taken in July.

[rustbucket]

Flag flap destroys Dean? Proof that the Confederacy was not a bad thing.

[chiller]

Great if true. Wouldn't Iowa caucusers tend to agree with Dean about "red neck Southerners."

[cubreporter]

Fine with me. That way we could see gephart lose his cool in the debates and shake his finger and do the kennedee thumb/finger gesture like most dems do so they can look like kennedee. :) GWB would clean the floor with little dickie g.

[Guillermo]

He probably lost a lot of support after he apologized.

That was his blunder.

[Guillermo]

Anyways, farm issues probably dominate Iowa politics, and farmers tend to be socialists.

Ultimately, they're gonna vote for the one they think can bring them the most in a Federal Subsidy.

[zbigreddogz]

This is great news. Dean will still win the nomination, but it's gonna be bloody. Gephard wins Iowa, Dean wins New Hampshire, and Clark wins South Carolina. Then, let's say Lieberman wins Arizona.

Hehehehehe, eventually, Dean will pull it off, but not before he's blown his wad of cash and went so far to the left that no independents will support him.

This is gonna make great TV though. Pass the popcorn.

[comebacknewt]

Personally, I think Gephardt would be Bush's toughest competitor. So, I hope the news isn't true.

If Dean runs, I think we'll see a landslide. If Gephardt runs, I think we see a repeat of 2000 with the following problems: Dick probably takes back West Virginia, runs very strongly in Missouri, and has a shot at Ohio as well.

[JohnnyZ]

I dunno that Dean necessarily fell in support recently. They're comparing his support vs. July. More recent polls have shown a tie or small Gephardt lead in Iowa, before the flag thing. And Dean's coming endorsement by the SEIU and AFSME (or whatever they call themselves) will be a big bump in terms of getting actual votes in the caucus, which is driven by organizations with followers.

Looks like Edwards is permanently stuck in 4th, at best. If he loses to Lieberman or Clark in Iowa, who aren't even competing full time, that's a serious blow to his bank shot chance at being the anti-Dean.

[.cnI redruM]

The South has risen again. ;)

Couldn't happen to a better snot-box.