Posted on 10/18/2003 12:29:25 PM PDT by JustPiper
If the 2004 election is another squeaker, President Bush could lose it because he failed to follow through on his promise to help undocumented Hispanic immigrants gain legal status.
Polls indicate that Latino voters regard immigration as a litmus test issue -- the way African Americans do civil rights, one expert said -- and Bush shows signs of losing once-promising support.
Meantime, Democratic presidential candidates and members of Congress -- with some assistance from Republicans -- are moving to seize the immigration issue that Bush so far has dropped.
Bush can recoup -- and some GOP strategists say he must -- by showing renewed interest (or even taking leadership) to help illegal immigrants get legal and secure U.S. borders at the same time.
Bush carried 35 percent of the Latino vote in 2000 after a vigorous outreach effort (and frequently speaking Spanish on the stump) -- nine percent more than GOP candidate Bob Dole got in 1996.
On Sept. 6, 2001, with Mexican President Vicente Fox by his side, Bush said ''there are many in our country who are undocumented and we want to make sure their work is legal.''
After Sept. 11, 2001, homeland security concerns put a freeze on Bush's plans, and then relations with Fox soured because Mexico opposed the Iraq war. Both immigration and U.S. policy toward Latin America get constant coverage on Spanish-language television.
So this August, a New York Times/CBS poll showed that only 21 percent of Latinos would vote for Bush. And a poll for the GOP Latino Coalition showed that a generic Democrat would beat Bush by 49 percent to 30 percent.
The latest bipartisan Battleground survey showed that, of all demographic groups, Latinos showed the largest ''dropoff rate'' -- a 15 point difference between Bush's personal approval rating of 61 percent and his job performance of 46 percent.
The falloff has also hurt the GOP. In 2000, GOP congressional candidates won 34 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls. In 2002, it was 35 percent. But in the August Latino Coalition poll, registered voters said they'd vote Democratic 55 percent to 25 percent.
All this is despite findings that 35 percent of Latinos defined themselves as ''conservative'' and only 22 percent as ''liberal'' -- and by a whopping 53 percent to 7 percent, they said that lowering taxes was a better way to grow the economy than raising taxes.
Conducted by the GOP firm of McLaughlin and Associates, the poll found that 86.7 percent of Latinos favored a policy allowing the federal government to ''normalize the status of illegal workers in this country'' provided they have a clean record.
Moreover, 90.8 percent polled said it was ''important'' -- and 74.8 percent, ''very important'' -- that U.S. immigration laws be reformed to ''reduce illegal immigration by promoting a system which increases the legal flow of workers into this country.''
The leading Democratic presidential candidates are all in favor of plans to legalize undocumented immigrants with clean records, increase the number of work permits and visas, and reach an agreement with Mexico to strengthen border security.
In Congress, several bills have been introduced -- or will be -- to liberalize immigration rules. The most generous is a forthcoming measure being worked out by Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) allowing immigrants who have been in the country for five years, have paid taxes for three and have taken English instruction to get legal work permits.
While some Republicans are as progressive on immigration issues as most Democrats, the GOP has a significant nativist wing calling for the denial of public services to illegals.
GOP pollster Ed Geoas, who has done extensive polling on immigration, says he's convinced that Bush and White House political adviser Karl Rove are eager to take steps toward liberalization, but are waiting until homeland security and economic conditions are better.
Another key GOP strategist says, ''we have to revisit it. It's a big issue in battleground states like New Mexico and Florida.''
Bush had best not wait too long.
He better never...
I also regard [illegal] immigration as a litmus test. President Bush supports illegal immigration = I don't vote for President Bush.
Ditto.
Also, notice he says "on immigration, some Republicans are as progressive as some Democrats". Another jerk who thinks the GOP can win if they adopt a "me tooism" policy and parrot whatever the 'RATs say. Yeah, that worked GREAT in the 40s and 70s, didn't it?
Aren't those folks ever grateful though. He left the borders open on 9/11 and they are still open. Maybe it's just time to close them to keep anymore from coming in and voting against him for not 'legalizing' them. In fact, just send all the illegals here already back home and he won't have to worry about their support -- or lack of it. And that would include the terrorists as well, of course. An idea whose time is way past due.
Anyone else support that sort of "amnesty"?
He should also consider that illegal voters vote Democrat; anything that increases the number of illegal voters will thus hurt the Republicans.
Actually he is a Democrat. I think that explains it!
At some point, and maybe we are here now, people are going to be fed up enough with illegal's that it will cut the other way.
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