Election Scouting Report - 2000 results, Key Counties for 2004.

Election Returns | 6-27-03 | Dan from MI

[Betty Jane]

Thanks for the info Dan. Your posts are always interesting and informative

[JohnnyZ]

I like it. I like it a lot.

And I think Wisconsin and Minnesota and Iowa are ripe for the picking.

[Kuksool]

Excellent analysis of the 2004 election. Bush shouldn't just focus on the Electoral College Map. He also should examine the Senate 2004 Map, and campaign heavily in states that are good GOP Senate pickups. FL, GA, NC, NV, and maybe SD are good opportunities for GOP gains. Bush might have to campaign in AK to protect a GOP incumbent.

My home state of IL, the Land of Lincoln, ought to be changed to the Daley Empire. Chicago is just too large to overcome. Plus IL has Downstate social conservatives who believe whatever the labor unions tell them. Bush is not going to win IL.

[ACAC]

This is a great post. Just a few things. First, Jackson county contains all of KC and a lot of the KC suburbs. Boone county contains Columbia in the central part of the state. You are correct that St. Charles county is comprised of St. Louis suburbs and exurbs. Here are a few other counties that are important for Bush:


CHRISTIAN
Office Candidate Party Votes % of Votes
U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 29 of 29
Al Gore, Joe Lieberman DEM 7,896 34.0%
George W. Bush, Dick Cheney REP 14,824 63.8%
Harry Browne, Art Olivier LIB 44 .2%
Howard Phillips, J. Curtis Frazier CST 26 .1%
Pat Buchanan, Ezola Foster REF 146 .6%
John Hagelin, Mike Tompkins NAT 13 .1%
Ralph Nader, Winona LaDuke GRE 279 1.2%

This is Christian county. It is the fastest growing county in the state of Missouri. I am actually moving there next month. It is also the county between Springfield and Branson. It is considered the county that contains most of the Springfield suburbs. It is heavily Republican and Bush needs a large margin from here.



JASPER
Office Candidate Party Votes % of Votes
U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 65 of 65
Al Gore, Joe Lieberman DEM 11,737 31.3%
George W. Bush, Dick Cheney REP 24,899 66.4%
Harry Browne, Art Olivier LIB 111 .3%
Howard Phillips, J. Curtis Frazier CST 31 .1%
Pat Buchanan, Ezola Foster REF 115 .3%
John Hagelin, Mike Tompkins NAT 14 .0%
Ralph Nader, Winona LaDuke GRE 574 1.5%



Jasper county (Joplin)is the most Republican large county in Missouri. I grew up there and it is more Republican now than it was 10 years ago. Bush needs to get into the high 60s here.




NEWTON
Office Candidate Party Votes % of Votes
U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 27 of 27
Al Gore, Joe Lieberman DEM 6,447 30.5%
George W. Bush, Dick Cheney REP 14,232 67.3%
Harry Browne, Art Olivier LIB 43 .2%
Howard Phillips, J. Curtis Frazier CST 22 .1%
Pat Buchanan, Ezola Foster REF 86 .4%
John Hagelin, Mike Tompkins NAT 6 .0%
Ralph Nader, Winona LaDuke GRE 326 1.5%


Newton county holds most of the suburbs of Joplin, if Joplin is big enough to have suburbs. It is also a very fast growing county. Turnout in these three counties increased enough in 2002 to give Jim Talent his victory. These counties really need a large turnout for Bush to win in 2004.

[Dan from Michigan]

Thanks. You know that area better than I do.

Sounds like those 3 counties are somewhat similar to my county in Michigan(Livingston - Fastest growing in the state)

[JNB]

Part of the problems Bush had in 2000 was due to the fact that the GOP allowed themselves to be defined as extreme in the wake of the impeachment mess of 98-99, and also, this caused black turn out to surge to record levels in 2000 as well. Another thing Bush had to overcome is Gore was running as the quasi incumbent during a time of alleged peace & properity, and that gave him a boost. Another factor when people analyse the 2000 vote that is never discussed is the impact the Bush DUI revelations had in the last days before the election. This in itself probably shifted at least 1% of the vote nationally, and the impact in the MidWest was probably 2-3% in some areas. The exit polls I saw was the people who decided to vote in the last days before the election broke heavily for Gore.

[Dan from Michigan]

and also, this caused black turn out to surge to record levels in 2000 as well

It showed in Detroit, Southfield, Flint, Saginaw, Lansing.

the Bush DUI revelations had in the last days before the election. This in itself probably shifted at least 1% of the vote nationally, and the impact in the MidWest was probably 2-3% in some areas

The DUI probably heavily hit with the Soccer Moms AND the Macomb types. Bush did poorly in Canton(52% win - should be 55-60) and lost Macomb, the Reagan Dem county. Lost Suburban Oakland as well(Soutfield mainly)

[Brandon]

I think the DUI story mattered. Am I the only one who noticed that that story broke and hour or so before Perot was on Larry King endorsing Bush? Perot had staunchly refused to say in advance who he would endorse, the interview with King was being hyped to heaven. I know Perot's creds have gone way down since '92, but I think he does (or did) still have people who listened to him. I think as the day wore on and Gore & Co. got no advance notice of an endorsement, they decided it was time to pull the trigger on the DUI thing, to drawn Perot out.

Another thing that happened was that the Green Party vote imploded over that last weekend. The polls were showing Nader has making a significant different right up until the election day, and then it all evaporated. I think a lot of tree huggers got into the voting booth, and just couldn't bring themselves to vote for Nader, because they knew it would help Bush.

Finally, there was Buchanan. People talk a lot about how Nader cost Gore the election, but no one mentions that in a number of those states Gore won by 1% or less, Buchanan's votes would have made the difference, if they had been cast for Bush. Now of course, not ALL of them would have been, if Buchanan hadn't run -- some would have stayed home. But the same is true of Nader. At the moment, I don't see any likelihood of an independent conservative candidate as strong (relatively speaking) as Buchanan, and that could tip some of the 1% states back to Bush.

And there's always incumbency. Figure it to be good for 1% to 5%, depending on the state and the circumstances in the country and the world on election day. I think right now Bush has to be the favorite, but it will still be close, and we could lose if we don't get out there and fight.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Dan, excellent analysis, but I think you're being too pessimistic. The non-Southern suburbs, which swung mightily from the GOP to the RATs in the 1990s, will almost certainly switch back to us because of national security issues. This will greatly increase Bush's percentages in the Philly suburbs in PA, NJ and DE, the Washington suburbs in VA and MD, the New York suburbs in NY, NJ and CT, the Boston suburbs in MA and NH and the Chicago, LA, Minneapolis and Detroit suburbs. I think Bush will get around 57% in New Hampshire and Virginia, around 55% in Delaware and Pennsylvania (Western PA is no longer the Democrat stronghold it was during the '80s), around 53% in Michigan and Minnesota, around 50% in CA, IL, NJ, CT and MD, and around 47% in NY and around 45% in MA. If I'm correct about this, Bush should get between 375-475 electoral votes.

The one RAT that scares me is Gephardt, whose pro-labor record and economic populism could make things tough in WV, MI, OH, PA, MO, IA and WI, plus he voted against the Yucca Mountain repository so he could challenge in NV. But Gephardt would still need a recession, a failed war and a lot of luck to be able to beat Bush.

[Impy]

To win Illinois in the future Republicans have to kick major ass downstate as they should but don't.

[delapaz]

Ohio bump. Being from Ohio, trust me, there is no democrat on the current ticket who can win Ohio. Democratic party is a mess here and its not getting better. Now if we could just get Ohio Republicans to friggin' act like Republicans we'd be alright.

Southern Ohio is a R stronghold and getting stronger. Dems are losing their grip on smaller Union Dem towns like Dayton and Toledo esp. as those towns diversify their industry and grow huge suburbs in tech and small business. Cincinnati remains one of the few large Cities that voted for Bush and balances other Ohio cities like Cleveland. To win Ohio a Democrat must get Union voters to the polls in old union towns, appeal to the rurals by being conservative and hold their own in Suburbs. All Bush will have to do is GOTV in Ohio Southern cities, Cincy, Columbus, and Dayton. the rural support is already there.

[Dan from Michigan]

Dems are losing their grip on smaller Union Dem towns like Dayton and Toledo esp. as those towns diversify their industry and grow huge suburbs in tech and small business.

I noticed a little bit with Toledo(which borders here).

Before Proposal A which cut our prop taxes, developement stopped at the state line. Today, I see a lot of new development in Monroe County(between Toledo and Wayne County). Monroe used to be solid democrat(although social conservative). Gore won it, but so did Posthumus(GOP) for governor. They love their guns there too.

Bedford Township(Dundee) in Monroe borders Toledo. It is the fastest growing township there, and it is also now the largest and most GOP. It can now counter Monroe City.

I'm sure the same is happening on Toledo's south/West suburbs.

[delapaz]

Yes Toledo is growing up around the outer 23 belt. A lot of jobs out there too.

[HapaxLegamenon]

Jackson County – 150183 – Bush by 1603 – 49% (Kansas City suburbs)

Jackson County is Kansas City proper (all of City of Kansas City, except for North of River towards Airport), and some eastern suburbs (Indepedence and Raytown, Demo strongholds)

That being the case, I don't understand the data. Jackson county should be strongly in Demo column.

[Dan from Michigan]

I think Missouri separated Jackson County from KC City in the election returns.

The accurate total then would be adding the KC votes to Jackson County.

And combining those two - Gore got 59% and won by 560001

[Dan from Michigan]

56001

[sdk7x7]

Hey Dan... wondering if you could send me a link or two to the info you posted (the election data). I'd like to do analysis of New York, my home state, which will definitely be an important one in '04. (The question, unfortunately, is not WHETHER Bush will lose here, but by how much. NY sucks).

-sdk

[Dan from Michigan]

I haven't done NY, but you can likely get the info from the NY Bureau of Elections or NY Secretary of State's office.

[sdk7x7]

But can you send me the link to the site with the info you got?