Posted on 06/27/2003 11:37:45 AM PDT by Dan from Michigan
ELECTION 2000 (and what needs to be made up for 04)
Right now, I’m assuming the dem nominee is Kerry, Graham, Dean, Edwards, or Gephardt. I expect Lieberman to lose badly in the primary since he’s too ‘conservative’. Sharpton, Mosely-Braun, and Dennis the Menace are jokes. One never won a race. One even lost in Illinois. One wrecked Cleveland. Wesley Clark is an interesting candidate, and could make things interesting.
I don’t care what any poll says right now, things will tighten up by 04. It ALWAYS does. We also got to play ball like we are trailing.
States Bush won by 15%
Wyoming by 87,253 - 41%(Bush won by 41%)
Idaho by 197,945 - 41%
Utah by 310,434 - 41%
Alaska by 71,816 - 31%
Nebraska by 193,103 - 30%
North Dakota by 79,474 - 27%
Montana by 102,491 - 25%
South Dakota by 71,765 - 23%
Oklahoma by 270,009 - 22%
Texas by 1,367,521 - 21%
Kansas by 223,962 - 21%
South Carolina by 226,683 - 16%
Indiana by 342,536 - 16%
Mississippi by 148,581 - 15%
Kentucky by 232,428 - 15%
Alabama by 247,058 -15%
You can count on these staying in Bush’s column in 2004. Dems may go after Kentucky or Montana, but they will stay a double-digit win for Bush. 10%+ wins in all these states.
States Gore won by 15%
Washington DC by 144,984 - 76%(not a state, but treating it as one for this)
Rhode Island by 121,965 - 29%
Massachusetts by 733,269 - 27%
New York by 1,531,833 - 24%
Hawaii by 67,424 - 18%
Connecticut by 249,907 - 18%
Maryland by 322,433 - 17%
New Jersey by 493,654 - 16%
I can see MAYBE New York or Connecticut being semi-close, but I can’t see Bush winning there. Too much to make up. The rest will be solid dem in 04. 20% for the dems in Mass, DC, and Rhode Island. Smaller wins wins in Hawaii, Jersey, Maryland, and Connecticutt. Bush might take NY to 8% at the MOST, but Bush would need to make up 1.6 million votes to win. That’s simply too many, and he’ll be lucky if he gets ½ of it. The dem won’t take NY by 24%, but 12% would not surprise me one bit.
Bush by 10-14%
North Carolina by 370,467 – 13%
Georgia by 305,330 – 12%
The dems think they can win in NC and Georgia each election. I don’t think that will happen in 04 unless whites stay home and blacks vote. Bob Dole won both of those states, and Bush will win them again.
Gore by 10-14% Delaware by 43,557 - 13%
California by 1,283,638 – 12%
Illinois by 569,628 – 12%
Vermont by 28,893 – 10%
Delaware is a strong dem area, as is Vermont. The GOP in Illinois is in major shambles thanks to George Ryan and company. Bush will have to be his best for Illinois to even be in play, and he’ll still have to contend with Cook County. 570,000 votes is a LOT to make up. California may be in competition the way Davis runs things, but I can’t see Bush winning with the demographics there, particulary LA County. Bay Area is as dem as ever as well. Bush needs to make up 1 million votes in Ca. These 4 will likely stay dem. 10% wins for the dems in Illinois, Vermont, and Delaware, and Bush will probably take some blame for California along with Davis. 7-8% loss there.
Bush by 6-9% Colorado by 145,604 – 8%
Louisiana by 134,833 – 8%
Virginia by 210,560 – 8%
West Virginia by 38,260 – 6%
Arizona by 79,362 – 6%
Arkansas by 51,666 – 6%
I consider anything under 10% a near tie, and all these states will be tough fights. Virginia (52%) was much closer than it should have been in 00. I think Bush will have less trouble there this time, but 2008 or 12 will be a tougher year there. Colorado is never easy, especially with 3rd parties being strong there. It’s GOP and conservative leaning, but scary to defend. I consider it the “Maine” of the GOP.
Bush over performed in Arkansas, Louisiana and and West VA in 2000. They are oftentimes democrat states, although not like they used to be. All have some populist elements, and are also social conservative. Gephardt would be extremely tough to beat in West VA. Louisiana will depend mostly on black and pro-life turnout. Arkansas just scares me.
Arizona scares the hell out of me. Used to be a strong GOP lean. Klinton won it in 96. Napoliantano won there. Bush got 51% there. It’s becoming another Florida with the retirees moving there. Immigration is big there as well. Pima County is a dem area, and Maricopa county was close last election. I expect Bush to probably win there, but in 08, it’ll really be scary.
Gore by 6-9% Washington State by 138,691 – 6%
If you add Nader and Gore here, it’s a 9pt race. The techs are hurtin’ badly as well. This will be a tough pickup. Currently, my money is on the dem, although a Gephart or big union type could be easier to beat here. Greenies will be tougher. King County is the 800 lb gorilla here.
Bush by 0-5% Ohio by 176,426 – 4%
Tennessee by 78,691 – 4%
Nevada by 21,590 – 4%
Missouri by 78,695 – 3%
New Hampshire by 7,332 – 1%
Florida by 930(or 532?) – less than 1%
They say a Republican can not win without Ohio, and I agree. It’s the 2nd most GOP of the Great Lakes states behind Indiana. Columbus and Dayton areas are tossup. It’s Youngstown/Warren/Toledo/Cleveland vs Cincy, Oxford, and the rural areas.
Missouri is another must win. I think Carnahan’s crash and St Louis’s fraud made this closer than is should be. It’s literally St Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia vs the rest of the State.
Gore Made Tennessee close. That should be a 5-10 pt GOP win.
One of the big 3 - Florida is a toss up. Will Jacksonville, Pensacola, and Panama City counter the Gold Coast? Who will take the Tampa/St Pete and Orlando area?
After Yucca Mtn, Nevada will be scary. New Hampshire is a toss up every year.
Gore by 0-5%
Maine by 31,385 – 5%
Michigan by 194,621 – 4%
Pennsylvania by 201,103 – 4%
Minnesota by 57,900 – 2%
Oregon by 6,460 – less than 1%
Iowa by 4,130 – less than 1%
Wisconsin by 5,396 – less than 1%
New Mexico by 366 – less than 1%
3rd parties made Maine close. One of the electoral votes is usually up for grabs, with the other being strong dem. With the Nader votes, it was 11% higher for Gore and Nader over Bush. Tough, but only winnable if Bush is at his best. My money is on the dem, especially a ‘noreaster’.
Minnesota and Oregon were unexpectedly close. Portland and Eugene vs the rest of the state in Oregon. In MN, it’s the Twin Cities, Duluth and the Iron Range vs the rest. The GOP did great in MN in 2002. 3rd parties are stronger in Oregon and MN than other states. In a 2 way race, I have to favor the dems slightly. In a 3-4 way, anything can happen.
Iowa and New Mexico are two of the toughest to call.
Wisconsin is a tough state. Had a GOP governor for years, but voted dem for president since Dukakis. Madison and Milwaukee are the trouble.
Michigan is extremely regional. If Detroit, the Saginaw Valley(heavily union), Marquette, Ann Arbor and Lansing/East Lansing turnout heavy, it’s trouble. If West Michigan and Livingston County turn out heavy, we have a shot. The UP, NE lower, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, St Clair, Lenwaee, Eaton, and Shiawassee are the swing areas. Bush bombed in Macomb, Oakland, and Monroe, and over performed in the UP.
Pennsylvania is also very regional. Bush needs to improve bigtime in the Pitt/Philly sububs, and hope for bad weather in Philly and Pitt.
Some Key States
Wisconsin:
Counties Gore won by 20%:
Menominee by 724 – 77% - 1227 voters (82% American Indian)
Douglas by 6663 – 63% - 21658 voters
Dane by 66527 – 61% - 232631 voters (Madison)
Milwaukee by 88838 – 58% - 432694 voters
Bush won by 20%
Washington by 23047 – 67% - 23047 voters
Ozaukee by 16125 – 65% - 47690 voters
Waukesha by 68786 – 65% - 203524 voters
Florence by 712 – 64% - 2403 voters
Green Lake by 2150 – 60% - 9096 voters
Taylor by 2024 – 59% - 8967 voters
Other Key Counties (50,000+ voters)
Rock – 70293 voters, Gore won by 13005, 58%
LaCrosse – 55441 voters, Gore won by 4128, 51%
Kenosha – 63635 voters - Gore won by 3538, 51%
Racine – 88725 voters – Bush won by 2451, 50%
Marathon – 58161 voters – Bush won by 2337, 50%
Brown – 107616 voters – Bush won by 5162, 50%
Winnebago – 75930 voters – Bush won by 4347, 50%
Outagamie – 75618 voters – Bush won by 6725, 52%
Sheboygan – 55123 voters – Bush won by 6079, 54%
Arizona:
Counties Gore won by 20%
Apache by 7078 – 67% - 19418 voters (82% minority)
Santa Cruz by 1889 – 59% - 8879 voters (82% minority)
Counties Bush won by 20%
Graham by 2622 – 62% - 9687 voters
Yavupai by 16081 – 59% - 67950 voters
Other Key
Pima – 287399 voters – Gore by 23109, 51% (Tuscon)
Maricopa – 899256 voters – Bush by 93284, 53% (Phoenix)
Missouri:
Areas Gore won by 20%
St Louis City by 71758 – 77% - 124696 voters
Kansas City by 57604 – 72% - 121653 voters
Bush won 54 smaller counties by 20%+
Other Key areas:
St Louis County – 486713 voters – Gore by 25942 – 51%
Jefferson County – 77182 voters – Gore by 1850 – 50%
Boone County – 59583 voters – Gore by 385 – 48%
(Columbia) Jackson County – 150183 – Bush by 1603 – 49% (Kansas City suburbs)
St. Charles County – 128642 – Bush by 18308 – 56% (St Louis Suburbs/Exurbs?)
Greene County – 102881 – Bush by 18087 – 58% (Springfield)
Ohio: Areas Gore won by 20%
Cuyahoga by 167814 – 63% - 573909 voters (Cleveland)
Mahoning by 28752 – 61% - 114054 voters (Youngstown)
Trumbull by 22989 – 60% - 96144 voters (Warren)
Bush won 44 counties by 20%+ Best wins:
Warren by 29176 – 70% - 69019 voters (Franklin, Lebanon)
Clermont by 26202 – 68% - 69787 voters (Miamiville)
Delaware by 19505 – 66% - 55343 voters
Butler by 40197 – 63% - 136633 votes (Oxford)
Fairfield by 14458 – 62% - 54043 votes (Baltimore)
Licking by 13984 – 60% - 62383 votes (Homer)
Greene by 12887 – 58% - 65068 votes (Cedarville)
Other Keys
Lucas – 187120 – Gore by 35002 - 58% (Toledo)
Lorain – 112028 – Gore by 11852 – 53% (Lorain)
Summit – 224574 – Gore by 23038 – 53% (Akron)
Portage – 62779 – Gore by 3175 – 50% (Kent)
Montgomery – 230651 – Gore by 4785 – 50% (Dayton)
Franklin – 413447 – Gore by 4156 – 49% (Columbus)
Clark – 57285 – Gore by 324 – 49% (New Carlisle, Springfield)
Stark – 159618 – Bush by 2845 – 49% (Canton)
Lake – 102450 – Bush by 5250 – 51% (Perry)
Wood – 52098 – Bush by 4817 – 53% (Bowling Green)
Hamilton – 377509 – Bush by 42597 – 54% (Cincinnati)
Medina – 66734 – Bush by 10714 – 56% (Lodi, Medina)
Pennsylvania
Counties Gore won by 20%
Philadelphia by 348223 – 80% - 561183 voters
Lackawanna by 22373 – 60% - 96383 voters (Scranton)
Bush won 31 counties by 20% - Best wins
Lancaster by 60932 – 66% - 175317 votes (Lancaster)
Cumberland by 23749 – 62% - 88062 votes (New Cumberland)
Butler by 18972 – 62% - 70824 votes (Harrisville)
York by 35694 – 61% - 144244 votes (York)
Other Keys
Allegheny – 582748 – Gore by 94332 – 57% (Pittsburgh)
Delaware – 248077 – Gore by 29025 – 54% (Chester)
Montgomery – 332424 – Gore by 32367 – 54% (Phily Suburbs)
Erie – 112335 – Gore by 10372 – 53% (Erie)
Washington – 84441 – Gore by 7622 – 53% (Washington)
Beaver – 73803 – Gore by 6434 – 53% (Beaver Falls)
Luzerne – 119586 – Gore by 9871 – 52% (Phily Suburbs?)
Northampton – 104690 – Gore by 5701 – 51% (Bethlehem)
Bucks – 263422 – Gore by 10987 – 50% (Phily suburbs)
Cambria – 60286 – Gore by 2307 – 50% (Beaverdale)
Leigh – 115958 – Gore by 1175 – 49% (Allentown)
Westmoreland – 156709 – Bush by 9066 – 52%(Murrysville)
Schuylkill – 58300 – Bush by 3626 – 51% (New Philidelphia)
Dauphin – 100658 – Bush by 9241 – 53% (Hershey, Harrisburg)
Chester County – 187562 – Bush by 18033 – 53% (Valley Forge)
Florida
Counties Gore won by 20%+
Broward by 209801 – 67% - 574795 votes (Ft Lauderdale, Hollywood, Gold Coast)
Gadsden by 4968 – 66% - 14710 votes (57% black)
Palm Beach by 116781 – 62% - 432592 votes (West Palm Beach, Gold Coast)
Leon by 22365 – 60% - 103049 (Tallahassee)
Bush won 20 Counties by 20% - Big wins
Oklaloosa by 35174 – 74% - 70639 votes (Fort Walton Beach)
Clay by 27104 – 73% - 57326 votes (Lake Geneva)
Santa Rosa by 23472 – 72% - 50265 votes (Gulf Breeze)
Bay by 19787 – 66% - 58752 votes (Panama City)
Collier by 30529 – 66% - 92088 votes (Naples)
St Johns by 20044 – 65% - 60716 votes (St Augustine)
Escambia by 32074 – 63% - 116595 votes (Pensacola)
Other Keys
Alachua – 85656 – Gore by 13241 – 60% (Gainesville)
St Lucie – 77934 – Gore by 6854 – 53% (Fort Pierce)
Volusia – 183533 – Gore by 14947 – 53% (Daytona Beach)
Miami-Dade – 625084 – Gore by 39275 – 53% (Miami)
Pinellas – 397792 – Gore by 15805 – 50% (St Petersburg)
Osceola – 55589 – Gore by 1969 – 51% (St Cloud/Kissimmee)
Hernando – 65159 – Gore by 1998 – 50% (Spring Hill)
Orange – 279994 – Gore by 5703 – 50% (Orlando)
Pasco – 142518 – Gore by 1002 – 49% (Land O Lakes)
Hillsborough – 359860 – Bush by 11203 – 50% (Tampa)
Sarasota – 160773 – Bush by 10247 – 52% (Sarasota)
Citrus – 57153 – Bush by 4242 – 52% (Hernando)
Manatee – 110152 – Bush by 8775 – 53% (Bradenton)
Brevard – 218258 – Bush by 17867 – 54% (Cape Canaveral, Melbourne)
Charlotte – 66860 – Bush by 5781 - 53% (Port Charlotte)
Polk – 168499 – Bush by 15095 – 54% (Winter Haven)
Marion – 102861 – Bush by 10476 – 54% (Ocala)
Martin – 61949 – Bush by 7350 – 55% (Indiantown)
Seminole – 137559 – Bush by 16503 – 55% (Geneva)
Lake – 88555 – Bush by 13439 – 56% (Minneola)
Duval – 264381 – Bush by 44234 – 58% (Jacksonville)
Lee – 184165 – Bush by 32581 – 58% (Fort Myers)
And I think Wisconsin and Minnesota and Iowa are ripe for the picking.
Sounds like those 3 counties are somewhat similar to my county in Michigan(Livingston - Fastest growing in the state)
It showed in Detroit, Southfield, Flint, Saginaw, Lansing.
the Bush DUI revelations had in the last days before the election. This in itself probably shifted at least 1% of the vote nationally, and the impact in the MidWest was probably 2-3% in some areas
The DUI probably heavily hit with the Soccer Moms AND the Macomb types. Bush did poorly in Canton(52% win - should be 55-60) and lost Macomb, the Reagan Dem county. Lost Suburban Oakland as well(Soutfield mainly)
Another thing that happened was that the Green Party vote imploded over that last weekend. The polls were showing Nader has making a significant different right up until the election day, and then it all evaporated. I think a lot of tree huggers got into the voting booth, and just couldn't bring themselves to vote for Nader, because they knew it would help Bush.
Finally, there was Buchanan. People talk a lot about how Nader cost Gore the election, but no one mentions that in a number of those states Gore won by 1% or less, Buchanan's votes would have made the difference, if they had been cast for Bush. Now of course, not ALL of them would have been, if Buchanan hadn't run -- some would have stayed home. But the same is true of Nader. At the moment, I don't see any likelihood of an independent conservative candidate as strong (relatively speaking) as Buchanan, and that could tip some of the 1% states back to Bush.
And there's always incumbency. Figure it to be good for 1% to 5%, depending on the state and the circumstances in the country and the world on election day. I think right now Bush has to be the favorite, but it will still be close, and we could lose if we don't get out there and fight.
Southern Ohio is a R stronghold and getting stronger. Dems are losing their grip on smaller Union Dem towns like Dayton and Toledo esp. as those towns diversify their industry and grow huge suburbs in tech and small business. Cincinnati remains one of the few large Cities that voted for Bush and balances other Ohio cities like Cleveland. To win Ohio a Democrat must get Union voters to the polls in old union towns, appeal to the rurals by being conservative and hold their own in Suburbs. All Bush will have to do is GOTV in Ohio Southern cities, Cincy, Columbus, and Dayton. the rural support is already there.
I noticed a little bit with Toledo(which borders here).
Before Proposal A which cut our prop taxes, developement stopped at the state line. Today, I see a lot of new development in Monroe County(between Toledo and Wayne County). Monroe used to be solid democrat(although social conservative). Gore won it, but so did Posthumus(GOP) for governor. They love their guns there too.
Bedford Township(Dundee) in Monroe borders Toledo. It is the fastest growing township there, and it is also now the largest and most GOP. It can now counter Monroe City.
I'm sure the same is happening on Toledo's south/West suburbs.
Jackson County is Kansas City proper (all of City of Kansas City, except for North of River towards Airport), and some eastern suburbs (Indepedence and Raytown, Demo strongholds)
That being the case, I don't understand the data. Jackson county should be strongly in Demo column.
The accurate total then would be adding the KC votes to Jackson County.
And combining those two - Gore got 59% and won by 560001
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