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This is a great post. Just a few things. First, Jackson county contains all of KC and a lot of the KC suburbs. Boone county contains Columbia in the central part of the state. You are correct that St. Charles county is comprised of St. Louis suburbs and exurbs. Here are a few other counties that are important for Bush:

CHRISTIAN
Office Candidate Party Votes % of Votes
U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 29 of 29
Al Gore, Joe Lieberman DEM 7,896 34.0%
George W. Bush, Dick Cheney REP 14,824 63.8%
Harry Browne, Art Olivier LIB 44 .2%
Howard Phillips, J. Curtis Frazier CST 26 .1%
Pat Buchanan, Ezola Foster REF 146 .6%
John Hagelin, Mike Tompkins NAT 13 .1%
Ralph Nader, Winona LaDuke GRE 279 1.2%

This is Christian county. It is the fastest growing county in the state of Missouri. I am actually moving there next month. It is also the county between Springfield and Branson. It is considered the county that contains most of the Springfield suburbs. It is heavily Republican and Bush needs a large margin from here.

JASPER
Office Candidate Party Votes % of Votes
U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 65 of 65
Al Gore, Joe Lieberman DEM 11,737 31.3%
George W. Bush, Dick Cheney REP 24,899 66.4%
Harry Browne, Art Olivier LIB 111 .3%
Howard Phillips, J. Curtis Frazier CST 31 .1%
Pat Buchanan, Ezola Foster REF 115 .3%
John Hagelin, Mike Tompkins NAT 14 .0%
Ralph Nader, Winona LaDuke GRE 574 1.5%

Jasper county (Joplin)is the most Republican large county in Missouri. I grew up there and it is more Republican now than it was 10 years ago. Bush needs to get into the high 60s here.

NEWTON
Office Candidate Party Votes % of Votes
U.S. President And Vice President Precincts Reporting 27 of 27
Al Gore, Joe Lieberman DEM 6,447 30.5%
George W. Bush, Dick Cheney REP 14,232 67.3%
Harry Browne, Art Olivier LIB 43 .2%
Howard Phillips, J. Curtis Frazier CST 22 .1%
Pat Buchanan, Ezola Foster REF 86 .4%
John Hagelin, Mike Tompkins NAT 6 .0%
Ralph Nader, Winona LaDuke GRE 326 1.5%

Newton county holds most of the suburbs of Joplin, if Joplin is big enough to have suburbs. It is also a very fast growing county. Turnout in these three counties increased enough in 2002 to give Jim Talent his victory. These counties really need a large turnout for Bush to win in 2004.