[JNB]

Part of the problems Bush had in 2000 was due to the fact that the GOP allowed themselves to be defined as extreme in the wake of the impeachment mess of 98-99, and also, this caused black turn out to surge to record levels in 2000 as well. Another thing Bush had to overcome is Gore was running as the quasi incumbent during a time of alleged peace & properity, and that gave him a boost. Another factor when people analyse the 2000 vote that is never discussed is the impact the Bush DUI revelations had in the last days before the election. This in itself probably shifted at least 1% of the vote nationally, and the impact in the MidWest was probably 2-3% in some areas. The exit polls I saw was the people who decided to vote in the last days before the election broke heavily for Gore.

[Dan from Michigan]

and also, this caused black turn out to surge to record levels in 2000 as well

It showed in Detroit, Southfield, Flint, Saginaw, Lansing.

the Bush DUI revelations had in the last days before the election. This in itself probably shifted at least 1% of the vote nationally, and the impact in the MidWest was probably 2-3% in some areas

The DUI probably heavily hit with the Soccer Moms AND the Macomb types. Bush did poorly in Canton(52% win - should be 55-60) and lost Macomb, the Reagan Dem county. Lost Suburban Oakland as well(Soutfield mainly)