How many Dems will cross the aisle?

media in general | 11-08-02 | opocno

[opocno]

(paraphrase) Pelosi takes over the Congress, several conservative Democrats are expected to cross over to the Republicans. Republicans are courting ...

[opocno]

Does anyone know who will switch from the Democrats to the Republicans (House/Senate) and who has been approached?

[GraniteStateConservative]

What's the point in having them switch? We don't need them. Their voting behavior won't change-- they'll support the same legislation regardless. In both the Senate and House, we have enough votes to get much of what we want quite easily.

The issue at hand is that many older Democrats will retire in 2004 leaving vulnerable open seats because of disillusionment at their prospects to retake the House that year.

[Common Tator]

The issue at hand is that many older Democrats will retire in 2004 leaving vulnerable open seats because of disillusionment at their prospects to retake the House that year.

I could not agree with you more. Hollings has aready announced that he will not run for re-election to the senate in S.C.

The Democrats in the house are very very socialist leftist and getting more so as the years roll on.

[thingumbob]

The Democrats in the house are very very socialist leftist and getting more so as the years roll on.

It's the radical sixties generation gaining seniority status in the congress...I say good the farther to the left they go the easier it is to take back the middle ground!

[pitts40]

I am not sure which dems will switch, but I do know that I am sick and tired of hearing the same old adages of "Social Security, Prescription Drugs and the Environment". Oh yeah, I shouldn't forget about Education either! Does these people know any other topics other than these? They sound like an old broken record.

[The Old Hoosier]

The Democrats in the house are very very socialist leftist and getting more so as the years roll on.

Not entirely. Don't forget Ralph Hall--who may get booted from the Dems anyway (ala Traficant) when he votes for Hastert--and some other Dems hungry for a piece of the pie. Pro-life, pro-2a Rep-elect Lincoln Davis (D.-Tenn.), anyone? Will a man like that want Nancy Pelosi as majority leader?

Any seat that switches to the (R) side--particularly if it's held by a conservative--is good news, since switchers are not likely to switch back, and they tend to get more in line with the conservative legislative agenda.

Plus, it's good to get the numbers up, to save the majority in future elections when things may not go so well. The Senate looks very good for 2004 (Hollings and Miller will likely both retire; maybe Daschle; Boxer, Edwards, Lincoln look vulnerable; Bayh and/or Daschle's seat will be winnable if they run for prez), but we'll need moderate Dem retirements to save us in the House. We won almost all the competitive House seats this year, and they will take a lot of resources to defend, even if Tex. and Ga. have another round of redistricting.

[fieldmarshaldj]

"Pro-life, pro-2a Rep-elect Lincoln Davis (D.-Tenn.), anyone? Will a man like that want Nancy Pelosi as majority leader?"

In a word, yes. I'm in an adjacent district and watched the barrage of political ads by this slimeball. Davis is part of the cabal that has helped keep the TN legislature Democrat (through grotesque gerrymandering going back to after the 1970 reapportionment) despite the GOP winning a majority of the vote. He DREW that 4th district seat for himself when Van Hilleary vacated it to run for Governor. He got tons of $$ from the national party (Rangel, et al) and conducted himself like a national Democrat. We had a fantastic candidate in Janice Bowling, but she couldn't match the $$ Davis had nor overcome the Dem edge that Davis had personally seen to. Davis may not be radical left, but he has the ethics of one. I'm personally hoping that Van Hilleary comes back and yanks that seat away from him, we lost a good man with his retirement (and even worse was his loss to a scumbag 'Rat ex-Mayor of mine who bought the Governorship on a pile of lie-ads).

[conservative_2001]

What's the point in having them switch? We don't need them. Their voting behavior won't change-- they'll support the same legislation regardless. In both the Senate and House, we have enough votes to get much of what we want quite easily.

Definitely not true. Senator Shelby's ACU rating as a Democrat was in the 60's. Now he's voting with us in the 90's and is practically a party-line vote for us. Congressman Deal would have a similar record. Senator Campbell's ACU rating as a Democrat was maybe in the 30's or 40's, now it's about 50 points higher.

These guys do vote more with their new party when they change. And most importantly, it's one more vote for the majority. If Shelby and Campbell were still Democrats, we'd only have 49 votes right now and Democrats would be in the majority.

I say bring out the welcome wagon for Congressman Hall and Senators Nelson (Nebraska) and Miller.

[Commander8]

Oh just what we need, more moderate Farm Belt type Democrats to water down the Republican Caucus' ideological makeup.

[Gorest Gump]

Ralph Hall votes more conservative than most Republicans. I cannot understand how he justifies staying in that party. Come home, Ralph! We would love to have you.

[Gorest Gump]

Has Ralph said that he will vote for Hastert?

[SoCar]

Ralph said he would vote for Hastert if needed to break a tie. His vote is not needed now, but we'll have to see if he can bring himself to vote for Pelosi.

[elenchus]

Please see the strategy needed to defeat Landrieu and why her defeat is not just important but CRUCIAL to the conservative agenda:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/786126/posts

[The Old Hoosier]

Yes.

[Tennessean4Bush]

We need to get rif of Landrieu for many reasons. But the most important is that she is anit-life/pro-abortion.

Pro-life got a net increase of 3 in the Senate, I think. Saxby Chambliss is pro-life and is replacing an anti-life candidate and Norm Coleman is pro-life in Minnesota and replacing an anti-life Senator in Paul Wellstone. Also, I believe Talent in Missouri is pro-life and he is replacing Jean Carnahan and I think she was anti-life. Hutchison in Arkansas lost but I think Pryor the demonRAT is at least against partial birth abortion, if not pro-life. We will see if he votes as conservatively as he campaigned.

So, if we can get rid of Landrieu and replace her with a pro-life Senator, then we will be up 4.

[Torie]

Here are the folks that defy the Bush odds. I think Mondale might have won the Peterson district though. Coleman's winning coalition was very different from Bush's in Minnesota. Edwards and Stenholm had close races this time, as did Matheson, Hill and Lucas and as always, Moore.

	     Bush Margin
Stenholm-TX	44.50%
Hall-TX	        40.50%
Edwards-TX	35.00%
Taylor-Miss	34.00%
Matheson-Utah	34.00%
Sandlin-TX	29.00%
Pomeroy-ND	28.00%
Turner-TX	26.00%
Lucas-KY	24.00%
Skelton-MO	19.20%
Hill-Ind	14.60%
Spratt-SC	14.50%
Holden-PA	14.50%
Peterson-Minn	14.40%
John-LA	        13.63%
Boucher-Vir	12.49%
Moore-KS	11.40%
Cramer-AL	10.30%
	
	     Gore Margin
Simmons-CT	15.40%
Quinn-NY	14.08%
Castle-Del	13.70%
LoBiondo-NJ	11.80%
Leach-Iowa	11.10%
Shays-CT	10.30%

[Torie]

Coleman won in the Peterson district over Mondale by 5%, as compared to Bush's margin over Gore of 14.4%. The Coleman percentage I suspect is more of a typical GOP performance. Still, the Dems will have a hard time holding the district if Peterson retires.

[Gunder]

I used to live in that district and I can tell you -- there's no way the Dems will hold it if they put up a pro-abortion candidate. Colin Peterson admitted as much himself earlier this year when he was discussing Janet Roberts' (D) uphill battle against Mark Kennedy (R) after the districts were re-drawn. (Apparently, Janet Roberts also considered herself pro-life, tho I never read much to back that up. But I digress.)

[Gunder]

However, I'll bet Landrieu will be trotting out that ban on human cloning she co-authored.

[WOSG]

Just wait and see if Pryor helps the Dems fight any judiial nominees. Then you'll know if his stripes change when he goes to DC.

I do worry on one score - we had a strong conservative in Jesse Helms and now have a moderate Dole in there. is she commited to voting for prolife bills or not?