Posted on 09/17/2002 4:01:18 PM PDT by BlackRazor
Poll: Renzi, Cordova tied early in race
By GARY GHIOTO
Sun Staff Reporter
09/17/2002
Democrat George Cordova of Payson and Republican Rick Renzi of Flagstaff are in a dead heat in the 1st Congressional District race, says a Grand Canyon State Poll released this morning.
If the election were held today, both Cordova and Renzi would pull down 37 percent support from likely voters in the new rural congressional district that includes Flagstaff. Libertarian Edwin Porr won support from 3 percent of those responding to the survey.
Showing the volatility of the contest, which is one of six races that could determine the future of Republican control of the U.S. House, 23 percent of those surveyed are undecided.
"I think it's good news for both candidates," said Fred Solop, director of the Social Research Laboratory at Northern Arizona University.
"It's a competitive district and many pundits across the nation have been keeping an eye on the race because the district could go any way," added Solop.
The post-primary poll was conducted between Sept. 12 and 14, and 803 randomly selected likely voters participated.
"Likely" voters are folks who voted in the 2000 general election, consider themselves likely to vote in the upcoming general election and are following the campaign.
The margin of error is 3.5 percent.
Democrats outnumber Republicans in the 1st Congressional District. According to the latest voter registration totals from the Secretary of State Web site, Democrats make up 45.1 percent of the voters in the district, 34.2 percent are Republicans, less than 1 percent are Libertarian and the remaining 20 percent are "other."
Despite the Democrats' advantage in registered voters, Republicans are more likely to vote on election day, Solop said, and the survey looks at likely voters.
As Cordova and Renzi fire up their general election campaigns, voters said they want an "issue-oriented" campaign. Fifty-five percent said they wanted to know more about where candidates stand on issues, rather than their personal qualities.
For example, 19 percent of those surveyed said the economy was the number one issue followed closely by education at 13 percent. Foreign policy, including the war on terrorism, are important to 7 percent of those polled, while health care was rated the top issue by 6 percent.
The environment is key to 4 percent of those polled with social security at 1 percent. Some 26 percent of those polled named a host of "other" issues as important to 1st District voters.
Though running equally with Renzi at 37 percent support, Cordova is lagging far behind in name recognition.
When asked to identify the Republican candidate for Congress, 27 percent correctly named Renzi. Cordova was named by only 11 percent of likely voters. Some 61 percent of voters said they know "a lot" or "some" about Renzi, while 38 percent said they know "a lot" or "some" about Cordova, said the poll.
Solop said the style of Cordova's campaign, which focused on grassroots, retail campaigning in Native American reservations and avoided larger cities in the district, accounts for the lack of name district-wide name recognition.
According to campaign finance reports, Renzi outspent Cordova considerably on broadcast advertisements. Solop said Cordova's challenge is to increase name recognition with district voters.
According to the poll, Cordova is heavily supported by older voters, "people of color," voters who say they are "liberal" and those who report an annual income of less than $35,000.
Renzi's base of support is largely white men, younger voters, "conservatives" and those who report incomes greater than $75,000.
While the poll found that 26 percent of likely voters in the district are undecided, "Cordova's support for the congressional seat is more firm" than Renzi's, said Solop.
Sixty-three percent of those who said they would vote for Cordova said they would not change their minds before election day. In contrast, 56 percent of Renzi's supporters said they would not sway from their candidate.
Renzi carried more than 24 percent of the vote in the Sept. 10 primary, beating out five others for the Republican nod. Cordova garnered just over 21 percent of the Democratic vote in the seven-candidate primary.
(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)
Bad for who? Doesn't the fact that Cordova is dead even despite low name recognition suggest he has a lot of potential up-side? Or is that precisely the point you were making?
Did anyone happen to note the character that won the new AZ-7 race ? A Socialist Mexican named Raul Grijalva. This guy should be good for some laughs. He makes Ed Pastor look like J.D. Hayworth. :-P
I agree that the GOP is in a fairly good position in NV-3, but I'm not sold on AZ-1 yet. How do you think the GOP would fare in NV-3 if Herrera had not been hit with all the ethics problems, and the retraction of the police endorsement? That's the main reason I give a slight edge to Porter right now, but still consider AZ-1 a pure toss-up.
Well, I think the media and NV Dems overhyped this guy from the start. They should've gone with someone older, moderate, more experienced (and, to be honest, Anglo). Although, if anything --and if the Dems really had the courage to have tried it-- they should've had Berkley move to the new 3rd, had Herrara run in the 1st, and they might've bagged both seats. Berkley can at least claim to have beaten Porter once before. It's too bad we can't do more to help Lynette Boggs-McDonald against Berkley, she would definitely be a star for our party if she prevailed.
"That's the main reason I give a slight edge to Porter right now, but still consider AZ-1 a pure toss-up."
A lot of those Dems in the 1st are Conservative "Pintos" (like former Dem Bob Stump), and simply will not vote for a liberal (let alone a Hispanic liberal !). I was personally rooting for Sidney Hay on the GOP side to take on Steve Udall, thinking that Renzi would've had more trouble against Udall. When I heard the Dems put up Cordova, who only got 1/5th of the total primary vote (and, as with the two other GOP RINO candidates we discussed in ME & NH, would never have won in a runoff), I definitely moved this to a "win" for us (barring a total screw-up by Renzi). Not to say Renzi should take the race for granted, but I'm fairly confident here.
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