I agree that the GOP is in a fairly good position in NV-3, but I'm not sold on AZ-1 yet. How do you think the GOP would fare in NV-3 if Herrera had not been hit with all the ethics problems, and the retraction of the police endorsement? That's the main reason I give a slight edge to Porter right now, but still consider AZ-1 a pure toss-up.
Well, I think the media and NV Dems overhyped this guy from the start. They should've gone with someone older, moderate, more experienced (and, to be honest, Anglo). Although, if anything --and if the Dems really had the courage to have tried it-- they should've had Berkley move to the new 3rd, had Herrara run in the 1st, and they might've bagged both seats. Berkley can at least claim to have beaten Porter once before. It's too bad we can't do more to help Lynette Boggs-McDonald against Berkley, she would definitely be a star for our party if she prevailed.
"That's the main reason I give a slight edge to Porter right now, but still consider AZ-1 a pure toss-up."
A lot of those Dems in the 1st are Conservative "Pintos" (like former Dem Bob Stump), and simply will not vote for a liberal (let alone a Hispanic liberal !). I was personally rooting for Sidney Hay on the GOP side to take on Steve Udall, thinking that Renzi would've had more trouble against Udall. When I heard the Dems put up Cordova, who only got 1/5th of the total primary vote (and, as with the two other GOP RINO candidates we discussed in ME & NH, would never have won in a runoff), I definitely moved this to a "win" for us (barring a total screw-up by Renzi). Not to say Renzi should take the race for granted, but I'm fairly confident here.