Poll: Dole takes early lead over Bowles in Senate race [NC]

Charlotte Observer ^ | 9/17/02 | Associated Press

[BlackRazor]

Poll: Dole takes early lead over Bowles in Senate race

Democrats see race tightening before Nov. 5

Associated Press

RALEIGH - Republican Elizabeth Dole holds a strong lead over Democrat Erskine Bowles in the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Jesse Helms, according to a new poll released Monday.

The telephone poll of 625 registered voters who said they were likely to vote in November gave Dole 49 percent to Bowles' 35 percent with 15 percent undecided.

The poll, taken by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., was conducted last weekend following the primary elections and has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

A spokesman for Bowles said the poll shows the former White House chief of staff is making progress in narrowing the gap with Dole. An Elon University poll months ago had Dole well ahead of her prospective Democratic opponents.

Dole seemed unfazed by the latest gauge of voter thinking.

"The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day," she said during her campaign rounds Monday.

The new poll was taken for media outlets, including the Winston-Salem Journal and WRAL-TV.

[BlackRazor]

I've also seen reference to another poll, supposedly conducted by ABC News that was released on primary day, giving Dole a 52-42 lead over Bowles - but I've been unable to find any information on that one.

(I routinely post every poll I can find on the various Governor, Senate and House races around the country. If you'd like to be pinged when I post, please FreepMail me.)

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

[Coop]

Thank you kindly.

[Deport Billary]

49% isn't very impressive but it's probably enough to win. Irksome will have to change some minds which were already made up.

[Adder]

That will depend on how effective Bowles message of fear is. Yesterday, he was attempting the "scare seniors ploy" {"Privatize Social Security? Dangerous!"] which may play in the larger towns and cities but not in the country. NC can be a tough place to develope a message because of its diverse populations. But as a basicly moderate conservative state, with a large anti-Clinton faction, Dole should do well. It doesn't look like the residency issue is going to get traction.

[MattinNJ]

While normally stuck in the liberal bastion of NJ, I took the wife and the mini freeper to the Outer Banks (Corolla) this year. I was amazed at how many "I miss Reagan" bumper stickers there were on cars. I didn't even know they existed. God Bless NC.

[Deport Billary]

that same poll says Easley's approval numbers have fallen to 40%, 56% disapprove

But he's on television warning of a "voter backlash" on the lottery referendum vote. He's in for a big surprise.

[fieldmarshaldj]

To this day, I cannot imagine who was the genius Dem who decided to lure or even let Erskine Bowles into this race. Jeez, his family will be forever known as the ones who lost the Gov's mansion to the GOP for the first time in the 20th Century in 1972 when Erskine's pop, "Skipper", blew it against Jim Holshouser. Look for junior to follow in dad's footsteps again. Definitely a near or at 60-40% blowout for Liddy. They're gonna regret not having lured Jim Hunt out of retirement who could've made it closer.

[Common Tator]

49% isn't very impressive but it's probably enough to win. Irksome will have to change some minds which were already made up.

Forty nine percent with 16 percent undecided is fantastic. That means Bowles has to win 98 percent of the undecideds to win the election. The most Bowles can hope for is 11 out of 16. A 54 to 46 loss to Dole is the best that Bowles can even hope for. It will end up 56 to 44 for Dole and that is called a huge landslide.

A 14 point lead is an insurmountable obsticle with 7 weeks left. The greatest win in presidential history was Reagan's 16 point win 1n 1984.

Gore dropped out of the race in Ohio in 2000 when Bush had a 7 point lead with 9 percent undecided. Gore the never give up until the Supreme court makes you guy, gave up in Ohio when he was down 7 with 9 undecided.

A 15 point lead with 16 percent undecided is as good as it gets.

[Adder]

Thank goodness the lottery referendum went down to defeat yesterday in the legislature. The dems wanted it on the ballot to get dem voters, more of whom support the lottery, to the polls to "hep" their boy. It was a cynical move from the git go and 16 dems crossed over to defeat it. I think NC will stay in the republican column. Hey, we are doin our bit to help W! I hope the other states can engineer some repub victories. Maybe then I won't have to get so queasy watching the Senate judiciary committee destroy careers because the nominees don't think like a dem. Nor will I have to endure any more of Dascle's twisted rhetoric.

[ExSoldier]

Dole MIGHT get a significant bump if she'll come out strongly in favor of the 2nd Amendment and go on record as not supporting a permanent version of the Brady Bill, Assault Weapons/magazine ban and in favor of the concept of both a State Concealed Weapons Permit and in passing FEDERAL reciprocity for state CCW's. Think it's possible? Naaaah