Poll shows Blagojevich could win [Durbin leads Durkin by 21]

SPRINGFIELD -- A new poll shows that Illinois may be headed toward electing its first Democratic governor in three decades.

With less than two months to go before the Nov. 5 election, a sampling of 599 likely voters taken on Sept. 8-10 shows that 52 percent would vote for Democratic U.S. Rep. Rod Blagojevich.

Republican Attorney General Jim Ryan, who is struggling to overcome voter confusion about his last name, would receive 36 percent of the vote in the poll. It was conducted for The Pantagraph and WEEK TV of Peoria by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, also showed that:

• Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin continues to hold a commanding lead over his little-known challenger, state Rep. Jim Durkin, R-Westchester.

Blagojevich's lead mirrors surveys taken in recent weeks that show Jim Ryan struggling to differentiate himself from scandal-plagued Gov. George Ryan. The two are not related.

Recently, Jim Ryan's campaign issued a statement urging newspapers and broadcasters to make sure voters do not confuse the two-term attorney general with the governor, who is leaving office in January after one term.

A spokesman for Jim Ryan's campaign said the poll may have showed a tighter race had pollsters attempted to make sure respondents were not confused by the name issue.

"If you eliminate the name confusion, the margin will be a lot closer," said Jim Ryan spokesman Dan Curry. "I think, as we get closer to the election, this confusion will lessen."

Asked their opinion of Jim Ryan, just 38 percent of the respondents had a favorable feeling toward the attorney general, compared to 46 percent for Blagojevich.

The poll also showed the Chicago congressman is topping Jim Ryan in almost every geographical area of the state. In Republican-rich Central Illinois, the Research 2000 results give Blagojevich a 52-33 advantage. In Cook County, Blagojevich's home turf, respondents favored the congressman by a 60-29 margin.

Only in the collar counties of Chicago, where Jim Ryan -- an Elmhurst resident -- once served as a county prosecutor, did he surpass Blagojevich, registering a 50-43 lead.

The Blagojevich campaign said the polls are another indication that voters are ready for a change in Springfield. If Blagojevich is elected, he would become the first Democrat to reside in the governor's mansion since Dan Walker served a single term in the 1970s.

"Certainly, Congressman Blagojevich is not taking his lead for granted," said campaign spokesman Doug Scofield. "What the polls show is an enthusiastic response to the congressman's message."

In the race for control of the U.S. Senate, meanwhile, Illinois appears to a safe lock for the Democrats, who are hanging on to a one-seat majority.

The poll shows that the well-funded Durbin is favored over Durkin by a 56-35 advantage. Durkin, a former assistant county prosecutor and member of the Illinois General Assembly since 1995, also is battling to get his message out: The poll showed 14 percent of the respondents don't know who he is.

In the race for attorney general, state Sen. Lisa Madigan, D-Chicago, held a 41-40 lead over DuPage County State's Attorney Joseph Birkett. With nearly 20 percent of the respondents saying they were undecided and the results within the margin of error, the race may hinge on who has the bigger advertising budget.

Madigan, the daughter of House Speaker Michael Madigan, who is the chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party, has a large lead in fund raising. But, both have been criticized for accepting questionable campaign dollars.

Though ethics has become a dominant theme in this year's election, poll respondents continued to list education as their top issue. Second in priority is the economy, followed by taxes and state spending.

The honesty and integrity of a candidate was the fourth most important issue, the poll said.

The name confusion exists. But it is Jim's own doing. He has been invisible here in Illinois. He is not campaigning. So, of course voters don't have a clear idea who he is. They wonder, why is he hiding? What does he have to hide?

When a lady spills her coffee and blames McDonald's we tell her to take responsibility for her own actions. Likewise, when a politician fails, he should blame himself. It is not everybody else's fault that he is losing.

Jim Ryan has received both good and bad advice. He has taken the bad advice...namely to hide.

Why Durkin is hiding is a mystery.

In contrast, Judy Barr-Topinka is working hard for re-election as treasurer. She and her campaign workers are highly visible at events large and small. When she wins it is not because she is more moderate, or a woman, etc. It is because she earned it through hard work.

Jim Ryan got nominated because it was "his turn". He accepted the nomination because he thought it was his duty to take his turn. That is not a winning strategy.

Of course, the big problem is the Republican primary voters who nominate candidates based on whose turn it is.

Topinka is a running a good, effective, campaign, but you give her far more credit for it that she deserves. You also have to factor in the circumstances of her campaign that gives her advantages that no one else has.

Topinka's the only statewide Republican INCUMBENT to have the fortune of running for reelection to her CURRENT office this year. This automatically gives her a tremendous boost that Birkett/Cohn/Ramsdell/etc. don't have. She instantly has statewide name recognition and a proven record -- they don't. Birkett, by contrast, is extremely little known outside of DuPage and is running against someone who has a extremely famous last name: MADIGAN. Despite being outspent 3-1, he is polling dead even with her. If Birkett had Topinka's advantages, I can safely say he'd be polling as well as Topinka is-- if not better.

Jim Ryan is the other statewide incumbent, and he has to run for election for a new office after being dragged down in a huge primary challenge (Topinka ran unopposed in the primary, saving valuable campaign $$$ and resources) Jim Ryan also has the misfortunate of having the same last name as the most corrupt governor in history. Imagine how Judy would be polling if she was trying to succeed another state treasurer ("Mary Topinka") who had sold the state to Castro and had a 20% approval rating.

Then there is the opponent factor. Jesse White is a tough opponent with a proven record. Madigan's record is a joke but her daddy's power makes her a tough opponent. Ditto with Hynes. Tom Dart, meanwhile, is a token opponent. He is also the son of politician, but he is an almost completely unknown state rep. (and since I live near his southwest side district, I can tell you that the people in the state who DO know him tend to dislike him!) He's campaigning like Jim Ryan-- he didn't want the job, he WANTED to be the party nominee for A.G. ... Unfortunately for Dart, Mike Madigan insisted his little girl get that slot so Dart was leftover with the treasurer slot and asked to run. He has no background in finance -- NONE! He took it out of party loyalty, but he's a lost cause.

Bear in mind that back in 1998, Jim Ryan was facing the same circumstances that Topinka faces now (running for reelection to his current office, facing wimpy opponent, had unified support in the primary). The result was that he rolled over his "opposition" had the biggest statewide win that year. After losing the SOS slot, the party took it as a sign that A.G. Jim Ryan should be the heir apparent when the governor's position becomes open. And the rest is history.

As we all learned, Blagojevic is no Santos (the indicted criminal joke from Chicago that Jim Ryan obviated), and Topinka's status in 2006 cannot be decided by 2002. Unfortunately, if she is the bigger winner (and namely, the ONLY statewide Republican winner) this year; the Illinois GOP will do exactly that. Topinka will be named the heir apparent for Governor in 2006 and history will repeat itself.

Stragedy is only part of the winning formula. It's also about the hand you are dealt.

I agree the hand you are dealt matters. George dealt us a bad hand.

My point was that I have been to many events in 3 counties, both regulars and O'Malley types. Judy has volunteers at ALL of these events put up signs. They line up area leaders and township coordinators and give vast numbers of people specific jobs to do. Judy herself is visible at many of them.

At the 1st fundraiser for State Chair McDougal, Judy and her volunteers were highly visible. They worked the crowd and got unanimous support, including people to the right of O'Malley. They assigned specific jobs to specific people. Birkett was highly visible at the 2d one at Palos Country Club, which I did not attend so I do not know if he got specific committments for people to do specific tasks or not.

That Jim Ryan did not attend the McDougal fundraisers would have been labeled a slap in the face if it had been any other candidate. But it was not taken as a slap in the face only because everybody agreed that Jim never shows up anywhere so McDougal shouldn't take it personally.

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