Topinka's the only statewide Republican INCUMBENT to have the fortune of running for reelection to her CURRENT office this year. This automatically gives her a tremendous boost that Birkett/Cohn/Ramsdell/etc. don't have. She instantly has statewide name recognition and a proven record -- they don't. Birkett, by contrast, is extremely little known outside of DuPage and is running against someone who has a extremely famous last name: MADIGAN. Despite being outspent 3-1, he is polling dead even with her. If Birkett had Topinka's advantages, I can safely say he'd be polling as well as Topinka is-- if not better.
Jim Ryan is the other statewide incumbent, and he has to run for election for a new office after being dragged down in a huge primary challenge (Topinka ran unopposed in the primary, saving valuable campaign $$$ and resources) Jim Ryan also has the misfortunate of having the same last name as the most corrupt governor in history. Imagine how Judy would be polling if she was trying to succeed another state treasurer ("Mary Topinka") who had sold the state to Castro and had a 20% approval rating.
Then there is the opponent factor. Jesse White is a tough opponent with a proven record. Madigan's record is a joke but her daddy's power makes her a tough opponent. Ditto with Hynes. Tom Dart, meanwhile, is a token opponent. He is also the son of politician, but he is an almost completely unknown state rep. (and since I live near his southwest side district, I can tell you that the people in the state who DO know him tend to dislike him!) He's campaigning like Jim Ryan-- he didn't want the job, he WANTED to be the party nominee for A.G. ... Unfortunately for Dart, Mike Madigan insisted his little girl get that slot so Dart was leftover with the treasurer slot and asked to run. He has no background in finance -- NONE! He took it out of party loyalty, but he's a lost cause.
Bear in mind that back in 1998, Jim Ryan was facing the same circumstances that Topinka faces now (running for reelection to his current office, facing wimpy opponent, had unified support in the primary). The result was that he rolled over his "opposition" had the biggest statewide win that year. After losing the SOS slot, the party took it as a sign that A.G. Jim Ryan should be the heir apparent when the governor's position becomes open. And the rest is history.
As we all learned, Blagojevic is no Santos (the indicted criminal joke from Chicago that Jim Ryan obviated), and Topinka's status in 2006 cannot be decided by 2002. Unfortunately, if she is the bigger winner (and namely, the ONLY statewide Republican winner) this year; the Illinois GOP will do exactly that. Topinka will be named the heir apparent for Governor in 2006 and history will repeat itself.
Stragedy is only part of the winning formula. It's also about the hand you are dealt.
My point was that I have been to many events in 3 counties, both regulars and O'Malley types. Judy has volunteers at ALL of these events put up signs. They line up area leaders and township coordinators and give vast numbers of people specific jobs to do. Judy herself is visible at many of them.
At the 1st fundraiser for State Chair McDougal, Judy and her volunteers were highly visible. They worked the crowd and got unanimous support, including people to the right of O'Malley. They assigned specific jobs to specific people. Birkett was highly visible at the 2d one at Palos Country Club, which I did not attend so I do not know if he got specific committments for people to do specific tasks or not.
That Jim Ryan did not attend the McDougal fundraisers would have been labeled a slap in the face if it had been any other candidate. But it was not taken as a slap in the face only because everybody agreed that Jim never shows up anywhere so McDougal shouldn't take it personally.