Scoop: Mulvaney predicts post-impeachment landslide

Axios ^ | October 6, 2019 | Jonathan Swan

[2ndDivisionVet]

In numerous recent conversations with colleagues, including last week's senior staff meeting, White House acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has said he thinks President Trump could win 45 states in 2020 after the impeachment process — a magnitude of landslide that few if any independent pollsters would dare predict.

Between the lines: People who've heard Mulvaney make this remark say he wasn't joking or even exaggerating. He appears to genuinely believe that impeachment will have a profoundly positive effect on Trump's political fortunes, according to 3 sources who have heard Mulvaney make the 45-state prediction.

Mulvaney also believes that the longer the impeachment process drags on, the better it is, politically, for Trump, these sources added.

Mulvaney did not stipulate which 5 states he thought Trump would still lose when he made these comments, a source who heard them said.

His view appears to be based more on instinct than polling data. I have seen no polling that supports his prediction, and at this early stage, responsible polling analysts are extremely wary of predicting which party will benefit more from impeachment in 2020.

But it's possible Mulvaney is echoing the ebullience emanating from the Trump campaign. They are raising breathtaking sums online by telling supporters to give money to help Trump fight the Democrats trying to impeach him.

[lee martell]

Is he still out there giving interviews?
Hmmm.

[Nachoman]

I don’t think the left realizes that every “scandal” President Trump survives, inoculates him against future allegations, even real ones.

[matthew fuller]

"Mulvaney did not stipulate which 5 states he thought Trump would still lose "

My five- CA, MA, NY, OR, CO.

[pepsionice]

I won’t argue with the estimates. Trump should re-win all of the thirty states that he won in 2016, and a minimum of five additional states (both NM and Minnesota should be on that list).

I just don’t see Warren getting any real traction in the south at all. Her message won’t work there.

[Vendome]

“His view appears to be based more on instinct than polling data. I have seen no polling that supports his prediction”

You didn’t see the predictions of 2016 either

[DaxtonBrown]

“I just don’t see Warren getting any real traction in the south at all.”

She only appeals to academics. Blacks and Hispanics will be put off. Wall Street, say goodbye. Men will hate her.

People vote their wallets and hate disruptive change.

[dp0622]

LET’S ALL LAND GUYS!! :)

NJ is NOT going from plus 14 hillary to plus ANYTHING Trump.

Whoever thinks that don’t know NJ :)

I do.

NY and NJ are no longer in play.

We will win with a VERY NICE margin of electoral votes.

NY’s and NJ’s won’t be added to them.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

CA. is the same situation NO WAY will CA. ever be in play again FOREVER where republicans are concerned, the state is gone way past the point of ever returning to sanity!! They might as well put the border wall right up the eastern side of CA. as well, it is NOW México as well and we don’t want these illegals immigrating into the other states!!!!

[albie]

My pick for the 5 states would be CA MA VT NY Hawaii

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I don’t think Maine can be turned and WA is a lost cause also HOWEVER the homeless situation in WA. might change some voters minds but not enough!!!

[Safetgiver]

Don’t forget that WA is heavily unionized (Boeing, parts makers for Boeing, etc.)and they are PISSED that the Dems want to take away their private insurance for Medicare. I know as my brother is a retiree from Boeing. MANY union workers may not vote for Trump but they won’t vote for a Dem, either.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

It’s a Trump landslide regardless of the Fake impeachment clown show.

[wardaddy]

Trump will lose Vermont, Rhode Island, Illinois , Massachusetts, California, New York, Hawaii , D.C., Maryland and Delaware

Those ten are for sure and I think 191 electoral votes

Minnesota, New Hampshire,Virginia,Maine, Nevada, Connecticut, Colorado, New Mexico and Oregon are in play I think

[wardaddy]

Maine is only 3 points.

[wardaddy]

You’re right and I forgot to put it on my list....that’s 11 for Trump and 214 sure electoral votes for the Dem

C14

[dp0622]

Boy did you nail it.

NJ and NY too.

Gone for good.

BUT we got states that are R for good, just not as many EVs

That’s why after Trump it may be hard all over again to win

But that’s five years away. :)

[dp0622]

214?

But the other 56 will be hard to get for them right?

I THINK we will win it, but I don’t think we NEED Florida to win anymore.

I think OH is OURS, I think PA is our, VA...I hope.

I DO think he gets over 300 EVs

And I’m not worried about a landslide.

I win by 1 run in baseball counts the same as a win by 20 :)

[wardaddy]

Every state I listed as a sure thing for Dems was like 14 or more spread including Jersey which I omitted

14 points would require a nearly what ...8 point swing...a tall order

[USS Alaska]

His view appears to be based more on instinct than polling data. I have seen no polling that supports his prediction, and at this early stage, responsible polling analysts are extremely wary of predicting which party will benefit more from impeachment in 2020.

Well, since the swan has seen no polling, dat does it for me.

Trump is dun. S/OFF