Here's How Donald Trump Will Win Reelection In 2020

Good Magazine ^ | May 19, 2017 | Musa al-Gharbi, Columbia University

[2ndDivisionVet]

Most Americans don’t like Donald Trump.

Trump will most likely be reelected in 2020.

How can both of these statements be true? Here’s how: Even when people are unhappy with a state of affairs, they are usually disinclined to change it. In my area of research, the cognitive and behavioral sciences, this is known as the “default effect.”

Software and entertainment companies exploit this tendency to empower programs to collect as much data as possible from consumers, or to keep us glued to our seats for “one more episode” of a streaming show. Overall, only 5 percent of users ever change these settings, despite widespread concerns about how companies might be using collected information or manipulating people’s choices.

The default effect also powerfully shapes U.S. politics.

Four more years

Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected to four consecutive terms as president of the United States, serving from the Great Depression to World War II. To prevent future leaders from possibly holding and consolidating power indefinitely, the 22nd Amendment was passed, limiting subsequent officeholders to a maximum of two terms.

Eleven presidents have been elected since then.

Eight of these administrations won a renewed mandate: Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama.

Even the three single-term aberrations largely underscore the incumbency norm.

Had Ford won in 1976, it would have marked three consecutive terms for the GOP. If George H.W. Bush had won in 1992, it would have meant four consecutive Republican terms.

Since 1932, only once has a party held the White House for less than eight years: the administration of Democrat Jimmy Carter from 1976 to 1980.

Therefore, it’s a big deal that Trump is now the default in American politics. Simply by virtue of this, he is likely to be reelected.

Popularity is overrated

Trump won his first term, despite record low approval ratings, triumphing over the marginally less unpopular Hillary Clinton. He will probably be able to repeat this feat, if necessary.

The president continues to enjoy staunch support from the voters who put him in the White House. He has raised millions of dollars in small donations for reelection, pulling in twice as much money as Barack Obama in his first 100 days. And he’s already putting that money to use running ads in key states that trumpet his achievements and criticize political rivals.

Although most don’t like or trust Trump, polls show he seems to be meeting or exceeding Americans’ expectations so far. In fact, an ABC News/ Washington Post survey suggests that if the election had been held again in late April, Trump would have not only won the Electoral College, but the popular vote as well—despite his declining approval rating.

To further underscore this point, consider congressional reelection patterns.

Since World War II, the incumbency rate has been about 80 percent for the House of Representatives and 73 percent for the Senate. Going into the 2016 election, Congress’ approval rating was at an abysmal 15 percent. Yet their incumbency rate was actually higher than usual: 97 percent in the House and 98 percent in the Senate.

As a function of the default effect, the particular seats which happen to be open this cycle, and Republican dominance of state governments—which has allowed them to draw key congressional districts in their favor—it will be extremely difficult for Democrats to gain even a simple majority in the Senate in 2018. The House? Even less likely.

Trump … or who?

Due to the default effect, what matters most is not how the public feels about the incumbent, but how they feel about the most likely alternative.

Carter didn’t just have low approval ratings, he also had to square off against Ronald Reagan. “The Gipper” was well-known, relatable and media-savvy. Although the Washington establishment largely wrote off his platform with derisive terms like “voodoo economics,” the American public found him to be a visionary and inspirational leader—awarding him two consecutive landslide victories.

Trump’s opposition is in much worse shape. The Democratic Party has been hemorrhaging voters for the better part of a decade. Democrats are viewed as being more “out of touch” with average Americans than Trump or the Republicans. Yet key players in the Democratic National Committee still resist making substantive changes to the party’s platform and strategy. Hence, it remains unclear how Democrats will broaden their coalition, or even prevent its continued erosion.

Trump is not likely to follow in Carter’s footsteps. Other modern precedents seem more plausible.

For instance, Truman had an approval rating of around 39 percent going into the 1948 election, yet managed to beat challenger Thomas Dewey by more than 2 million in the popular vote, and 114 in the Electoral College. Then candidate Trump held raucous rallies in key states and districts, growing ever larger as the race neared its end. However, the media disregarded these displays of support because his base was not well-captured in polls. As a result, his victory came as a total surprise to virtually everyone. Sound familiar?

One could also look to Trump’s harbinger, Richard Nixon. Throughout Nixon’s tenure as president, he was loathed by the media. Temperamentally, he was paranoid, narcissistic, and often petty. Nonetheless, Nixon was reelected in 1972 by one of the largest margins in U.S. history—winning the popular vote by more than 22 percentage points and the Electoral College by a spread of over 500.

Of course, Nixon ultimately resigned under threat of impeachment. But not before he radically reshaped the Supreme Court, pushing it dramatically rightward for more than a generation. Trump is already well on his way in this regard.

And like Nixon, Trump is unlikely to be impeached until his second term, if at all.

Impeachment would require a majority in the House. Removing Trump from office would require at least a two-thirds vote in the Senate as well.

Nixon faced impeachment because, even after his landslide reelection, Democrats controlled both chambers of Congress. Clinton was impeached in 1998 by a Republican-controlled House, but was acquitted in the Senate because the GOP controlled only 55 seats.

Without massive Republican defections, Democrats will not be in a position to impeach Trump, let alone achieve the two-thirds majority required in the Senate to actually remove him from the Oval Office. The 2018 elections will not change this reality.

In other words, we can count on Trump surviving his first term—and likely winning a second.

Consider the example of George W. Bush, who, like Trump, assumed the presidency after losing the popular vote but taking the Electoral College. His tenure in office diverged wildly from his campaign commitments. He was prone to embarrassing gaffes. He was widely panned as ignorant and unqualified. Forced to rely heavily upon his ill-chosen advisors, he presided over some of the biggest foreign policy blunders in recent American history. Many of his actions in office were legally dubious as well. Yet he won reelection in 2004 by a healthy 3.5 million votes—in part because the Democrats nominated John Kerry to replace him.

Without question, Kerry was well-informed and highly qualified. He was not, however, particularly charismatic. His cautious, pragmatic approach to politics made him seem weak and indecisive compared to Bush. His long tenure in Washington exacerbated this problem, providing his opponents with plenty of “flip-flops” to highlight, suggesting he lacked firm convictions, resolve, or vision.

If Democrats think they will sweep the 2020 general election simply by nominating another “grown-up,” then they’re almost certainly going to have another losing ticket.

For Trump to be the next Jimmy Carter, it won’t be enough to count on his administration to fail. Democrats will also have to produce their own Ronald Reagan to depose him. So far, the prospects don’t look great.

[enumerated]

“The left has totally overplayed their racist, mysoginy, homophobic meme and now are in an all out war to destroy history, culture and our future. They have literally Fk’d themselves in the South, of that there can be no doubt. It’s freaking over for them.”

Great point.

By daring to speak the politically incorrect truth about there being violence on both sides, Trump has provoked a tsunami of sanctimonious condemnation from the fevered left and their attack dogs, the MSM.

His enemies believe they have branded him as a white supremacist and can now hound him out of office with it, ...that he’s done - he’s finished.

But it appears Trump has outfoxed the Democrats once again by baiting their militant fringe with the prospect of tearing down the statues of non-confederates, Jefferson and Washington. They took the bait! They want ALL of the statues torn down.

The vision of angry leftist mobs lawlessly tearing down statues of our founders and our heroes will not play well with red-blooded American patriots in rural America, who already supported Trump, but will now come out in Reaganesque droves for him.

Yes, we will continue to hear only negative things about Trump, because the militant left is loud and obnoxious, and the MSM gives them a voice far out of proportion with their actual relevance. MSM polls will show Trump’s approval at record lows - and Pocahontas easily beating him.

But when the votes get counted in 2018 and 2020, the foolish face of the left will be unmasked - the DNC and MSM will be completely gobsmacked (again) by the “ignorance” of American voters.

They will ask: How could this have happened? How can people be so misinformed? How could the polls be so wrong? Can there really be this many racist nazis in flyover country? This is not my country anymore! I’m moving to Canada (not Mexico by the way - too many poor brown people down there!)

[Vendome]

Very considerate of Liberals/Democrats to be kickstarting Donald’s campaign even earlier this time round.
If this keeps up for the next two years The Don’s an absolute certainty for a second term in office.

[LS]

Great discussion you guys.

But the wild card are the voter reg changes, which show REGARDLESS of how the districts are drawn, it might not make much difference. Rs are gaining substantially in FL, PA, IA, MN, NC and so on. Ds are declining.

By 2020, these changes could be so profound as to render both of your “geographical” and “structural” arguments irrelevant.

[PhilCollins]

The 2020 census results will be announced in the spring of 2021, so the change in congressmen and electoral votes won’t affect the 2020 presidential election.

[Vendome]

That’s exactly the point. We have to drive to 2020 to force these guys to walk in a desert for 10 years

[NFHale]

“..to force these guys to walk in a desert for 10 years...”

By Any Means Necessary.

[fieldmarshaldj]

I was talking about the 2022 reapportionment.

[BillyBoy]

>> Illinois: -1 (to 17) - Certain to be taken out of the remaining GOP seats in an already badly gerrymandered Democrat plan, thanks to a heavy (and also badly gerrymandered Dem legislature). <<

I don't suppose there's any chance we could convince the RATs to gerrymander "conservative" (he'll turn traitor after about a decade in Washington, bank on it) LaThug Jr. into Cheri Bustos's district.

[Impy]

Bustos’s seat was carried by Trump at it is, they’ll have to work to protect that b.

[BillyBoy]

That's surprising, I thought Trump did worse than Romney in Illinois and got killed in the collar counties (even DuPage County, which used to be considered GOP Inc., went to Hilderbeast)

I guess he did really well down state.

[fieldmarshaldj]

The Butcheress only carried 12 counties in IL. 7 of them were by 50% or less. Cook, Lake and Champaign(! - must be all the moonbats at Champaign-Urbana working on the HAL 9000) were her three best, and even in those last two, they were by an underwhelming 56% and 54.7%.

Remove good ole Cook and Trump wins the state 1.69 million to 1.48 million. Well over half of Hillary’s vote in all of IL came from Cook alone.

[Impy]

Check out Dave Leip’s Atlas blue for Republican!

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Checkout the swing (change in D-R margin) and you’ll see how Trump did a lot better downstate and worse in the Chi area.

Trump’s vote share 38.36% was lower than Romney’s 40.66%, and his margin of defeat was greater by a scant 0.05%. So it swing D but barely and that was the fault of the collars. DuPage was nasty, Romney nearly took it back in 2012, went huge for Shillery. Lake was a bastard, Kane was a bastard. Will saw only a slight decline, same in McHenry. Kendall (for Romney) a modest dip, nearly lost it.

He won outside of Cook (so did Romney about 50-47) I had the exact margins figured for a Cook free Illinois going back decades but that info is on my old PC, I think he was at about 49% but a bigger margin than Romney. Obama won in ‘08, Bush won twice, Clitnon won twice by only the tiniest margins.

This is a Republican state, with a giant cancerous tumor called Cook County. It’s not quite “Alabama” like PA outside of Philly and Pitt is called but this is a Republican state. I would love to have some kind of county unit system for statewide elections. Brady took nearly everything and “lost”, Rauner took EVERYTHING but Cook and still it was close enough for Quinn to be a sore loser for a couple days.

The counties DT picked up were mostly in Bustos’s district (as Romney already took back most of the counties that Obama had no business winning in 2008). 46.7 Clinton 47.4 Trump 57.6 Obama 40.6 Romney, big swing. He did better than Bush 2004 in that area of the state. Trump managed to carry Whiteside county which was strongly for Obama in 2012 and hadn’t gone GOP since ‘88. I don’t know what Whiteside’s problem has been. He also won Knox (college town there, my mom and John Podesta were students), last went GOP in 1984! His margin of defeat in Rock Island was cut to 8 points, smallest since ‘84 though Bush ‘04 got a slightly higher vote share while losing by 14.6. Rock Island State Senate seat was picked up by GOP in 2014 (only pickup in either chamber) and Brady and Rauner both carried Rock Island. If that seat wasn’t mandered 6 ways from Sunday, Bustos is GONE baby gone. We need to recruit someone to run for that sucker.

Trump carried Winnebago on election night, late counting of provisional ballots in Rockford flipped it to Hillary.

Elsewhere, Trump carried little Alexander county for the first time since ‘72. He won Madison with 54% and by 15 points, Romney squeaked out a win there by little over a point, hadn’t gone GOP before that since ‘84. He lost St. Clair by less than 6 points.

[BillyBoy]

The huge swing of the traditionally Republican collar counties to the RATs in 2016 is what's shocking to me.

DuPage County was ALWAYS reliably Republican and a big "counter vote" to Cook, even when the rest of the state went RAT. Due to nonstop Obama-is-the-messiah propaganda and Obama having the advantage as the sitting Senator from Illinois, he managed to win DuPage over McCain in 2008. Obama got 54% and McCain got 44%. At the time, a lot of DuPage Republicans swore up and down that the numbers were fixed and there was NO WAY Obama did so well in DuPage.

8 years later in 2016, Hilderbeast (who is NOT an incumbent politician hold office in Illinois and was nowhere NEAR as "popular" as Obama was in 2016 and even a lot of Illinois RATs were sick of her) won DuPage handily and crushed Trump 54%-38% in DuPage. I predicted Hilderbeast would win statewide easily, I DID NOT predict she'd win DuPage easily. Pretty much every county office there is held by a Republican, the national equivalent would be Hilderbeast winning Alabama by 10 points or something. Look at Naperville Township, that's pretty much as GOP as it gets for a big populated area of Illinois (lots of conservative young families living out there). Hilderbeast beat Trump 2-to-1 there.

Lake County was just as bad, it was about 60%-Obama, 40%-McCain during the RAT high water mark of 2008, after nonstop Obama-is-the-messiah love fests in Illinois. Contrast that to 2016, and the far LESS popular Hilderbeast beat Trump by nearly a 20-point margin there, he barely mustered 36% in Lake. Go back to the early 2000's, and both Al Gore AND John Kerry failed to beat Bush in Lake County.

I sincerely hope that the collar counties love for Hilderbeast is a one-time fluke and not some future pattern for statewide elections. I'd hate to see the likes of J.D. Prickler's "best numbers" coming from "Republican" DuPage next year. The collars are big population centers of the state and if we lose them, we can forget about winning statewide. We pretty much need all five of 'em to offset the RATs carrying Crook easily.

[Impy]

Repost in proper thread

The vote is always fixed in Illinois, I’m sure Romney actually carried DuPage. But Obama’s margin in 2008 was too large for him not to actually have carried it.

Kirk didn’t win DuPage or Lake either. He would have if he wasn’t getting eaten alive. These counties are trending rat, but Republcians in competetive races still win them. Munger won them, but her margins were not impressive, less than 5 points in Lake, 11 in DuPage. 3 in Will (which trended GOP in the POTUS race). We need to make some recovery in these White collar burbs. If Trump can do that nationwide and hold his blue collar gains, he’s reelected.

[BillyBoy]

>> Kirk didn’t win DuPage or Lake either. He would have if he wasn’t getting eaten alive. <<

Heh. You're probably right (Kirk would have won Lake & DuPage if he hadn't inflicted massive damage on himself a week before the election). Still, I enjoy the irony of Kirk losing most of "his" old Congressional district in Lake Co. (well, I know half of it was Melissa Bean's district, but still), given how he and his followers spent years sneering about he was the only kind of "electable" Republican who could "win" the far north suburbs.

Fun fact: I used to argue with "only social moderates can WIN that area" Kirk zombies and point out that both Dan Rutherford and Tony Percicia won Kirk's district handily while running as unabashedly pro-life and pro-gun. Pointing out inconvenient facts like that would quickly make Kirk cheerleaders immediately run away.

[Vendome]

So, you don't know if Trump is going to run in 2020?

Well, let’s do a little math to see how this plays out and I totally believe he will.

The left has totally overplayed their racist, misogyny, homophobic meme and now are in an all out war to destroy history, culture and our future

They have literally Fk'd themselves in the South, of that there can be no doubt. It's freaking over for them.

Coal Country? Ditto

I'm sure Trump and the administration wasn't thinking things would be so bad that even "so called" republicans would lay down with dirty dogs and come up with fleas

Make America Great Again. A new direction for the rest of the century.

Deliver an even bigger majority in 2018 to set up redistricting in 2020.

Here are some real math numbers.

1st. 2018 is not going to end well for them. They have 25 seats up, with 11 vulnerable. Compare that to the Republicans who have only seats up with merely 2 vulnerable.

Let’s just say losing 30% cor the Dems would be a friggin disaster but, not as bad as 2020....more later.

I think Trump will relish that victory but, it only gets better on matters of substance from there.

2nd. SCOTUS...3 more turns at bat over the next 8 years.

3rd. Federal Judges. Over the next 7.5 years we will realign more than 1/2 or more than 700 Federal Judges and may even break up pesky courts like the 9th.

Hell, we could replace a few annoying judges in Hawaii.

4th. The Wall.

Whomp!

5th. Obamacare will be repealed. “OH NOES!”

6th. Lower Capital gains tax and offer enticing tax advantages to repatriate some of the $3 Trillion offshore and put that capital to work investing in factories and new business ideas. This will invigorate the economy.

Boom! Shams Laka...Boom! Oh, the economy this quarter is on track to out perform any year or quarter than the last guy could must.

In fact, this quarter will out perform Barack’s best quarter by nearly double at 3.7%! “Oooh RahhH!”

7th. 2020. Dems have 11 Senate seats up, compared to 22 for Republicans.

We probably have a net gain of 3 for the Senate.

All 435 seats in Congress are up but, if we can get the issues of healthcare coverage, The economy and the wall in progress as well at least SCOTUS we will probably have an increase in the house as well(I am still studying that battlefield and don’t have numbers yet)

So why all the fighting from the Dems and these charges which are no more than vapor?

Well, their product sucks. Its a stew of hate, Socialism/Marxist utopian ideals and more segregation of society by invented classes of aggrieved people.

But, the real kicker is this about Reapportionment. Can you say Entropy?

8. Yeah that’s right. With more wins under the belt of the Republicans we will have a larger swath of land to carve up because the census will take place, which the predicate for redistricting and guess who wins that fight no matter what?

Republicans and we get an increase in key states we will continue to win. Alabama, Georgia and Florida will gain 1 more representative in the house, who will likely be a Republican

However, Texas will gain 3 or 4 representatives locking up the south for Republicans over the next decade.

So, in 2020 we will gain further majorities in the house and senate, redistrict in our favor, we will be in the middle of an economy that out performs all other nations, 2 SCOTUS or more will be seated in our favor, 300-400 Federal judges are seated Obamacare/Check, Tax Policy/Check, The Wall/Check, Fair Trade/Check, ISIS Dead/Check, Russia petitions for statehood (jus kee dean), Trump Re-elected / Yuge Check.

And the dems wander the wilderness for 10 years because they stand zero chance of doing anything significant after 2020.

You see, as of June 2017 the DNC is not only running an insane $3.5 million dollars in debt but, their fundraising is at the lowest in 14 years.

Who has momentum then and who is winning? Stupet fkrs...

And they have no candidate for 2020 as yet but, their current financial or intellectual leadership.

Oh, and that Trump meme “ He’s going to step down!” Uhmmm...Boo Chit.

You are intellectually Bankrupt as the demoncrats:

He’s already fund-raising for his 2020 PAC with $12,000,000 cash on hand.

That’s right. After disbursements he’s got $12 million Cash!. That’s debt free money. Oh, and the RNC is cash flow positive with $44,000,000 in the bank. I ask you, at this point, who is going to win?

Conclusion:

Democrats are so broke they can’t pay attention and have zero money to support any war but a Cheap azz Chinese knockoff of an intellect.

So, get use to Donald Trump being president for 8 years.

Posting HTML

[Impy]

Comparing the Senate and POTUS races in IL are interesting, the margin of victory for the rats was not very different

15.08% margin Suckworth

16.89% margin for Clinton

39.78% Kirk

38.36% Trump

We know Kirk did better in the collars and Cook, and a little in Rockford

Let’s examine the rest of the state, Suckworth carried several Trump Counties

Madison, over 50% Suckworth, 54% Trump

Alexander, 55.5% for Suckworth, Trump 53%

Calhoun, 51% Suckworth, almost 67% Trump!!! Woah, what disparity! It had been 55.6% Romney and 51.3% Kirk in 2010. in 2016 Senate it was similar to margin Turban carried it by in 2014

Gallatin, ancestrally rat, Bush 2004 first R to win it since 1972, Obama in 08 then Romney and Trump, this is the county that voted against Jim Edgar in 1994. 71.74% Trump, Suckworth carried it 49-47. Kirk carried in in 2010 and Chuck Percy in ‘72 (every county), 1942 and 1920 are the only other times it went GOP for Senate. Brady and Rauner only R Gov candidates to win it since 1920.

Pulaski County, 61% Trump, 52% Suckworth

Knox County, narrow win for Trump and for Suckworth

McDonough: 51.8% Trump, Suckworth by 2.6 points.

St. Clair which Trump lost by less than 6, Kirk lost by almost 19.

Maybe later I’ll map a county map of which did better in which county. I’ve made one already for Florida, Trump/Rubio.