Posted on 09/16/2016 11:23:09 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Think your one vote doesn't really matter? According to experts, it will — a lot.
Hey Pennsylvania voters: you're important. Like, really important.
It's no secret Pennsylvania is an extremely-coveted battleground state for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump this fall. But some experts are now predicting the entire 2016 presidential election could essentially boil down to how we vote here in the Keystone State.
Is that enough pressure for you? (By the way, the deadline to register to vote is Oct. 11.)
In a piece published Friday by the New York Times, expert David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research who operates PredictWise, says his research shows Pennsylvania looks to be the most likely state to tip the election.
Here's how Rothschild explains it, according to the New York Times:
"Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. I use the probability of each state going for Clinton or Trump, then I mix that with a correlation matrix that defines the relationships between the states. And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election. Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election."
Rothschild says he'll be looking closely at polling in Pennsylvania over the coming weeks as an indicator of the election outcome. In recent weeks, Trump has gained some ground on Clinton in other swing states, such as Flordia and Ohio. The Democrat is holding onto a lead in Pennsylvania, however.
The RealClearPolitics.com polling average in Pennsylvania shows Clinton with a six-point lead over her opponent. The most recent poll, conducted by Quinnipiac between Aug. 29 and Sept. 7, shows Clinton with a five-point lead.
However, that's down from a double-digit lead she held over Trump in a Franklin and Marshall College poll taken between July 29 and Aug. 1.
For weeks, pundits and political experts have been keeping a watchful eye on Pennsylvania, specifically the Philadelphia suburbs. In a report last month, the Times called the Philadelphia suburbs, a "bellwether" in this year's election.
That piece included input from several Bucks County voters, including one who said Trump is "talking about the issues everyone is pussyfooting around."
The candidates and surrogates have been pervasive in Pennsylvania, with both campaigns making the Keystone State a frequent stop. Just this week, Donald Trump came to the Philadelphia suburbs and President Barack Obama, campaigning for Clinton, was in Philadelphia.
Trump's running mate, Mike Pence, was also in Pennsylvania this week, holding a rally at Kenworth of Pennsylvania, just outside of Scranton.
Election Day is Nov. 8.
Nope.
Trump won’t need it.
There are 1 million deer hunters in PA.They better all TRUMP the Hildabeast!
Need bikers for Trump at every location they show up at!
Here's a REALLY, REALLY GOOD WAY TO LOSE PA:
Keep pretending that voter fraud in Philly is the problem.
It isn't. And people on FR who keep posting this crap are a big reason we keep losing Pennsylvania.
First, "110%-115%" Dem voting doesn't happen there, and never has. There are precincts at 115% registration. That's not uncommon in any large city and it happens simply because the rolls are not purged scrupulously enough. It doesn't mean 115% actually show up to vote.
Second, have any of you ever been a partisan poll watcher, elected Clerk of Elections or Judge of Elections? Because I've been all three, and the probability of cheating to the tune of 10 to 15% is SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE. One percent? Yes. And that does happen in Philly (and St. Louis, and Minneapolis, and Denver, and Dade County and in every other big city in a battleground state. And this year, that probably means cheating in Detroit and Milwaukee as well.) But PA hasn't been lost by 1% of Philly. Ever. Get it? Never.
We've lost PA in the last two presidential races for two reasons, and neither has anything to do with fraud. So stop peddling that nonsense. 1) We've lost the very heavily populated counties around Philadelphia. These are old, rich, (nominally) Republican counties. The problem is that these are Christie Todd Whitman Republicans. Trump MUST do better there. 2) We've lost the coal country. Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Lackawanna, Luzerne, and Wyoming Counties. That is heavily Catholic territory, and many of the people there are Italian Catholics (who lately have been voting Republican nationwide) and other white ethnic minorities. People need to campaign up there stressing both the Democrat War on Coal and friendliness to traditional values. There is absolutely NO REASON why we lost that territory in the last several outings.
But by all means, please keep pretending it's fraud in Philadelphia if that makes you feel better.
I think what it is going to boil down to is...how in the heck are we going to clean up all the exploded head goo across the nation?
Trump has a made a point of getting the “COAL” vote in West VA, why wouldn’t that same approach work in PA? The wealthy Philly ‘burbs are soccer mom territory; Trump has emphasized the safety issue,a/k/a Law and order in the face of both the Terror attacks and minority lawlessnes. What else appeals to soccer moms?
Finally you dead wrong on voter fraud. There is proven rampant fraud in the inner cities, especially Philly. Turnout of 100%, plus 100% of that turn out voting for only one candidate, has certainly been shown.
Nobody really knows the number. One million is on the low side, and not everyone hunts deer. There are lots of small game and wild turkey hunters who do not.
According to the US Fish and Wildlife Service, in 2015 the number of paid resident licenses was ~960,000, but the total number of permits, licenses and stamps issued was 2.6 million. That includes about 120K non-residents. It also includes about 130K bow hunters. But we should keep in mind that the RKBA includes bows, crossbows, front loaders and knives, and is not just about what most people think of as guns.
Trump should have commercials specifically targeted at PA that have Illary describing gun-grabbing in her own words. Such video exists. We should also see her repeated, rabid support of the so-called "assault weapons ban," which includes the AR-15, probably the most popular long gun in PA.
Will Trump get PA... Yep... Will he need it to win? Nope...
It's well documented that the Black vote is typically 92-93% for Democrats in Presidential years. The 7% we get, we get from intact families with real, married, parents. Guess what percentage of families like that exist in central Philadelphia? So the idea that we would not even get the 7% we get nationwide in those hellholes is not in the least surprising.
Over 100% of eligibles? If I'm "dead wrong" please find me an instance. I'd love to see it.
Agree 100%. Fraud happens at a very small level. We lost PA for the reasons you gave. The Axiom Strategies battleground poll shows him up 17 in Luzerne and 8 in New ... (forgot the new County they added).
Pennsylvania has 1 million more democrats registered than republicans and there are about 1 million independents. Estimating Trump will need 12-25% of democrats. Is that possible?
What do you bet, even now, the DNC is paying unemployed debris from New York, Massachusetts and DC to move to Pennsylvania just so they can register to vote and cast for Hillary? Why do you think they fundraise millions from wealthy donors?
That is not good. I can see a mass registration of the dead and imaginary in Philadelphia right now. The voting rates in those precincts will probably reach 120% this time.
When you do, you will discover that I wrote the over 100% OF REGISTRATIONS in a precinct IS LIKELY, because voter rolls are not purged scrupulously enough. That doesn't mean they all show up to vote, or vote by absentee ballot.
Now, when you send me an example of a precinct or voting district where 10-15% over-voting has ACTUALLY happened, please get back to me.
See #24.
It seems everything is fine. Pa will decide it and H is comfortably ahead. Keep believin’ that slimes.
I see a lot of Democrats staying home because they don’t like either candidate. If that occurs is may be hard to put a lot of imaginary votes in any where in the country.
I just saw on TV that from Romney’s 198 Electoral Votes, TRUMP just needs Iowa Nevada Maine Ohio North Carolina & Florida to get to 270!!!???
He doesn’t need VA or NH? This is very very doable!!!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.