Could Donald Trump win New York in November?

Buoyed by an uptick in national polling, Donald Trump is expected on Wednesday to outline the reasons he still thinks he can win heavily Democratic New York as he accepts the small but influential Conservative Party’s nomination for president.

Trump, who will deliver an evening address as the Conservatives wind up their convention at the Marriott Marquis in Times Square, “thinks he can win New York, as difficult as that may seem to people out there, if the stars align correctly,’’ a senior Trump campaign operative told The Post.

“New York means a lot to Mr. Trump and he has not by any means given up on the state,’’ the operative said.

Longtime Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long told The Post, “I know how difficult it would be to win this state,” but he added Trump does have a shot.

“Trump’s numbers upstate are pretty good, and they’re pretty good on Long Island, so I don’t think it’s impossible that he could take New York. And I don’t see any real enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton out there, and that’s an indicator,’’ Long said....

No he doesn’t need it to win,but Hillary has path without it.

I was hoping Trump would be doing better in NY than he has been... I know he will outperform his polling no doubt but by 20+ points? Doubtful.

I don’t know what if anything is going on in the ground game in NY, I figure Trump and surrogates would be running hard there, so maybe they are and it’s just not making news outside the city. Hillary is a corrupt carpet bagger part of the system the keeps the wealthy wealthy and the average folks down... The corruption on Wall Street etc...

Debated may help him break open there but honestly if he’s 20 points down he won’t outperform polling by that much. Single digits certainly could mean upset 20-30? No.. He need to move that needle and shocked that he hasn’t.

Hillary has ZERO enthusiasm anywhere... That is blindingly obvious... D turnout will be down nationally as a result, the question is will it be down enough? Nationally I think there is little doubt Trump wins this solidly.. However in individual states, like a NY will D turnout on NYC be down so much that Trump can carry it with the large enthusiasm he has in the rest of the state?

Time will tell, if polling gets into single digits then Trump can take it but at 20 to 30 points. That’s likely not going to happen.

“...Albany county ... more than 40%...”

Albany county itself would be tough to see 40% plus pro Trump - because of the many government workers - they are state workers but tend to be democrats and for big government.

I think that the blue collar voters in the conservative NYC outer boroughs will break for Trump and the state will go Trump.

Well, yes, if by “long ago” you mean 2008.

According to the formula, GWB was supposed to be red both times (once as challenging party and once as incumbant party). McCain should have been blue as incumbant, and Romney should have been blue as challenger.

If you look at the history of what happened, I don’t think the abandonment of the alternating convention was deliberate on the part of the media or democrat party, nor was it a matter of republicans being too stupid to fight back. It was really quite understandable:

What happened was that before 2000, the formula had coincidentally resulted in republicans being blue for every race except George Bush senior’s first race. Ford, Reagan (twice), Bush (second race) and Dole were all blue on the map, so Republicans (like me) were raised thinking Republicans were always blue (I remember thinking it was a mistake when Bush’s 1st race had Republicans red on the map).

Then the Bush/Gore electoral college squeaker had the entire nation preoccupied with maps and the terms “red state” and “blue state” were born. The formula called for red to switch from the challenging party in 2000 (republican) to the incumbant party in 2004 (republican), which reinforced the new red state blue state meme, so that it became set in stone that red equals republican. There were probably only a few old media codgers that even knew about the formula and it was forgotten. I don’t like it, but I can sort of see how it happened.

Even if someone wanted to reassert the red blue formula, 2016 wouldn’t be the year to do it, because Trump would have been red anyway, as the challenger. Same in 2024, when red switches to the incumbant, also Trump!

Maybe in 2024, when the incumbant republican (Pence) equals blue, we can reestablish the formula, but I’m hoping Trump will have taught republicans how to focus on the important things!

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