Posted on 04/22/2016 2:32:50 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The math is certain, it's time to move on to fighting Hillary.
The current real numbers are just fine, Trump was expected to win New York, optimistic news I had received not with standing. Yes Trump got 90 delegates. Yes he did well. Yes Kasich got 5 delegates, his first in how long? Yes yes and yes. And No I am not even bothered.
Real Numbers: Cruz 696 Delegates to Trumps 815 Delegates.
Whats left now?
California 172 Indiana 57 New Jersey 51 Washington 44 Maryland 38 Nebraska 36 West Virginia 34 South Dakota 29 Connecticut 28 Oregon 28 Montana 27 New Mexico 24 Rhode Island 19 Pennsylvania 17 +54
Trump needs to get 422 delegates, out of that list.
He loses Montana in full, the 54 in Pennsylvania are gone, Oregon is a wipe for him (he gets 3-6), Washington is already soured to him (maybe 4-6 there), Indiana is looking like Ted Cruz, S. Dakota is Ted Cruz, no one will give Nebraska to Trump, New Mexico is unlikely Trump… These “losses” (we will leave the gains in play) add up to 283 of 658, leaving 337 delegates left for Trump to try to win. Look he ain’t taking all of California either, even if he gets 120 out of there he loses 52 more, which means he comes up short by 137 missing delegates.
Yes you read that correct, even if we tilt California for Trump he cannot win, he misses by 137 delegates. Even if he wins three small States, or Indiana and a medium State, he comes up missing by far too much.
Mathematically Trump has been out for a while, it is a Contested Convention.
In fact it is worse than that for Donald Trump because he messed up in West Virginia and automatically loses 3 delegates minimum there, he started his campaign office in California so late that a number of us pundits think he cannot get delegates for all the Congressional Districts there, and Rhode Island is a proportional election.
Trump cannot get enough delegates from the remaining States even if he picks up 2 major surprise wins.
Ted Cruz has seen an additional bunch of Delegates arrive with his securing S. Carolina for sure (while not fully voted yet you can take this to the bank), Nebraska voted their delegates for Cruz, and Indiana is a done deal according to Party Insiders. Those 54 in Pennsylvania are rumored to be in contention, but not for Trump. Apparently Kasich is making a big play there. However it still hurts Trump significantly, leaving him no way to continue on. One of the most surprising developments was Florida and New Jersey. Rubio had his team walk over everyone in Florida, those 99 delegates are his. In New Jersey Christie is actually strong-arming the leadership in a potentially illegal manner, and is securing almost all of the slates there. Yes you read those right, they secured their home States and not for Trump.
However I reiterate, Trump has already lost the challenge to get to 1237 delegates. There is NO CHANCE OF A TRUMP NOMINATION.
Current Pledged Delegates for Cruz is estimated by me to be at 865 delegates.
Where does Ted Cruz secure the remaining delegates? He needs 372 to win the convention on 2nd or 3rd ticket (vote): Oregon 28 Oklahoma 43 California (projected) 100 South Dakota 29 Pennsylvania (Possible Kasich) 54 Arkansas 40 Kansas 40 Kentucky 46 Montana 27
The list goes on. We have only really gotten a bit over half way in the actual positions. Ted Cruz is the champion here, no other is coming close currently. There is well in excess of 450 delegates I deem “likely” to “Guaranteed” for Ted Cruz. Due to the machinations of Kasich, Rubio, and Christie the establishment has secured 235 delegates already.
This means when Ted Cruz gets 137 more delegates to pledge to him that Trump is mathematically out there as well without offering one of them (Not Rubio) the Vice Presidency, and he is 222 delegates being pledged for Ted Cruz to be guaranteed mathematically eliminated in a contested convention.
The odds of Trump getting the nomination is now under 1% in my view.
Yes that statement is correct. Trump cannot turn the tide in enough States, his efforts in New Mexico are also showing lagging (he had to strong arm them to extend the time he needs to search for people to be potential delegates) and he cannot win so many pledges in an obvious hostile venue in the remaining time. Trump is done.
So, here I am, the first of the major and minor Statisticians, I am calling the election formally for Ted Cruz. Yes this is my formal announcement. I was going to wait until April 27th, but the nature of the States has been provided to me by various sources, and I am confident that even with two major upsets that Trump is not going to win.
Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.
Laz, I think that train has left the station...
I think Trump will shake it off.
LOL. Yes, and to honest, he’s a commentator like 1,000 others who gets a Golden Sacks sponsored paycheck to destroy Trump. In a few more months his writing gig will end and you’ll see him working the fresh produce isles of your local grocery store.
Dead State?
“I know the difference between a man and a woman.”
LOL, on the contrary, your remarks quite obviously indicate you do not know the differences between a man and a woman, and you would consequently find yourself in a ticklish dilemma when finally being forced to make a determination with your blue gloved hands and smart looking TSA uniform. Yes, I can see it now as you are confronted with a choice you’d rather not make.
“Or should it be the rule that people should use whichever room they like, regardless of biology?”
That’s the problem with your comments, you flunked Human biology.
“But don’t tell me that Trump will stand up for America and everything that is important when he can’t even stand up to the Bathroom Bullies.”
ROFLMAO, I’d hate to see what Cruz “stood up” for, especially after those published reports of Cruz crossdressing as a girl to get into the girls’ dorms to play Peeping Tom and hanging around in the dorm hallway around the young women in a smoking jacket robe. Imagine the optics of those encounters replayed on the campaign trail tomorrow!
I like this part....
“Congratulations Ted Cruz for winning the Republican Nomination for President.”
But he forgot to add...”and a GUARANTEED loser in November! Hello President Hillary Clinton!”
Those 3 issues represent the priorities we seek. Trump brings a credible strength to the task.
That I can tell you.
Somehow we had Mens and Ladies Rooms for hundreds of years without having any blue gloved TSA agents checking genitals.
Cruz thinks that the traditional approach was perfectly cromulent. 99.97% of the population knows where to go, and when you have a man in the Women's Room, you tell him to get the hell out. If he absolutely refuses, you all the cops. It has been this way all along.
Trump thinks the traditional approach should be tossed out because it is too much trouble to deal with the strife and economic hardship being dished out by the Bathroom Bullies. He thinks that if you have a man in the Women's Room, you should not be able to tell him to get the hell out. He says that if the man refuses to leave, you have no recourse to call the cops, because no rule would have broken.
Trump does not stop to consider why there are separate bathrooms. He does not think about why there is a rule that men can't be in the Womens Room. It is causing strife and economic hardship, and it is a gotcha question, so he'll just toss all that aside. It is Chesterton's Fence, and Trump did not take the time to understand what he was throwing away before throwing it away.
This is a penny-ante issue. But the way Trump deals with it is indicative of his general approach. He does not understand the principle behind Chesterton's Fence, because he does not have an understanding of conservatism.
Excerpted from The Thing - GK Chesterton - 1929
"In the matter of reforming things, as distinct from deforming them, there is one plain and simple principle; a principle which will probably be called a paradox. There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it."
Oh, that really makes sense.
Some these people are seriously-deluded.
Some of them are obviously drawing a paycheck.
Absolutely. You can see them here on this thread.
I hope for their sake they're demanding a higher rate these days; it's getting progressively harder to defend Cruz.
It’s so insane it can only be cash, I say, in the case of one in particular.
Nobody spams like that for free. I never believed CW did it for free. Putting yourself under that much stress with ridiculous posts and arguments. Unless something changed, last she posted was late March. That cannot be good for your health.
Hehe. I think some may be paid by wealthy Cruz supporters individually, or from PAC’s or SuperPac’.
I’ve said I would work for Trump, BUT if I were to post anything, it would a) have to have JimRob’s approval first and b) have to be disclosed with each thread started.
I bit my tongue for a long time on one (for a particular reason no one knows but myself and another FReeper) but finally had enough of him going after a couple folks, pretending he didn’t know better.
The collapse of social morals is the fault of the weakness of Christianity itself in the nation, which has lost the respect of the unbelievers because those who actually live as Christians are very few.
No President can change that.
“The only people talking about blue gloved TSA agents are Trump supporters.”
There you go again with yet another lie. I am not a Trump supporter. I used the blue gloved TSA agent scenario as a parody to highlight the ridiculous absurdity of what you are arguing must be enforced when taken to its logical and silly conclusion. What you are proposing must be done by Trump or any other candidate but Cruz is just as ridiculous and irrational as inviting registered sex offenders, male and female, into the gender segregated rest rooms. Just because you want to smear any opponent of Cruz, you are willing to go far beyond common decency and veer into irrational bigotry divorced from the realities of human biology.
“Somehow we had Mens and Ladies Rooms for hundreds of years without having any blue gloved TSA agents checking genitals.”
We also had these same Men’s and Women’s toilets being used during these same time periods by Human beings who did not conform to the genitalia requirements you are irrationally demanding as a qualification for entry and usage of those facilities. The problem here is with your going beyond the boundaries of common sense and safety to propose draconian and unenforceable legal actions that are contrary to Human biology and centuries of customary practices.
“Cruz thinks that the traditional approach was perfectly cromulent. 99.97% of the population knows where to go, and when you have a man in the Women’s Room, you tell him to get the hell out. If he absolutely refuses, you all the cops. It has been this way all along.”
That’s just your bigoted imagination, demonstrating further you are clueless and willfully ignorant when it comes to understanding the differences between what defines a man and a woman.
“Trump thinks the traditional approach should be tossed out because it is too much trouble to deal with the strife and economic hardship being dished out by the Bathroom Bullies. He thinks that if you have a man in the Women’s Room, you should not be able to tell him to get the hell out. He says that if the man refuses to leave, you have no recourse to call the cops, because no rule would have broken.”
Try trotting out the exact quotation where Trump actually said those very words.
“Trump does not stop to consider why there are separate bathrooms. He does not think about why there is a rule that men can’t be in the Womens Room. It is causing strife and economic hardship, and it is a gotcha question, so he’ll just toss all that aside. It is Chesterton’s Fence, and Trump did not take the time to understand what he was throwing away before throwing it away.”
Inventing such lies about what Trump or someone else has allegedly said is utterly destroying your credibility and helps to reinforce the public image of Ted Cruz actually being Lyin’ Ted Cruz. The more you engage in this kind of dishonest rhetoric, the more voters you drive away from Ted Cruz.
“This is a penny-ante issue. But the way Trump deals with it is indicative of his general approach. He does not understand the principle behind Chesterton’s Fence, because he does not have an understanding of conservatism.”
Based on your comments it appears you haven’t the least idea what does and does not constitute conservatism. You fail to acknowledge how you are arguing for a change that is as irrational, dramatic, and contrary to Human physiology as the change being demanded by the LGBT activists. That kind of demand for change is just as much the antithesis of conservatism as the LGBT demand for change.
Awwww, nanny-nanny-boo-boo Tedlim...
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