Tell me just one thing Donald Trump has done to protect the Bill of Rights.
Posted on 04/15/2016 10:42:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Via Red State, not a huge deal but worth flagging in case there’s another poll this weekend showing his numbers dipping a bit in New York on the eve of the primary. That would suggest a trend, and that would be a big deal given what’s at stake. To be clear: Trump’s going to romp in NY on Tuesday night, winning by 25 points or better, and will pick up something like 75 delegates even in a worst-case scenario. But since his path to 1,237 is so difficult, it matters a lot whether he ends up with 75 in New York or 95, which is what he’d get if he sweeps the state. Every delegate he leaves on the table now will have to be made up for later; finishing with 75 in New York means he’ll likely need to find another 10-20 somewhere in California on June 7th, where he won’t have home-field advantage.
The reason this poll is significant (apart from the enormous 14,000-person sample size) is that 50 percent is a magic number in New York. If you hit 50 statewide, you get all 11 of the state’s at-large delegates. If you don’t, the second-place finisher gets some of them proportionally. More importantly, if you hit 50 percent in a congressional district, you get all three of that district’s delegates. If you don’t, you get two delegates and the second-place finisher gets one. There are 27 congressional districts, meaning that the difference between Trump hitting 49 percent in every district and hitting 50 there is … 27 delegates. That’s a big haul and potentially crucial to his ability to reach 1,237. (To put it in perspective, Cruz’s prize for sweeping Colorado’s delegate elections was 37 delegates.) So when a poll drops showing him at 49 percent statewide, we sit up and pay attention. The margins matter on Tuesday night. A lot.
If we direct our attention to the figure above, we can see that statewide he is also polling at 49%, so whether he’s able to take the statewide delegates by “winner-take-all” rules outright is up in the air. The even better news for Trump is that he’s hitting the 50% threshold in 11/27 districts and is within three percentage points of six more (see figure below). Just by keeping 50% in those 11 districts and a plurality in the others, Trump would get 65 delegates…
Further, if we look at shifts between the opinion shares we observed this week (4.11-4.13) and compare them to our last poll (3.22-3.24), we don’t see monumental moves against Trump across numerous districts (see figure below). We do note a generally favorable Kasich trend of between 2 and 6 points in most districts. While this is generally good, these shifts are unlikely to change the order of results, and thus unlikely to shift all-important delegate totals on Election Day. In other words, while we believe Kasich appears to be making some progress in many districts, it is not enough to change delegate totals significantly.
If Trump were to finish below 50 percent in 16 districts, that’s 16 delegates going to Kasich or Cruz (assuming the second-place finisher gets at least 20 percent of the vote, which seems inevitable in a three-way race). That’s … not a great outcome for Trump. If he also finishes below 50 statewide, that would cost him another four delegates by Phil Kerpen’s estimation. The last survey by this pollster, Optimus, taken three weeks ago had him winning 15 of New York’s 27 districts with an outright majority, meaning that he’s actually slipped a bit this month. A few days ago, Nate Silver published a state-by-state roadmap to the rest of the primaries and estimated that Trump needs 91 delegates from New York to stay on the path to 1,237. Silver’s more conservative projections of how he might do there put him in the low 80s. Optimus’s new data has him in the mid 70s. If there’s such a thing as having a “bad night” when you win a big state primary by crushing your opponents, that’s what it would look like.
But look: How likely is it, realistically, that Trump’s going to fall short in New York on Tuesday? Optimus found 14 percent still undecided in this poll. Among that 14 percent, 17 percent are already leaning Trump — more than are leaning Kasich or Cruz — and another 59 percent are still making up their minds. There’s every reason to think the bulk of them will end up tilting towards the native son who’s on TV 24/7. His average in NY at RCP over the last few weeks is 53.4 percent, with one recent poll putting him at 56 percent and another placing him at 60(!). There’s every reason to think he’ll crack 50 statewide and plenty of reason, I think, to believe that he’ll easily pull 50 in a majority of New York’s districts. If we’re being real, there are probably eight to 10 districts where there’s some suspense about the outcome, and the only suspense is whether Trump will win them with a plurality or majority. If his realistic worst-case scenario is, say, 88 delegates, then he’s basically still where he needs to be to clinch.
Here’s video of Ted Cruz speaking last night at the New York City GOP gala and finding himself roundly ignored, presumably because of his crack months ago about “New York values.” Trump can stand onstage at a national debate and smirkingly assure the country that he’ll issue illegal orders to the military and still be applauded by his local GOP, but God forbid you insult their parochial community pride.
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
Did I say I didn’t enjoy reading his posts? It’s where I catch up on the Cruz PR. No gun necessary, except maybe to keep me away - they are wonderful places where Trump supporters gather in fellowship and celebration of America. 2nd’s posts have become an institution for we ceilinged and peaked Trump candidacy supporters. Without these threads, we’d have no place to gather and discuss the day’s progress.
>With Cruz we get the Bill of Rights fiercely defended.**
** Exceptions include BLM rioting against free speech, due proccess for Trump’s campaign manager, and the right to vote for your presidental canidate in some states.
Ted Cruz also reserves the right to revoke any Consutuional right that may impeded his will to power.
Cruz plays like he is a Christian. He has the practiced 'code words' down pat... But in reality Cruz is a Christian in name only... What he did to Ben Carson in Iowa shows the depth of his Christianity... And that stunt he pulled in South Carolina, reenacting Gideon. Culling out 300 preachers for hire to bring him the victory... Guess what, Cruz's army of 300 did not know what gave Gideon's army the victory. T.R.U.M.P.E.T.S. (snicker)
It’s really odd here in upstate. There are a lot of people for Trump, but also a lot that say they will never vote Trump. My husband doesn’t think he can ever vote Trump, even if it’s against Hillary, he just won’t vote for President. This is really strange to me he’s never been like this before. He just doesn’t think Trump has any clue on policy. We are both voting for Cruz in the primary but I will readily vote for Trump in the General if it comes to that. I think my husband will come around if that’s the case because it will be vs a Clinton. One thing I have noticed is that what might actually help Trump get over 50% is that many NY Republicans left the party and are now registered Conservatives. They can’t vote in the Republican primary and many of my friends that did this are Cruz supporters. I am a Conservative but will not leave the Republican Party until there is a viable conservative choice. And the NY Conservative party will endorse the Republican candidate, yet their voters will not vote. This is why I tell my conservative and libertarian friends to stay registered republican.
I don’t know what happened to this thread
We were discussing Trump’s polling in New York and the possibility that he may not do as well as he thinks.
All of a sudden, some idiot starts attacking Texas.
Wow.
Cruz has done NOTHING in the Senate to advance our cause infact he has done the complete OPPOSITE.
So keep on with your constitutional conservative BS.
You people are so blinded by your home team delusions.
You from Texas as well?
Such a sensible post. Thank you.
I understand where your husband is coming from. He sounds like my husband who could take a dislike to someone and not be moved.
I despise Trump myself for many, many reasons but I’m with you on both staying with the party and voting for Trump if it comes to that.
See they will ensure 49 in ny with Diebold
Oh look Slyfox is from Texas.....BIG SURPRISE
18% of Freepers are pro-Cruz, i wonder what percentage of those are from his “home” state.
Why do we bother to respond to total idiots?
I am adding two names to people I never respond to.
They are just too dumb and nasty to bother with.
Tell me just one thing Donald Trump has done to protect the Bill of Rights.
You have a problem with me being from Texas? Accusing me of something?
I am beginning to wonder why I am wasting my time.
Altura i cannot see how or why you despise a man like Mr. Trump but i am pleased that you will vote for him if the time comes.
I will vote for Mr. Cruz as well.
Look at the born on date.
....”I don’t know what happened to this thread...We were discussing Trump’s polling in New York and the possibility that he may not do as well as he thinks.....All of a sudden, some idiot starts attacking Texas”.....
The usual suspects take over.....
I’ve determined that all this polling and conventional wisdom doesn’t work for me......especially in THIS election when it is difficult to even see the plays as the media is so fixed on Trump ‘they only have half the field in play showing.’...It’s like watching a football game but only seeing one of the teams. However that is working to Ted’s advantage.
I have noticed that the minuscule percentage of Freepers that are pro cruz comes from Texas.
Why so defensive?
If you truly believe you live in a country where that actually happens, shouldn’t you be looking for a new place to live?
Sort of a Triple J.
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