Posted on 04/15/2016 10:42:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Via Red State, not a huge deal but worth flagging in case theres another poll this weekend showing his numbers dipping a bit in New York on the eve of the primary. That would suggest a trend, and that would be a big deal given whats at stake. To be clear: Trumps going to romp in NY on Tuesday night, winning by 25 points or better, and will pick up something like 75 delegates even in a worst-case scenario. But since his path to 1,237 is so difficult, it matters a lot whether he ends up with 75 in New York or 95, which is what hed get if he sweeps the state. Every delegate he leaves on the table now will have to be made up for later; finishing with 75 in New York means hell likely need to find another 10-20 somewhere in California on June 7th, where he wont have home-field advantage.
The reason this poll is significant (apart from the enormous 14,000-person sample size) is that 50 percent is a magic number in New York. If you hit 50 statewide, you get all 11 of the states at-large delegates. If you dont, the second-place finisher gets some of them proportionally. More importantly, if you hit 50 percent in a congressional district, you get all three of that districts delegates. If you dont, you get two delegates and the second-place finisher gets one. There are 27 congressional districts, meaning that the difference between Trump hitting 49 percent in every district and hitting 50 there is 27 delegates. Thats a big haul and potentially crucial to his ability to reach 1,237. (To put it in perspective, Cruzs prize for sweeping Colorados delegate elections was 37 delegates.) So when a poll drops showing him at 49 percent statewide, we sit up and pay attention. The margins matter on Tuesday night. A lot.
If we direct our attention to the figure above, we can see that statewide he is also polling at 49%, so whether hes able to take the statewide delegates by winner-take-all rules outright is up in the air. The even better news for Trump is that hes hitting the 50% threshold in 11/27 districts and is within three percentage points of six more (see figure below). Just by keeping 50% in those 11 districts and a plurality in the others, Trump would get 65 delegates
Further, if we look at shifts between the opinion shares we observed this week (4.11-4.13) and compare them to our last poll (3.22-3.24), we dont see monumental moves against Trump across numerous districts (see figure below). We do note a generally favorable Kasich trend of between 2 and 6 points in most districts. While this is generally good, these shifts are unlikely to change the order of results, and thus unlikely to shift all-important delegate totals on Election Day. In other words, while we believe Kasich appears to be making some progress in many districts, it is not enough to change delegate totals significantly.
If Trump were to finish below 50 percent in 16 districts, thats 16 delegates going to Kasich or Cruz (assuming the second-place finisher gets at least 20 percent of the vote, which seems inevitable in a three-way race). Thats not a great outcome for Trump. If he also finishes below 50 statewide, that would cost him another four delegates by Phil Kerpens estimation. The last survey by this pollster, Optimus, taken three weeks ago had him winning 15 of New Yorks 27 districts with an outright majority, meaning that hes actually slipped a bit this month. A few days ago, Nate Silver published a state-by-state roadmap to the rest of the primaries and estimated that Trump needs 91 delegates from New York to stay on the path to 1,237. Silvers more conservative projections of how he might do there put him in the low 80s. Optimuss new data has him in the mid 70s. If theres such a thing as having a bad night when you win a big state primary by crushing your opponents, thats what it would look like.
But look: How likely is it, realistically, that Trumps going to fall short in New York on Tuesday? Optimus found 14 percent still undecided in this poll. Among that 14 percent, 17 percent are already leaning Trump more than are leaning Kasich or Cruz and another 59 percent are still making up their minds. Theres every reason to think the bulk of them will end up tilting towards the native son whos on TV 24/7. His average in NY at RCP over the last few weeks is 53.4 percent, with one recent poll putting him at 56 percent and another placing him at 60(!). Theres every reason to think hell crack 50 statewide and plenty of reason, I think, to believe that hell easily pull 50 in a majority of New Yorks districts. If were being real, there are probably eight to 10 districts where theres some suspense about the outcome, and the only suspense is whether Trump will win them with a plurality or majority. If his realistic worst-case scenario is, say, 88 delegates, then hes basically still where he needs to be to clinch.
Heres video of Ted Cruz speaking last night at the New York City GOP gala and finding himself roundly ignored, presumably because of his crack months ago about New York values. Trump can stand onstage at a national debate and smirkingly assure the country that hell issue illegal orders to the military and still be applauded by his local GOP, but God forbid you insult their parochial community pride.
(VIDEO-AT-LINK)
Dude. You don’t want a wall? I want a wall. And cages. Oh, and shock sticks. You don’t get that with Cruz.
Interesting conclusion:
“Theres every reason to think hell crack 50 statewide and plenty of reason, I think, to believe that hell easily pull 50 in a majority of New Yorks districts. If were being real, there are probably eight to 10 districts where theres some suspense about the outcome, and the only suspense is whether Trump will win them with a plurality or majority. If his realistic worst-case scenario is, say, 88 delegates, then hes basically still where he needs to be to clinch.”
With a beautiful door. His words, not mine.
Cruz/Kasich wing of the GOPe grasping at straws.
The last poll I saw had Trump at 60%. I guess you like to cherry pick the polls that suit your purpose.
This poll is from Optimus, the same company that had Trump leading by 10 points in Wisconsin a few days before he lost. And all the Cruz supporters called the poll garbage and cited how inaccurate this company is. Yet, now I bet they will use it to try and say Trump is weakening because that’s what they want to believe.
So we have an unreliable polling company, even Cruz supporters agreed 2 weeks ago, that goes against every other poll that’s been released. So yeah, don’t even bother...
This poll is from Optimus, the same company that had Trump leading by 10 points in Wisconsin a few days before he lost. And all the Cruz supporters called the poll garbage and cited how inaccurate this company is. Yet, now I bet they will use it to try and say Trump is weakening because that’s what they want to believe.
So we have an unreliable polling company, even Cruz supporters agreed 2 weeks ago, that goes against every other poll that’s been released. So yeah, don’t even bother...
You can keep your cages and sticks.
Canada doesn’t have a Bill of Rights...
Trump “nobody reads the Bible more than me.”
Trump has a favorite verse. “It’s an eye for an eye”
Since he knows little about the Bible or biblical history, he totally misinterpreted that verse.
The verse was intended to limit vengeance to the nature of the offense. People were being murdered in response to minor offenses.
So it really means, “only an eye for an eye.”
I want a wall but I do not want to become the people we are fighting. I want to defeat them, not become them.
Hmmmmmm. I think I’ll vote for Donald Trump in November.
Everything is beautiful with Trump including that door which will allow him to continue to hire illegals.
He missed the best part of the article. Just skimmed it.
Do you EVER give it a rest?
You are obsessed.....you need help.
you are unhinged, you remind me of the hometown boy, root for his corrupt home team no matter what.
evidence of a very weak mind.
I really, really, really hope you don't consider this the measure of a man, either in your eyes or God's.
If so, even if you know ALL the bible and ALL the biblical history, you don't understand one word of it.
All the states seem to have convoluted rules. I only hope that Trump is on the ball and doesn’t lose the votes he is counting on.
I would hate to see Trump have to throw New York to the wolves along with Colorado if he doesn’t get his rightful share of votes.
Wouldn’t that be something.
Trump has consistently under performed his poll numbers and I’m guessing that may be true in New York.
No kidding
Well, I understand that particular verse which is more than Trump does.
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