Posted on 04/07/2016 5:11:02 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Donald Trump holds a seven-point lead over Ted Cruz in a new California Field Poll, but his support in Southern California is a mixed bag - as the Republican frontrunner faces a large deficit in Los Angeles County while drawing broad support in surrounding Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
The Field Research Corporation poll released Thursday shows Trump holding 39 percent of the support among Republicans identified as likely voters in the June 7 primary, while the Texas senator has the backing of 32 percent. Ohio Gov. John Kasich trailed both with 18 percent, while 11 percent remained undecided.
One thing the real estate mogul has going is that much of his support is coming from people who previously backed former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in the state’s recall of Gov. Gray Davis in 2003.
Schwarzenegger, who is backing Kasich, ran as a political outsider on a crowded ballot in 2003, when anger at Davis resulted in a recall election.
In the new poll, 54 percent of those likely Republican voters who backed Schwarzenegger now support Trump. Cruz had the backing of only 21 percent that supported the former governor and movie star.
Perhaps troubling for Trump — who canceled a speaking engagement Friday at his golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes to stump in New York — is that he trails Cruz by 11 points in the state’s most populous county, Los Angeles.
The poll was conducted between March 14 and April 4, and has a 3.2 percent margin of error. The questions were asked on the heels of what has been widely regarded as Trump’s worst week of the election cycle after his campaign manager was charged with battery against a reporter, and Trump said women who have abortions — if the procedure were made illegal — should be punished.
Still, Mark Vafiades, chairman of the Los Angeles County Republican Party, said the polling is too far ahead of the primary to reveal much.
“It seems like Trump had a rough week, and I know people say you either love Trump or hate him, and you either love Cruz or hate him, but that’s not true,” Vafiades said. “People can go back and forth between the two.”
In surrounding counties — including San Bernardino, Riverside and Orange — Trump has his widest lead: 45 percent to 23 percent for Cruz.
Riverside County Republican Party Chairman Scott Mann said there haven’t been any straw polls conducted in his region, but he thinks the conservative Cruz plays well with the constituency there. But he said because California isn’t a winner-take-all state, “all three will get a handful of delegates.”
He said Cruz and Kasich have been organizing leadership teams in the county and he has heard from the Cruz campaign that they will open offices in Cochella Valley and Temecula in the next couple of weeks. He has not been in contact with the Trump campaign.
“Trump people have been doing corner rallies, but it’s not organized,” he said.
Orange County Republican Chairman Fred Whitaker said Cruz has been building a strong ground game since late last year in California and already has an office in Costa Mesa. He also said while he’s been in touch regularly with the Cruz and Kasich campaigns, he hasn’t heard anything from Trump.
“He’s a mass-media star running a mass-media campaign,” Whitaker said. He noted he didn’t find out about Trump’s now-cancelled Friday speech in Ranch Palos Verdes until a CNN reporter called to tell him about it.
The three candidates are vying for the Republican presidential nomination in Cleveland this summer and Trump leads with 743 delegates to 517 for Cruz. A candidates needs 1,237 delegates to win the nomination outright and avoid a contested or brokered convention.
If it goes to a brokered or contested convention, 52 percent of Republicans in the poll believe the nomination should be given to Trump as the delegate leader, while 36 percent say someone else should be chosen.
But Whitaker said it’s important for a candidate to have more than 50 percent of the delegates to unify around.
California is the big prize with 172 delegates at stake, but they are divvied up by congressional districts - three delegates per district with 10 at-large delegates. The presidential candidate who wins any of the state’s 53 congressional districts will win all three delegates. The 10 at-large delegates are awarded to the candidate who has the highest vote total statewide.
Whitaker said a lot of this in uncharted territory for California Republicans.
“It’s kind of refreshing,” he said. “We haven’t had a significant presidential primary here in a long time.”
I think Trump is Schwarzenegger II and plenty can see it.
I remember how people were so excited about The Governator, very much like how they are excited about The Trumpinator.
If this article is correct, it seems to be many of the same people.
We’ll you have no clue. So there ya have it.
“We’ll you have no clue. So there ya have it.”
Quite the well reasoned argument.
What is your opinion on Trump’s total support for the police?
It's all hands on deck to stop the only presidential candidate who wants to save America from the cheap labor plutocrats.
Ann Coulter is nuts.
Are there any Kennedys in Trump's family?
-- Quadrupling the number of foreign guest workers to help ranchers and farmers get cheap labor: Cruz was for it, and now is against it.
-- Legalizing illegal aliens: Cruz was for it, and now is against it.
-- The Trans-Pacific Partnership deal: Cruz was for it, and now is against it.
-- Building a wall: Cruz was against it, and now is for it.
Yup, that's some crazy talk there, Cult Leader III.
“Are there any Kennedys in Trump’s family?”
Will the Kushners do?
—
Kushner is a major donor to the Democratic Party, most notably to former New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey.[16] In 2005, following an investigation by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey,[16] Kushner was convicted of making illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion and witness tampering.[17] Chris Christie, then the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, negotiated a plea agreement with him and he was sentenced to two years in prison.[1][18][19] He has since been released.[12][20]
me too. I voted for McClintock.
You could see right through the Arnold.
I was so angry at Hannity for backing the Arnold.
He won the election and messed up California royally..
another Democrat that wore Republican clothes to try and hide.
I live in Los Angeles and EVERYONE I have talked to says NO they won’t vote for Trump at all.He is NOT popular in our area.
Lots of Bernie stickers...and Cruz. But haven’t seen one TRUMP yet.
Perfectly stated.
Thanks.
I hope people learned their lesson for this primary coming up.
Well, you sound like ya haven't a clue. Am I supposed to lie like Lying Cruz?
What is your opinion on Trump’s total support for the police?
Cops? LOL! You've got to be kidding? Trump has said he supports the cops 100% when they're in the right. He's stated this dozens of times. And I support Trump 100%.
Any more questions regarding law enforcement?
Good luck.
Btw, most Trump supporters don't have a need for that, "Bumper sticker" mentality. There was even articles about this. Most don't advertise and broadcast it and see no reason to. Why would I care who you or someone else supports? Ya think your going to change someones mind by slapping on some tacky Cruz bumper sticker?
Come on.
Luck has little to do with this election.
I meant good luck to you, personally.
Did they learn nothing?!
Well good luck to you too. You’re going to need all you can get to convince millions of distraught, lied to, beat down, robbed and looted Californians, in order to get them to vote for yet another lying lawyer turned career politician.
It’s a closed primary.
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