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Why I still believe Donald Trump will never be president
Vox ^ | January 30, 2016 | David Roberts

Posted on 01/30/2016 3:24:55 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

As Donald Trump continues his pundit-defying dominance of the national polls, with early primaries just days away, the once-unthinkable has become all too thinkable: Could Trump actually pull this off? Could he become president?

I'm going to stake out a firm answer: no. Absent extreme and unlikely circumstances*, Trump will never be president.

Jack Shafer argues that Trump's success so far is a "black swan" event, an unpredictable and unrepeatable concatenation of improbable circumstances. That sounds about right.

But just because some political rules and conventions have been violated doesn't mean they've all vanished. Just because Trump makes no sense doesn't mean common sense has become worthless. One black swan does not foretell a flock of black swans....

(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...


TOPICS: New York; Campaign News; Issues; Parties; Polls
KEYWORDS: 1stcanadiansenator; 2016election; 2016trump; cnsrvtvtreehouse; d20roll; dailykos; davidroberts; demagogicparty; disbelieve; dungeonsanddragons; election2016; erickerickson; glennbeck; liberal; marklevin; markosmoulitsas; megynkelly; memebuilding; newyork; partisanmediashill; partisanmediashills; pinkstain; pinkstate; politico; redstate; redstategathering; rogerailes; sundance; tds; trump; vox
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

He’s coming.....


61 posted on 01/30/2016 6:03:51 PM PST by Thomas Truxtun
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To: GingisK; traderrob6
Traderrob6 put a link to RCP's average of national polls (repeated below) in post #24. In the 3 most recent polls, Trump loses 2 and wins one. The win by Trump is within the margin of error (1%). One of the two wins by Clinton is at the margin of error (3%).

Scroll down, and you can see the historical polls going back several months. In ALL of the polls (and there are quite a number) Trump wins precisely four ... the one 1% win above and three others where he pulls it off by 5% each.

At the top of the page, you can choose other “head-to-head” matchups. Cruz, for example, beats Hillary two out of four recent polls and ties one. One of the wins is within the margin of error (2%). Hillary only wins in one of four recent polls against Cruz. Go down the list of historical results, and you find that Cruz has consistently lost to Hillary until just the past month or so. His wins are all recent.

Rubio does even better.

Please, do not take my word for it. Look at the polls. Trump does worse than any other republican candidate against Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

62 posted on 01/30/2016 6:06:09 PM PST by Stegall Tx (Why are we in this handbasket, and why is it getting so warm? (stolen tagline))
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To: exit82; traderrob6

I am sorry. I credited Traderrob6 with your work. I apologize for not crediting the proper source.


63 posted on 01/30/2016 6:07:46 PM PST by Stegall Tx (Why are we in this handbasket, and why is it getting so warm? (stolen tagline))
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To: deport

Sadly, Hillary no chance, she barley won in Iowa yesterday. Bernie is stronger in NH.


64 posted on 02/02/2016 7:39:13 AM PST by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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