Posted on 01/19/2016 6:07:25 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
In a few weeks' time, it's possible that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz will steamroll their way through Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina and dominate the so-called "SEC Primary" -- the collection of 13 mostly Southern states that will vote on March 1 -- horrifying many GOP elected officials and depriving any other candidate of a night to celebrate.
Yet even if that happens, it's still possible that Marco Rubio (or another more establishment-friendly candidate) could end up with the nomination, thanks to quirks of the GOP's complex delegate math.
The GOP's primary calendar is surprisingly front-loaded with states friendly to insurgents like Trump and Cruz. But because of Republican National Committee rules, all but one of these states will award their delegates on a proportional basis, intentionally making it difficult for any one candidate to build a durable or commanding lead.
Instead, Florida and Ohio, which tend to support more conventional Republicans, are likelier to shape the race's destiny than Iowa or South Carolina. That's because they will award a whopping 99 and 72 delegates, respectively, in huge winner-take-all primaries on March 15.....
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
Near the end it seems more become winner take all vs proportional delegate distribution.
A 33% plurality becomes good as a 70% blowout in some cases.
GOPe’s plan:
Step 1: use Palin to decapitate Cruz, so Trump becomes “inevitable”.
Step 2: keep the establishment field open until the liberal States have their primary. Divide.
Step 3: consolidate on one establishment candidate. Time to conquer.
Step 4: constantly hammer Trump until he gets none of the big all-delegate States.
Step 5: Trump’s delegate count will be lower than the establishment candidate’s.
Step 6: The establishment candidate becomes inevitable.
Step 7: Trump bows out. GOPe pays the lip service to prop Trump’s ego.
Step 8: The establishment candidate “reconciles”. Beat Hillary!
Step 9: Lose in a landslide.
No establishment plan will work against Trump. He’s gonna win every state in the primary. He came out today and listed about 10 Southern states that just came out with new polls and he’s up by double digits in all of them. Even a Cruz win in Iowa means nothing because Cruz can’t win any other state and that includes Southern states. Trump is destroying him everywhere except Iowa, where it’s tied. The Palin endorsement might be all that’s needed for Trump to carry Iowa. But he doesn’t really need it.
This just makes me sad.
Should this happen, for the first time in my life I will not vote.
I believe this is more wishful thinking...
The only reason Kasich is in there was to garner support in Ohio and then quit and pledge his delegates to Jeb.
Neither anticipated just how popular Trump would be and how is message would resonate.
It doesn't matter if you like Trump or Cruz or someone else, Jeb! will be the eventual nominee via bought Republican Convention GOPe Delegates and Super Delegates, who actually choose the eventual winner.
The fix is in and has been for awhile.
Get used to disappointment/treachery.
Since June 16, 2015, the GOP has been playing checkers and Donald Trump has been playing chess. Right now, Trump is playing chess, Mah Jong and doing a crossword puzzle...simultaneously.
Don’t know if you saw this;
The Untruth About Donald Trump
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3385568/posts
42,000 views in one day.
This guy meticulously destroys all the lying memes about Trump.
Have hope!
For all his flaws, Trump has exposed most of the GOP contenders as a bunch of dull bores. He has single-handedly exposed Hillary Clinton as the fat, haggard old lesbian she is. And Bill Clinton has hardly even been seen on the campaign trail since Trump scolded his wife for enabling that old pervert.
Early on in 2015, Jeb was supposed to be inevitable. Now he’s barely visible. I don’t think things worked out like the GOPe expected.
Before long a lot of people will realized that Trump’s last name is not “andCruz”
Well after Iowa front loaded for Trump anyway.
They need to GIVE IT UP. It’s over. Likely Trump, possibly Cruz, but that’s it, at least for 2016.
Only problem with that theory is, Rubio and Jebbie are running #3 and #4 in their home state of Florida. That does not point to an establishment candidate winning the nomination.
“GOPe’s plan:”
With comments.
“Step 1: use Palin to decapitate Cruz, so Trump becomes inevitable.”
I seriously doubt Palin takes marching orders from that bunch, after what they did to her in 2008. It was her choice to support Trump.
“Step 2: keep the establishment field open until the liberal States have their primary. Divide.”
Agree, but not sure how that helps the GOPe
“Step 3: consolidate on one establishment candidate. Time to conquer.”
They’re having a tough time, now Kasich is popping up his head a bit. It’s hard to see any of the top 4 establishment types dropping out for quite a while.
“Step 4: constantly hammer Trump until he gets none of the big all-delegate States.”
They’ve been doing that for 7 months, hasn’t worked yet.
“Step 5: Trump’s delegate count will be lower than the establishment candidate’s.”
Only if the base decides they really do want Amnesty. Don’t see that happening.
“Step 6: The establishment candidate becomes inevitable.”
Same as above.
“Step 7: Trump bows out. GOPe pays the lip service to prop Trump’s ego.”
They won’t get that far.
“Step 8: The establishment candidate “reconcilesâ€. Beat Hillary!”
If your scenario does work out, I agree, all our side will be run on is fear of the Democrat (for the 3 time in row).
“Step 9: Lose in a landslide.”
If the above does happen, I agree...we will get creamed, yet again.
It’s obvious Trump’s ahead. Look at all of the Trump attack threads on Free Republic today. Shows desperation by the Cruz supporters posting those threads. Ratio is at least 10/1 (10 attack threads on Trump for every 1 attack thread on Cruz).
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